The Telegraph:
The EU refuses a soft Brexit, so we must invoke the WTO immediately
1 February 2018
An authoritative report last year by a team under MIT trade expert John Van Reenen for the Centre for Economic Performance estimated that a WTO option would cut British living standards by 2.7pc over time. But it pushed the losses to a range of 6.3pc to 9.4pc once “dynamic” effects are included. This is to rely heavily on the “black box” of productivity, a malleable concept. I would presume that the Treasury uses the same method since Prof Van Reenen once advised them.