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Policy analyses and reports

Summaries and analysis of current policy and economic developments. These reports are written in an accessible way for non-specialists. Issues covered include: Brexit, education, immigration, growth, social mobility and the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Image from CEP Covid series cover. Designer: Raphael Whittle
Learning loss since lockdown: variation across the home nations

Lee Elliot Major, Andrew Eyles and Stephen Machin examine data from across the UK to reveal the extent of learning losses that have evolved in the four nations over the year of the pandemic. Read more...
Image from CEP Covid series cover. Designer: Raphael Whittle
City of dreams no more, a year on: worklessness and active labour market policies in urban India

Key findings from a new field survey to assess the long-term impact of Covid-19 on urban workers in low-income areas of India. Read more...

All Policy analyses and reports

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
Jobs, growth, and productivity after coronavirus

The Committee will examine how the Government can reduce and mitigate economic scarring and job losses after the pandemic, how much difference the Government can make to economic growth, and what has caused the UK's prod...Read more...

Anna Valero

12 July 2021

CEP Covid-19 analysis
Learning loss since lockdown: variation across the home nations

Empirical analysis of secondary microdata, bespoke social mobility surveys and administrative school attendance data reveal the extent of learning losses that have evolved in the four nations of the UK over the year of t...Read more...

Lee Elliot Major, Andrew Eyles and Stephen Machin

7 July 2021

CEP Covid-19 analysis
City of dreams no more, a year on: worklessness and active labour market policies in urban India

This report provides key findings from a new field survey to assess the long-term impact of Covid-19 on urban workers in low-income areas of India. The survey took place during February and March 2021, just before the s...Read more...

Swati Dhingra and Fjolla Kondirolli

2 July 2021

CEP Covid-19 analysis
The impacts of Covid-19 and Brexit on the UK economy: early evidence in 2021

We use real-time firm survey data to describe trends in the UK economy in early 2021. As of April 2021, business activity and expectations for the future have improved. However, real wage growth is down and firms are rep...Read more...

Josh De Lyon and Swati Dhingra

6 May 2021

CEP Covid-19 analysis
The pandemic and the housing market: a British story

When Covid-19 struck, the British housing market went into free-fall. Land Registry data show prices, transactions and construction all tumbled. But demand was boosted both by the general measures taken to support the ec...Read more...

Paul Cheshire, Christian A. L. Hilber and Olivier Schöni

30 March 2021

CEP Covid-19 analysis
Covid-19 and the self-employed - ten months into the crisis

Almost a year into the Covid-19 crisis, it has become widely acknowledged that UK self-employment has been particularly hard hit. Here we continue our series investigating the experience of self-employed workers througho...Read more...

Jack Blundell, Stephen Machin and Maria Ventura

2 March 2021

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
Home Office preparedness for Covid-19 (Coronavirus)

In March 2020 the Home Affairs Committee launched an inquiry into Home Office preparedness for Covid-19. Between April and August it reported on different aspects of Home Office policy and operations during the first ph...Read more...

Ria Ivandic and Tom Kirchmaier

24 February 2021

CEP Covid-19 analysis
Recovering from the first Covid-19 lockdown: Economic impacts of the UK's Eat Out to Help Out scheme

We evaluate some of the economic impacts of the UK’s Eat Out to Help Out (EOTHO) scheme on the food service sector. EOTHO subsidised the cost of eating out, with a 50% discount Mondays to Wednesdays in August 2020. We ex...Read more...

Nicolás González-Pampillón, Gonzalo Nunez-Chaim and Katharina Ziegler

10 February 2021

CEP Covid-19 analysis
Prices and inflation in a pandemic - a micro data approach

The Covid-19 lockdowns and recession are the most exceptional economic events in living memory and will impact the economy for years to come. One vital channel is via price changes. Price rises and cuts alter real wages,...Read more...

Richard Davies

4 February 2021

CEP Brexit analysis
Disunited Kingdom? Brexit, trade and Scottish independence

Scotland is a small, open economy that mostly trades with the rest of the UK. There is around six times more trade between Scotland and the rest of the UK than predicted by a standard gravity trade model. Scottish indepe...Read more...

Hanwei Huang, Thomas Sampson and Patrick Schneider

3 February 2021

CEP Covid-19 analysis
A major wave of UK business closures by April 2021? The scale of the problem and what can be done

This report presents an analysis of the financial health of UK businesses, which shows that immediate action is needed to prevent a wave of corporate failure in early April. We cannot delay action. Now is also the moment...Read more...

Peter Lambert and John Van Reenen

27 January 2021

CEP Covid-19 analysis
Labour market shocks during the Covid-19 pandemic: inequalities and child outcomes

We study the effect of negative labour market shocks borne by parents during the Covid-19 crisis on resource and time investments in children and the channels through which negative labour market shocks experienced by pa...Read more...

Claudia Hupkau, Ingo Isphording, Stephen Machin and Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela

18 December 2020

CEP Covid-19 analysis
Innovation for a strong and sustainable recovery

In the recovery from Covid-19, innovation and diffusion will be key to addressing several structural challenges facing the UK economy. These include improving the UK’s longstanding poor productivity performance, addressi...Read more...

Ralf Martin, Sam Unsworth, Anna Valero and Dennis Verhoeven

18 December 2020

CEP Covid-19 analysis
Covid-19 and changing crime trends in England and Wales

We document changing crime trends in England and Wales in the context of the current global pandemic. During the first lockdown that span from mid-March to mid-May 2020 there was a decrease in all crime categories except...Read more...

Tom Kirchmaier and Carmen Villa-Llera

17 December 2020

CEP Covid-19 analysis
Covid-19 and the self-employed: six months into the crisis

Six months after Covid-19 first hit, it is clear that it is the greatest economic crisis of the modern age. The economy has contracted far more rapidly than in previous crises, with GDP dropping by a record 19.5 per cent...Read more...

Jack Blundell, Stephen Machin and Maria Ventura

10 November 2020

CEP Covid-19 analysis
Generation COVID: emerging work and education inequalities

The purpose of this brief paper is to present initial findings from the recently collected LSE-CEP Social Mobility survey, which was undertaken as part of our UKRI project ‘Generation COVID and Social Mobility: Evidence ...Read more...

Lee Elliot Major, Andrew Eyles and Stephen Machin

26 October 2020

CEP Covid-19 analysis
Jobs for a strong and sustainable recovery from Covid-19

The UK’s future economic, social and environmental prosperity will be shaped by how it deals with, and recovers from, the impact of Covid-19. This paper sets out coordinated net-zero-aligned investments which the UK can ...Read more...

Pia Andres, Giorgia Cecchinato, Penny Mealy, Charlotte Taylor, Sam Unsworth and Anna Valero

19 October 2020

CEP Covid-19 analysis
The business response to Covid-19: the CEP-CBI survey on technology adoption

We present new data from a survey of 375 UK businesses conducted in July 2020 in partnership with the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), which seeks to understand the way in which firms have innovated in response t...Read more...

Capucine Riom and Anna Valero

30 September 2020

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
Post-pandemic economic growth: Industrial Strategy

In our inquiry into Post-pandemic economic growth: Industrial strategy we will look at the options available to Government to secure our economic recovery from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. We will want to exa...Read more...

Anna Valero

16 September 2020

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
Channel crossings, migration and asylum-seeking routes through the EU

This inquiry will examine the reasons behind the growth in migrants crossing the English Channel in small boats. It will look at the role of criminal gangs in facilitating the growth of this form of illegal immigration a...Read more...

Alan Manning

16 September 2020

CVER Briefing Note
Post-18 education – who is taking the different routes and how much do they earn?

This paper describes the educational trajectories and labour market outcomes for people who completed their GCSEs between 2002 and 2006. Our long span of longitudinal data enables us to follow these individuals through t...Read more...

Jack Britton, Hector Espinoza, Sandra McNally, Stefan Speckesser, Imran Tahir and Anna Vignoles

11 September 2020

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
Employment and Covid-19

The Committee will examine the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the labour market and consider what urgent measures should be taken to protect and create jobs. It will also examine how the labour market may change as ...Read more...

Sandra McNally

1 September 2020

CEP Covid-19 analysis
City of dreams no more: the impact of Covid-19 on urban workers in India

Many developing economies have large informal sectors and growing urban youth populations, who lack basic social protections at work. The CEP surveyed 8,500 workers aged 18 to 40 in urban India to understand their experi...Read more...

Shania Bhalotia, Swati Dhingra and Fjolla Kondirolli

1 September 2020

CEP Covid-19 analysis
What can previous recessions tell us about the Covid-19 downturn?

The labour market effects of the Covid-19 crisis measured as of June 2020 are compared with the three most recent UK recessions: the early 1980s, the early 1990s, and the downturn induced by the global financial crisis i...Read more...

Brian Bell, Mihai Codreanu and Stephen Machin

17 August 2020

CEP Covid-19 analysis
Covid-19 and Brexit: Real-time updates on business performance in the United Kingdom

Nearly four months have passed since the UK went into lockdown to restrict the spread of Covid-19. The health effects have been severe, and an inevitable consequence of the lockdown was a huge 20 per cent decline in GDP ...Read more...

Josh De Lyon and Swati Dhingra

29 July 2020

CVER Briefing Note
What future for apprenticeships after coronavirus?

The Covid-19 pandemic outbreak and the ensuing economic uncertainty caused interruptions to apprenticeship training. This is putting the future of apprenticeships at risk just at the time when they will be most needed ...Read more...

Guglielmo Ventura

14 July 2020

CEP Covid-19 analysis
Strategy, investment and policy for a strong and sustainable recovery: an action plan

The UK and the world have suffered disruption and hardship from the COVID-19 pandemic on an immense scale. Together with the tragic consequences of the health crisis, there is now a real risk of protracted global depress...Read more...

Nick Robins, James Rydge, Nicholas Stern, Sam Unsworth, Anna Valero and Dimitri Zenghelis

2 July 2020

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
Economic impact of coronavirus

The Treasury Committee launched the first stage of this inquiry on 18 March when it issued a call for evidence on the speed, effectiveness and reach of the Government's and Bank of England’s immediate financial responses...Read more...

Jack Blundell and Stephen Machin

1 June 2020

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
Delivering the Government’s infrastructure commitments through major projects

The Government has promised the largest investment in infrastructure for decades. The £640bn promised in the Budget speech and £5bn of Coronavirus "bounce-back" investment is earmarked for transport, schools, housing an...Read more...

Henry G. Overman

1 June 2020

CEP Covid-19 analysis
Covid-19 and social mobility

Governments are having to balance short- and long-term interests, and the trade-offs they generate, as they try to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic. Social distancing measures may limit the number of immediate deaths f...Read more...

Lee Elliot Major and Stephen Machin

28 May 2020

CEP Covid-19 analysis
Self-employment in the Covid-19 crisis

The Covid-19 shock is one of the largest economic shocks that has taken place in living memory. The crisis has served to highlight the challenges governments face in extending social insurance to self-employed workers, f...Read more...

Jack Blundell and Stephen Machin

22 May 2020

CEP Covid-19 analysis
Work, care and gender during the Covid-19 crisis

The Covid-19 crisis has especially hit service sectors with frequent social interactions, in which women are over-represented. At the same time, if not directly subject to the lock-down, women are more likely to hold job...Read more...

Claudia Hupkau and Barbara Petrongolo

14 May 2020

CEP Covid-19 analysis
Covid-19 school shutdowns: what will they do to our children's education?

Evidence from unexpected temporary school closures and reduced instruction time suggests school closures will reduce educational achievement, both in the short and long term. Children from disadvantaged backgrounds are ...Read more...

Andrew Eyles, Stephen Gibbons and Piero Montebruno

7 May 2020

CEP report
Seizing sustainable growth opportunities from zero emission passenger vehicles in the UK

This is a Special report for the LSE Growth Commission, produced with the Centre for Economic Performance, that provides a set of actionable recommendations to the UK government to drive sustainable growth in the context...Read more...

Ralf Martin, Sam Unsworth, Anna Valero and Dennis Verhoeven

13 February 2020

CEP industrial strategy paper
Has the Financial Crisis Undermined Credit Reallocation in the United Kingdom?

The global financial crisis and its aftermath heightened awareness of the role of credit frictions in affecting aggregate economic performance. An important question is whether capital is being allocated to its most prod...Read more...

Daniel Mead and Isabelle Roland

6 February 2020

CVER Briefing Note
Exploring trends in apprenticeship training around the introduction of the Apprenticeship Levy: emerging evidence using a matched apprentice-employer dataset

Read more...

Alice Battiston, Gavan Conlon, Gavan Conlon, Andy Dickerson, Steven McIntosh and Pietro Patrignani

27 January 2020

CEP election analysis
#GE2019Economists: the research evidence on key issues for voters in the 2019 UK General Election

The general election of 2019 was called after negotiations over how the UK should leave the European Union became increasingly tortuous. While Brexit may have been the trigger for the election, it was far from being the ...Read more...

4 December 2019

CEP election analysis
Policing and crime

A long period of austerity and budget cuts in policing that started when Theresa May became Home Secretary may be coming to an end. As austerity bit and budget cuts were implemented, this considerably reduced the size of...Read more...

Tom Kirchmaier

29 November 2019

CEP election analysis
Energy and climate change

UK greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are declining and have been declining for some time. As of 2018, the UK emitted 449 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e). That corresponds to a reduction of 43% relative to 1990 lev...Read more...

Ralf Martin, Petra Sarapatkova and Dennis Verhoeven

29 November 2019

CEP election analysis
Health and social care

The National Health Service (NHS) is arguably the one national institution that unifies the country in terms of general public support. But there is growing concern about the long-term sustainability of the NHS, with 57%...Read more...

Michael Anderson, Alistair McGuire and Elias Mossialos

28 November 2019

CEP election analysis
Immigration

Immigration remains a highly contentious issue and its purported effects on the labour market and the wider economy are still highly contested. The discussion in this briefing is intended as a short overview of what we k...Read more...

Jonathan Wadsworth

28 November 2019

CEP election analysis
Housing

Housing affordability is a key concern of an ever-larger fraction of UK voters who are crammed into artificially limited space. It also underlies the sense of being shut out of prosperity and unable to escape declining l...Read more...

Paul Cheshire and Christian A. L. Hilber

27 November 2019

CEP election analysis
Education and skills

Debates about how to improve education and skills are likely to be an important theme in the run-up to the general election. This briefing summarises evidence on education and skills from the Centre for Economic Performa...Read more...

Jo Blanden, Sandra McNally and Gill Wyness

27 November 2019

CEP election analysis
The UK economy: policies for investment and productivity growth

Since the global financial crisis, the UK has been grappling with persistent poor productivity performance. While a number of factors have been at play, reduced investment due to austerity harmed growth in the early year...Read more...

Anna Valero and John Van Reenen

25 November 2019

CEP election analysis
Brexit economics

Since the UK voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, Brexit has dominated UK politics and economic policy. Three and a half years after the referendum, the UK is yet to leave the EU, there is no certainty over if...Read more...

Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson

25 November 2019

CVER Briefing Note
Inequality in education and labour market participation of young people across English localities:An exploration based on Longitudinal Education Outcomes (LEO) data

Currently, 792,000 16-24-year olds in the UK – 11.5% of the age group – are Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET), but not much is known about how this differs by local area. In this Briefing Note, we provide c...Read more...

Janine Boshoff, Jamie Moore and Stefan Speckesser

25 November 2019

CEP election analysis
People, places and politics

Economic performance varies widely between the towns, cities and regions of the UK. On some measures, this variation has widened since the financial crisis. These disparities have already proved to be a key theme in the ...Read more...

Henry G. Overman

22 November 2019

CEP election analysis
The labour market

The UK labour market, at first glance, seems to be playing at Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde. Employment (in terms of both levels and rates) is at record highs, yet wage growth has been extraordinarily weak. One view is that thes...Read more...

Rui Costa and Stephen Machin

21 November 2019

CEP election analysis
Social mobility

Debates over how to improve life prospects for people irrespective of their family background promise to be a key theme in the run-up to the 2019 General Election. This briefing summarises evidence on social mobility fro...Read more...

Lee Elliot Major and Stephen Machin

20 November 2019

CEP Brexit analysis
The economic impact of Boris Johnson’s Brexit proposals

The Prime Minister Boris Johnson has set out a means of escaping the Brexit stalemate, but his new Brexit proposals have, as yet, not managed to overcome the impasse. What has been striking, though, is the extent to whic...Read more...

Matt Bevington, Hanwei Huang, Anand Menon, Jonathan Portes, Jill Rutter and Thomas Sampson

22 October 2019

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
Decarbonisation of the UK Economy and Green Finance inquiry

The Treasury Committee has re-launched an inquiry into the decarbonisation of the UK economy and green finance. This inquiry will scrutinise the role of HM Treasury, regulators and financial services firms in supporting ...Read more...

Anna Valero

1 July 2019

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
Regional Imbalances in the UK Economy inquiry

A new inquiry into regional imbalances in the UK economy has been launched by the Treasury Committee. The inquiry will examine the nature of regional imbalances in economic growth and explore how regional data can be use...Read more...

Henry G. Overman

1 July 2019

CVER Briefing Note
Post-16 Aspirations and Outcomes: Comparison of the LSYPE Cohorts

CVER was commissioned by the Department for Education to undertake research in support of the current Review of Post-18 Education (The Augar Review). This research brief summarises some of the key findings that came out ...Read more...

Steven McIntosh

25 June 2019

CEP Brexit analysis
Trade and worker deskilling: how the post-Brexit pound has hurt Britain’s workers

The unexpected result of the Brexit referendum, working through the rapid depreciation of the sterling, has hurt British workers. New CEP work shows that the big drop in the value of the pound caused a rise in import pri...Read more...

Rui Costa, Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin

29 May 2019

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
Islamophobia inquiry 

Read more...

Ria Ivandic

1 May 2019

CEP Brexit analysis
Economic performance since the EU referendum

The impact of the Brexit vote can now begin to be evaluated with greater accuracy than previous forecasts, thanks to the emergence of new data. In the run-up to the UK’s referendum on membership of the European Union (EU...Read more...

Josh De Lyon and Swati Dhingra

21 March 2019

CEP Brexit analysis
Voting with their money: Brexit and outward investment by UK firms

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has grown rapidly in recent decades. Through FDI, firms headquartered in the UK can own and operate subsidiaries throughout the world. FDI opportunities give firms a choice between investi...Read more...

Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain, Dennis Novy and Thomas Sampson

11 February 2019

CEP industrial strategy paper
Sustainable growth in the UK: seizing opportunities from technological change and the transition to a low-carbon economy

An overarching strategy for sustainable growth is required to address the dual challenges of restoring productivity growth and managing a transition to a low-carbon economy – priorities in both the UK and other G20 count...Read more...

James Rydge, Ralf Martin and Anna Valero

3 December 2018

CEP Brexit analysis
The economic consequences of the Brexit deal

Amidst the political fighting and fevered speculation about leadership challenges and parliamentary defeats for the government, one crucial issue seems to have been lost from sight. The deal negotiated with the European ...Read more...

Peter Levell, Anand Menon, Jonathan Portes and Thomas Sampson

28 November 2018

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
Intergenerational Fairness and Provision Committee Committee

Intergenerational fairness is an increasingly pressing concern for both policy makers and the public. It is exacerbated by an ageing population, the global financial crisis and successive government policies that have fa...Read more...

Christian A. L. Hilber

6 November 2018

CEP industrial strategy paper
Universities and industrial strategy in the UK: review of evidence and implications for policy

As producers of human capital, innovation and as large institutions in their own right, UK universities can make important contributions across the five foundations that underpin the government’s Industrial Strategy: peo...Read more...

Ghazala Azmat, Richard Murphy, Anna Valero and Gill Wyness

4 October 2018

CEP industrial strategy paper
Unlocking SME productivity: review of recent evidence and implications for the UK’s industrial strategy

Improving productivity is one of the main goals of the government’s Industrial Strategy. Since the UK is a nation of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), the question arises whether SMEs have a role to play in indu...Read more...

Isabelle Roland

2 October 2018

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
Business productivity review

The Business Productivity Review is the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and HM Treasury response to the call for evidence. It outlines plans to spend £56 million to support business productivity, ...Read more...

John Van Reenen

1 October 2018

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
Post Brexit migration inquiry

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Alan Manning

1 October 2018

CEP industrial strategy paper
Local Economic Effects of Brexit: Factsheet

Read more...

Nikhil Datta and Swati Dhingra

1 October 2018

CEP industrial strategy paper
Do Apprenticeships Pay? Evidence for England

The importance of apprenticeships for early labour market transitions varies across countries and over time. In recent times, there has been a policy drive to increase the number of people undertaking apprenticeships in ...Read more...

Chiara Cavaglia, Sandra McNally and Guglielmo Ventura

7 September 2018

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
Independent panel report to the Review of Post-1 8 Education and Funding

Read more...

Sandra McNally

1 September 2018

CEP report
Urban Capacity and Economic Output

This report was commissioned by the National Infrastructure Commission as part of the evidence base for the National Infrastructure Assessment. The views expressed and recommendations set out in this report are the autho...Read more...

Stephen Gibbons and Daniel J. Graham

9 August 2018

CEP industrial strategy paper
Apprenticeships in England: what does research tell us?

Read more...

Sandra McNally

12 July 2018

CVER Briefing Note
Apprenticeships in England: what does research tell us?

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Sandra McNally

12 July 2018

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
Life chances inquiry

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Jo Blanden

1 July 2018

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
Select Committee on Intergenerational Fairness and Provision. Tackling intergenerational unfairness

Read more...

Stephen Machin

1 July 2018

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
Fourth Industrial Revolution inquiry

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Guy Michaels

1 June 2018

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
Economic Crime inquiry

Read more...

Tom Kirchmaier

1 May 2018

CEP industrial strategy paper
Investing in People: The Case for Human Capital Tax Credits

It is now widely recognised that human capital accumulation and research and development (R&D) are key drivers of economic growth, as is documented in most standard textbooks (e.g. Acemoglu, 2007; Romer, 1996). Estimates...Read more...

Rui Costa, Nikhil Datta, Stephen Machin and Sandra McNally

28 March 2018

CVER Briefing Note
Investing in People: The Case for Human Capital Tax Credits

Read more...

Rui Costa, Nikhil Datta, Stephen Machin and Sandra McNally

13 March 2018

CVER Briefing Note
Further analysis of the earnings differentials associated with BTECs

We analyse whether there is an earnings differential associated with having a BTEC qualification as a young person’s highest qualification. Previous analyses of wage differentials using survey data on a sample of all wor...Read more...

Gavan Conlon, Sophie Hedges and Pietro Patrignani

23 February 2018

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
Immigration and Scotland inquiry

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Alan Manning

1 January 2018

CVER Briefing Note
Effectiveness of CEOs in the public sector: evidence from further education institutions

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Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela, Camille Terrier and Clémentine Van Effenterre

19 December 2017

CEP Brexit analysis
The Brexit vote, inflation and UK living standards

The vote to leave the European Union (EU) was an unanticipated shock to the UK economy that increased uncertainty and reduced the country’s expected future openness to trade, investment and immigration with the EU. Our r...Read more...

Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain, Dennis Novy and Thomas Sampson

20 November 2017

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
CVER Submission to Economic Affairs Committee - Economics of higher, further and technical education inquiry

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Sandra McNally

1 October 2017

CEP report
Brexit and the future of globalisation?

Alongside the victory of Donald Trump in the 2016 US elections, Britain’s vote to leave the European Union (“Brexit”) in June 2016 reflects a global upsurge in populism. I find that under all plausible scenarios Brexit ...Read more...

John Van Reenen

27 September 2017

CVER Briefing Note
An analysis of the duration and achievement of apprenticeships in England

For the cohort of all 516,880 intermediate and advanced apprenticeships starting in England in 2011/12, we find that one third were withdrawn and a further 10 per cent were not completed within 36 months. We find that c...Read more...

Matthew Bursnall, Vahé Nafilyan and Stefan Speckesser

25 September 2017

CEP report
Industry in Britain - an atlas

Living near a productive company can have considerable economic benefits. It means the chance of well-paid jobs, creates opportunities for suppliers of goods and services, and can be a boost to local retailers. This comm...Read more...

Sandra Bernick, Richard Davies and Anna Valero

22 September 2017

CEP Brexit analysis
The local economic effects of Brexit

This paper studies the local impacts of the increases in trade barriers associated with Brexit. Predictions of the local impact of Brexit are presented under two different scenarios, soft and hard Brexit. Average effects...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin and Henry G. Overman

26 July 2017

CEP election analysis
#GE2017Economists: The Research Evidence on Key Issues for Voters in the 2017 UK General Election

The unexpected UK general election of 2017 was intended to be all about Brexit, one that will give the incoming government a mandate to negotiate the terms of the UK’s exit from the European Union (EU). But many other pu...Read more...

Stephen Machin and Romesh Vaitilingam

7 June 2017

CEP election analysis
Brexit as Climate Policy: The Agenda on Energy and the Environment

The Great Recession and a sluggish economic recovery were instrumental in meeting the legally binding climate change targets that the UK has set for itself. But without more drastic policy interventions, it is unlikely t...Read more...

Ralf Martin

5 June 2017

CEP election analysis
The UK's Regional Divide: Can Policy Make a Difference

There are large variations in economic performance across the cities and regions of the UK. There is a broad North-South pattern to these disparities. But there is also substantial variation within those broad areas: som...Read more...

Henry G. Overman

2 June 2017

CEP election analysis
Education and Skills: The UK Policy Agenda

The UK’s overall school budget has been protected in real terms but does not provide for funding per pupil to increase in line with inflation. Because pupil numbers are increasing, large falls in expenditure per pupil ar...Read more...

Sandra McNally and Gill Wyness

1 June 2017

CEP election analysis
Brexit and the UK Economy

This general election is pitched as the ‘Brexit Election’, one that will give the incoming government a mandate to negotiate the terms of the UK’s exit from the European Union (EU). The Conservatives and Labour have both...Read more...

Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson

31 May 2017

CEP election analysis
Immigration and the UK Economy

Immigration to the UK has grown a lot over the last 20 years and a significant fraction of this growth has been from other EU countries, especially after 2004 and the accession of the eight East European countries (‘A8’)...Read more...

Jonathan Wadsworth

30 May 2017

CEP election analysis
The UK's New Industrial Strategy

‘Industrial strategy’ has returned to the policy agenda, with the government recently setting out its plans in a Green Paper, and dedicated sections appearing in the election manifestos of all three main parties. Until r...Read more...

Anna Valero

26 May 2017

CEP election analysis
The NHS and Social Care: Prospects for Funding, Staffing and Performance into the 2020s

Health featured prominently in the 2016 referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union (EU), with the Leave campaign’s claim that Brexit would mean that £350 million extra money per week could be transferred fro...Read more...

Alistair McGuire

25 May 2017

CEP election analysis
Real Wages and Living Standards in the UK

Since the global financial crisis of 2007/08, workers’ real wages and family living standards in the UK have suffered to an extent unprecedented in modern history. Real wages of the typical (median) worker have fallen by...Read more...

Rui Costa and Stephen Machin

19 May 2017

CEP real wages update
The Return of Falling Real Wages

The falling real wages experienced by most UK workers between 2008 and 2014 were followed by modest growth in 2015 and 2016. But it has now reversed back as real wages have once again started to fall. This is courtesy of...Read more...

David Blanchflower, Rui Costa and Stephen Machin

12 May 2017

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
CVER Response to BEIS Green Paper - Building our Industrial Strategy

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Lucia Barbone, Steven McIntosh, Sandra McNally and Stefan Speckesser

1 April 2017

CVER Briefing Note
The incidence of publicly funded training in England

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Gavan Conlon, Sophie Hedges, Daniel Herr and Pietro Patrignani

30 March 2017

CVER Briefing Note
The Decision to Undertake an Apprenticeship: A Case Study

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Steven McIntosh

28 March 2017

CVER Briefing Note
Further Education in England: Learners and Institutions

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Claudia Hupkau and Guglielmo Ventura

21 February 2017

CEP report
UK growth: a new chapter

The UK Economy is at a critical juncture. Leaving the EU creates economic challenges that necessitate widespread policy change. But this also generates an opportunity to tackle some of the long-standing challenges which ...Read more...

Philippe Aghion, Terra Allas, Timothy Besley, John Browne, Francesco Caselli, Richard Davies, Richard Lambert, Rachel Lomax, Stephen Machin, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, Christopher A. Pissarides, Isabelle Roland, Xavier Rolet, Nicholas Stern and Anna Valero

2 February 2017

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
CEP Response to BEIS Green Paper - Building our Industrial Strategy

Read more...

Richard Davies, Ralf Martin and Anna Valero

1 January 2017

CEP Brexit analysis
Four principles for the UK's Brexit trade negotiations

The UK has yet to decide what post-Brexit trade deals it wants with other countries. To achieve the objectives it ends up choosing, the UK should develop a negotiating strategy based on four principles outlined in this p...Read more...

Thomas Sampson

26 October 2016

CEP Brexit analysis
BREXIT 2016: policy analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

On June 23rd, the British people will vote in a referendum over whether or not to remain in the European Union. It is the most important vote that most of us will have in our lifetimes. And one that will have major reper...Read more...

Holger Breinlich, Swati Dhingra, Saul Estrin, Hanwei Huang, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth

21 June 2016

CEP Brexit analysis
Who bears the pain? How the costs of Brexit would be distributed across income groups

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Holger Breinlich, Swati Dhingra, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen

2 June 2016

CEP Brexit analysis
‘ECONOMISTS FOR BREXIT’: A critique

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Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen

27 May 2016

CEP Brexit analysis
Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK

A reduction in immigration from the European Union (EU) following a vote for Brexit would not lead to any improvement in living standards for those born in the UK. Cuts in EU immigration would not offset the big fall in ...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, John Van Reenen and Jonathan Wadsworth

11 May 2016

CEP Brexit analysis
The UK Treasury analysis of 'The long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives': CEP Commentary

Overly cautious assumptions in the Treasury’s recent report on the long-run consequences for the UK economy of leaving the European Union (EU) mean that it has probably underestimated the economic costs. That is one of t...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen

21 April 2016

CEP Brexit analysis
The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK

The third in a series of Brexit reports from the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP), examines how leaving the EU would affect UK incomes through changes in foreign investment in the UK. Leaving the European Union (EU)...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen

15 April 2016

CEP Brexit analysis
The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

The economic consequences of leaving the EU will depend on what policies the UK adopts following Brexit. But lower trade due to reduced integration with EU countries is likely to cost the UK economy far more than is gain...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen

18 March 2016

CEP report
Why Governments Won't Invest

The UK Government is currently exerting a sharp and tightening squeeze on public investment at a time when borrowing for public investment has never, historically, been cheaper with interest rates close to zero in real t...Read more...

Sir Vince Cable

17 March 2016

CEP real wages update
The Current 2% UK Wage Growth Norm

Read more...

David Blanchflower and Stephen Machin

4 March 2016

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
Response to the Sub-Committee on Education, Skills and the Economy for the Apprenticeships Inquiry

Read more...

K Hadjivassilou, Claudia Hupkau, Steven McIntosh, Sandra McNally, Stefan Speckesser and Guglielmo Ventura

1 March 2016

CEP Brexit analysis
Life after Brexit : what are the UK’s options outside the European Union?

Suppose the UK votes to leave the European Union (EU): what happens next? This report outlines some of the options for the UK outside the EU and discusses the costs and benefits of each alternative....Read more...

Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson

12 February 2016

CEP real wages update
Slowing UK Wage Growth

We have previously examined the path of nominal and real wages in the UK (Blanchflower and Machin, 2014a, 2014b, 2014c). In that work, we expressed the view that in recent years there has been sufficient slack in the lab...Read more...

David Blanchflower and Stephen Machin

1 February 2016

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Policy Paper
Powerhouse of Cards? Understanding the 'Northern Powerhouse'

The ‘Northern Powerhouse’ is the UK government’s latest attempt to reduce regional disparities. By bringing together the cluster of cities in the North of England, the aim is to create an agglomeration with the scale to ...Read more...

Neil Lee

22 January 2016

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
Response to the Sub-Committee on Education, Skills and the Economy for the Careers Advice Inquiry

Read more...

Sandra McNally

1 January 2016

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
Autumn Statement 2015

Read more...

John Van Reenen

26 November 2015

CEP real wages update
UK real wages: a long way to go

Prospects for a boost in the real wages of UK workers remain bleak, despite some commentators still continuing to paint a more optimistic picture. This report, the latest in a new series of CEP Real Wages Updates, notes ...Read more...

David Blanchflower and Stephen Machin

7 October 2015

CEP real wages update
Real wages continue to fall in the UK

Real wages continue to fall - in the UK and elsewhere - yet despite this striking feature of the labour market, some commentators anticipate resurgent pay growth in the near future. This report, the first in a new series...Read more...

David Blanchflower and Stephen Machin

7 October 2015

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
Response to the House of Lords Select Committee on Social Mobility - Call for Evidence on "Transitions from School to Work"

Read more...

Claudia Hupkau, Sandra McNally, Stefan Speckesser and Hilary Steedman

14 September 2015

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
BIS - Productivity Plan inquiry

Read more...

Anna Valero and John Van Reenen

10 September 2015

CEP election analysis
A New Priority for Mental Health

Mental illness (especially depression and chronic anxiety) is the biggest single cause of misery in advanced countries. But only one quarter of those who are ill receive treatment. Mental health is crucial for wellbeing ...Read more...

Richard Layard

1 May 2015

CEP election analysis
#ElectionEconomics: The Research Evidence on Key Issues for Voters in the 2015 UK General Election

Please see the CEP #ElectionEconomics report(Paper 1)and the Executive Summary (Paper 2) that cover all the election 2015 briefings, discussing the research evidence on 15 of the UK's key policy battlegrounds: immigratio...Read more...

Ghazala Azmat, Brian Bell, Jonathan Colmer, Antoine Dechezleprêtre, Swati Dhingra, Christian A. L. Hilber, Stephen Machin, Alan Manning, Ralf Martin, Alistair McGuire, Sandra McNally, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, Henry G. Overman, Isabelle Roland, Thomas Sampson, Anna Valero, John Van Reenen, Jonathan Wadsworth, Gill Wyness and Gabriel Zucman

30 April 2015

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Policy Paper
Planes, Trains and Automobiles: The Economic Impact of Transport Infrastructure

In the run up to the 2015 general election, the main political parties have very mixed views as to what should be done about transport in the UK. Big transport investment proposals - expansion of London's airports and hi...Read more...

Stephen Gibbons

Revised July 2017

CEP election analysis
UK Housing and Planning Policies: the evidence from economic research

Housing affordability is a key concern of an ever-larger fraction of UK voters who are crammed into artificially limited space. At the same time, a lot of wealth lies in housing assets and there are many vested interests...Read more...

Christian A. L. Hilber

24 April 2015

CEP election analysis
Energy and the Environment: a cold climate for climate change policies?

The UK's main political parties have all pledged to combat climate change whatever the result of the general election. Yet according to a new report from the CEP, much of the discussion is largely rhetoric, with limited ...Read more...

Jonathan Colmer, Antoine Dechezleprêtre and Ralf Martin

23 April 2015

CEP election analysis
Fighting Crime: Can the Police do more with less?

The coalition government's austerity programme has resulted in some sizeable reductions in the police workforce, yet crime has continued to fall. A key question for the next Parliament is whether further real-terms reduc...Read more...

Brian Bell

21 April 2015

CEP election analysis
Inequality: Are we really 'all in this together'?

The UK's top 1% have between 12.5% and 15.5% of all income. This is mid-way between the United States (20%) and Continental Europe (8%). This share has been rising steadily since the late 1970s, mainly due to labour inco...Read more...

Gabriel Zucman

16 April 2015

CEP election analysis
Top Rate of Income Tax

The main political parties disagree about the appropriate rate of income Tax on the highest incomes. This note lays out the economic principles surrounding the top rate of income tax and considers the evidence that high ...Read more...

Alan Manning

16 April 2015

CEP election analysis
Health: How Will the NHS Fare in a Cold Climate?

With the NHS a central issue of the 2015 general election, the parties are debating funding, the form of provision, quality and productivity. This paper looks at the NHS record under the coalition government and consider...Read more...

Alistair McGuire and John Van Reenen

10 April 2015

CEP election analysis
Gender Gaps in the UK Labour Market: jobs, pay and family-friendly policies

Differences in the labour market experiences of men and women have fallen over the last 20 years, but there are still sizeable ‘gender gaps’ in employment and wages. Certain factors help to explain a good part of gender ...Read more...

Ghazala Azmat

1 April 2015

CEP election analysis
Paying for Higher Education

The UK Higher Education sector has changed radically as a result of Coalition Policies – most obviously through the dramatic increase in the tuition fee cap from £3,375 to £9,000 per year. However, the greatest issue ari...Read more...

Gill Wyness

27 March 2015

CEP election analysis
The Economic Performance of UK Cities: Can Urban and Regional Policy Make a Difference to the North-South Divide

There are large variations in economic performance across UK cities and on some measures, they have widened since the global financial crisis. All main parties promise action to reduce them, but there is little differenc...Read more...

Henry G. Overman

26 March 2015

CEP election analysis
Real Wages and Living Standards

Real wages and living standards have taken a hard hit in the UK in the recent past. Real wages of the typical (median) UK worker have fallen by almost 10% since 2008 and median family incomes have significantly fallen fo...Read more...

Stephen Machin

25 March 2015

CEP election analysis
Schools: The Evidence on Academies, Resources and Pupil Performance

England’s performance in international tests of student achievement continues to be disappointing. Further improvement is essential not only for students’ themselves but also for economic growth. This briefing considers ...Read more...

Sandra McNally

24 March 2015

CEP election analysis
Should We Stay or Should We Go? The economic consequences of leaving the EU

We analyze the effects of Brexit on the UK economy. The most important economic consequence of Brexit would likely be reduced trade with EU countries. We consider an optimistic scenario with relatively small increases in...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano and Thomas Sampson

23 March 2015

CEP election analysis
Productivity and Business Policies

UK productivity stagnated after the Great Recession of 2008-09 and remains about 15 percent below historical trends. This 'productivity puzzle' is due to a mixture of cyclical and structural effects - the fall is not ent...Read more...

Isabelle Roland and Anna Valero

18 March 2015

CEP election analysis
Austerity: Growth Costs and Post-Election Plans

The austerity programme of the coalition government knocked at least one percent per year off growth in the first two years of this Parliament. In retrospect, this looks like a mistake and the slower pace of austerity in...Read more...

John Van Reenen

11 March 2015

CEP election analysis
Immigration and the UK Labour Market

During periods of strong economic growth, migration is and has always been important for filling gaps in the labour market. Perceptions do not seem to line up with the existing academic evidence. On balance, the evidence...Read more...

Jonathan Wadsworth

26 February 2015

CEP policy analysis
The impact of 'clean innovation' on economic growth: evidence from the transport and energy industries'

Policies on climate change that encourage 'clean innovation' while displacing 'dirty innovation' could have a positive impact on short-term economic growth while avoiding the potentially disastrous reduction in GDP that ...Read more...

Ralf Martin

4 November 2014

CEP election analysis
The Scottish Referendum: Breaking Up is Hard – and expensive - to Do

The Scottish Referendum: CEP Director John Van Reenen on why with a 'YES' vote, the Scottish people will be poorer. A lot poorer...Read more...

John Van Reenen

15 September 2014

CEP policy analysis
Brexit or Fixit? The Trade and Welfare Effects of Leaving the European Union

Since a speech by the Prime Minister in January 2013 , the Conservative party has been committed to holding a referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union (EU) in 2017. So this is a good moment to consider wha...Read more...

Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, Joao Paulo Pessoa, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen

16 May 2014

CEP policy analysis
Immigration, the European Union and the UK Labour Market

During periods of strong economic growth, migration is and has always been important for filling gaps in the labour market. On balance, the evidence for the UK labour market suggests that fears about adverse consequences...Read more...

Jonathan Wadsworth

15 May 2014

CEP report
Internationalization and Innovation of Firms: Evidence and Policy

We use a representative and cross-country comparable sample of manufacturing firms (EFIGE) to document patterns of interaction among firm-level internationalization, innovation and productivity across seven European coun...Read more...

Carlo Altomonte, Tommaso Aquilante, Gábor Békés and Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano

11 April 2014

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Policy Paper
Evaluating Spatial Policies

In most countries economic prosperity is very unevenly distributed across space: regions, cities and neighbourhoods seem to be very unequal, whether we look at average earnings, employment, education or almost any other ...Read more...

Stephen Gibbons, Max Nathan and Henry G. Overman

19 March 2014

CEP election analysis
Immigration: The Evidence from Economic Research

Read more...

Jonathan Wadsworth

27 June 2013

CEP election analysis
Life Opportunities: The Evidence on the UK’s Declining Social Mobility

Read more...

Jo Blanden

27 June 2013

CEP election analysis
Macroeconomic Assessment: Interest Rates, Taxes and Spending

Read more...

Christopher Crowe

27 June 2013

CEP election analysis
Reducing Crime: More Police, More Prisons or More Pay?

Read more...

Olivier Marie

27 June 2013

CEP election analysis
Health Care: Evidence on the Impact of Increased Spending and Patient Choice

Read more...

Alistair McGuire and John Van Reenen

27 June 2013

CEP election analysis
Welfare to Work: The Evidence on Labour’s New Deal Policies

Read more...

John Van Reenen

27 June 2013

CEP report
The UK productivity and jobs puzzle: does the answer lie in labour market flexibility?

GDP per worker fell for the five years after 2008 which is unprecedented in post war UK history. In this paper we argue that “capital shallowing” (i.e. the fall in the capital-labour ratio) could be the main reason for t...Read more...

Joao Paulo Pessoa and John Van Reenen

5 June 2013

CEP report
Education in a Devolved Scotland: A Quantitative Analysis

Education is an area that is highly devolved in the UK, and the fact that all four constituent countries have pursued very different policies in the recent past provides a good testing ground to undertake a comparative r...Read more...

Stephen Machin, Sandra McNally and Gill Wyness

21 May 2013

CEP report
School Structure, School Autonomy and the Tail

In this paper, we survey the UK-based literature on school structures and school autonomy to identify settings in which alternative and more autonomous school arrangements can improve the educational attainments of pupil...Read more...

Stephen Machin and Olmo Silva

13 March 2013

CEP report
Investing for Prosperity: Skills, Infrastructure and Innovation

What institutions and policies are needed to sustain UK economic growth in the dynamic world economy of the twentyfirst century? After years of inadequate investment in skills, infrastructure and innovation, there are lo...Read more...

Philippe Aghion, Timothy Besley, John Browne, Francesco Caselli, Richard Lambert, Rachel Lomax, Christopher A. Pissarides, Nicholas Stern and John Van Reenen

31 January 2013

CEP US election analysis
Inequality and opportunity: the return of a neglected debate

During this election period many Americans are feeling angry towards the very rich, especially those working in the financial sector, who helped cause the Great Recession and yet were bailed out by the government. Increa...Read more...

Stephen Machin and John Van Reenen

29 October 2012

CEP US election analysis
Healthcare Reform: The US Policy Debate

The ability of the next US president to rein in spending on healthcare and improve the productivity of the healthcare system is largely going to determine the country’s fiscal future. That is one of the conclusions of th...Read more...

Zack Cooper

24 October 2012

CEP US election analysis
Economic Recovery and Policy Uncertainty

Until some political mechanism creates incentives to elect moderate representatives who can reach across the ideological divide, the US seems destined to heightened levels of policy uncertainty for many years to come. So...Read more...

Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis and John Van Reenen

23 October 2012

CEP US election analysis
Recession and Recovery: The US Policy Debate on Taxes, Spending and Public Debt

The US economy is still suffering from its most severe recession in seven decades. In the first of a series of US Election Analyses, Ethan Ilzetzki covers the key issue of taxes, spending and public debt, a major point o...Read more...

Ethan Ilzetzki and Jonathan Pinder

16 October 2012

CEP report
Fiscal consolidation during a depression

In 2009-10, the UK's budget deficit was about 11 per cent of GDP. A credible plan for fiscal consolidation was introduced in the UK over the fiscal years 2011-12 to 2016-17. In this paper, we assess the impact of the sca...Read more...

Nitika Bagaria, Dawn Holland and John Van Reenen

3 August 2012

CEP policy analysis
Immigration and the UK Labour Market: The latest evidence from economic research

During periods of strong economic growth, migration is and has always been important for filling gaps in the labour market. On balance, the evidence for the UK labour market suggests that fears about the consequences of ...Read more...

Jonathan Wadsworth

25 June 2012

CEP report
How mental illness loses out in the NHS a report by the Centre for Economic Performance's Mental Health Policy Group

Mental illness accounts for a massive share of the total burden of disease. Even when we include the burden of premature death mental illness accounts for 23% of the total burden of disease. Yet, despite the existence of...Read more...

Richard Layard

18 June 2012

CEP report
The political economy of the Greek debt crisis: a tale of two bailouts

We review the events that led to the May 2010 and July 2011 bailout agreements. We interpret the bailouts as outcomes of political-economy equilibria. We argue that the second bailout was not on the Pareto frontier and s...Read more...

Silvia Ardagna and Francesco Caselli

20 March 2012

CEP policy analysis
Apprenticeship Policy in England: Increasing Skills versus Boosting Young People's Job Prospects

Successive British governments have committed substantial public resources to apprentice training, but far too few young people benefit and not enough high value skills have been developed. That is the central conclusion...Read more...

Hilary Steedman

14 December 2011

CEP report
UK economic performance since 1997: growth, productivity and jobs

A common view is that the performance of the UK economy between 1997 and 2010 under Labour was very weak and that the current economic problems are a consequence of poor policies in this period. In this report, we analys...Read more...

Dan Corry, Anna Valero and John Van Reenen

6 December 2011

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
BIS - Executive Remuneration Discussion Paper

Read more...

Brian Bell and John Van Reenen

17 November 2011

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Policy Paper
Assessing the Government's Proposals to Reform the UK Planning System

This note discusses the UK government’s proposed reforms to the land use planning system. It considers the case for reform and the extent to which the reforms are likely to meet their objectives. It then makes some sugge...Read more...

Max Nathan and Henry G. Overman

2 November 2011

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Policy Paper
What We Know (and Don't Know) About the Links between Planning and Economic Performance

This note considers the impact of land use planning on economic performance. Specifically, we discuss some of the economic and social costs of the current English system, some of which have been underplayed in public deb...Read more...

Max Nathan and Henry G. Overman

2 November 2011

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Policy Paper
The Future of Rural Policy: Lessons from Spatial Economics (Policy Note)

This policy note spells out lessons for rural policy that emerge from recent SERC research. It summarises a SERC policy paper available at http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/textonly/SERC/publications/download/sercpp008.p...Read more...

Stephen Gibbons and Henry G. Overman

11 October 2011

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Policy Paper
The Future of Rural Policy: Lessons from Spatial Economics

This policy paper is concerned with rural policy. It spells out the lessons for rural policy that emerge from recent SERC research....Read more...

Stephen Gibbons and Henry G. Overman

11 October 2011

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Policy Paper
Economic Growth in Cities: Issues for Central Government

This note is concerned with the role of cities and urban policy in growth. Decentralisation from central to local government may help city leaders raise economic performance. It also generates new policy choices for cent...Read more...

Henry G. Overman

June 2011

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
ONS - ONS Virtual Microdata Laboratory: Strategic Recommendations 2011-2015

Read more...

Tanvi Desai

1 March 2011

CEP report
Measuring subjective wellbeing for public policy: recommendations on measures

The measurement of wellbeing is central to public policy. There are three uses for any measure: 1) monitoring progress; 2) informing policy design; and 3) policy appraisal. There has been increasing interest in the UK an...Read more...

Paul Dolan, Richard Layard and Robert Metcalfe

March 2011

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Policy Paper
Strategies for Underperforming Places

All governments are concerned with tackling the problems of areas that experience sustained decline and underperformance. In the UK, several factors have combined to raise profound questions about future government polic...Read more...

Paul Lawless, Henry G. Overman and Peter Tyler

February 2011

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
BIS - Trade White Paper: Call for Evidence

Read more...

Emanuel Ornelas

1 November 2010

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
Department for Work and Pensions - 21st Century Welfare

Read more...

John Van Reenen

29 September 2010

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
BIS - Financing the Private Sector Recovery

Read more...

John Van Reenen

6 September 2010

CEP report
The State of Apprenticeship in 2010: International Comparisons - Australia, Austria, England, France, Germany, Ireland, Sweden, Switzerland. A Report for the Apprenticeship Ambassadors Network.

Forward by Sir Roy Gardner (Chairman, Compass Group plc; Chairman, Apprenticeship Ambassadors Network) August 2010: I am pleased to commend this report, commissioned by the Apprenticeship Ambassadors Network, of which I ...Read more...

Hilary Steedman

September 2010

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation
National Science Foundation (NSF/SBE) - Future Research in the Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences

Read more...

John Van Reenen

1 September 2010

CEP policy analysis
Reducing Crime: More Police, More Prisons or More Pay?

Just over 4.3 million crimes were recorded by the police forces of England and Wales in 2009/10, of which 71% were property crimes and 23% were violent crimes. The British Crime Survey, which asks consistent questions ov...Read more...

Olivier Marie

July 2010

CEP policy analysis
A Note on Academy School Policy

The Academies programme set up under the Labour government, beginning in 2002, has so far given Academy status to 203 English secondary schools. These schools were more significantly disadvantaged in terms of pre-Academy...Read more...

Stephen Machin and James Vernoit

July 2010

CEP policy analysis
Still time to reclaim the European Union Emissions Trading System for the European tax payer

The criteria proposed by the EU Commission to identify industries that will receive free emission permits in the third phase of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) are not restrictive enough. Evidence fr...Read more...

Ralf Martin, Mirabelle Muûls and Ulrich J. Wagner

May 2010

CEP election analysis
CEP Election Analysis 2010 - The complete Series, discussing research on some of the key policy battlegrounds of the 2010 General Election

Read more...

April 2010

CEP election analysis
Climate Change: Consensus on the Long-Run Targets - But Will We Get Policies that Deliver?

Read more...

Ralf Martin

April 2010

CEP election analysis
Inequality: Still Higher, But Labour's Policies Kept it Down

Read more...

Stephen Machin and John Van Reenen

April 2010

CEP election analysis
Urban Renewal and Regional Growth: Muddled Objectives and Mixed Progress

Read more...

Henry G. Overman

April 2010

CEP election analysis
Macroeconomics and Public Finances: The worst is yet to come

Read more...

Tom Cunningham and Ethan Ilzetzki

April 2010

CEP election analysis
Jobs and Youth Unemployment: It's bad, but not as bad as you might think

Read more...

Barbara Petrongolo and John Van Reenen

Revised November 2011

CEP election analysis
Financial Regulation: Can We Avoid Another Great Recession?

Read more...

Luis Garicano

April 2010

CEP report
Bankers' Pay and Extreme Wage Inequality in the UK

It is well known that the distribution of income in the United Kingdom has widened considerably in the last three decades. This rise has been a result of a widening at both the top and bottom of the wage distribution. Mo...Read more...

Brian Bell and John Van Reenen

April 2010

CEP election analysis
Bankers' Bonuses

Read more...

Brian Bell

April 2010

CEP election analysis
Health: Higher Spending has Improved Quality, But Productivity Must Increase

Read more...

Zack Cooper and Alistair McGuire

April 2010

CEP election analysis
Evaluating Education Policies: The Evidence from Economic Research

Read more...

Sandra McNally

April 2010

CEP election analysis
Reducing Crime: More Police, More Prisons or More Pay?

Read more...

Olivier Marie

April 2010

CEP election analysis
Immigration and the UK Labour Market: The Evidence from Economic Research

Read more...

Jonathan Wadsworth

April 2010

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Policy Paper
City-Region Governance, Policy Variation and Economic Performance

Advocates for devolution of responsibility for economic development have frequently made a link between the governance of city-regions and their economic performance. The evidence they adduce for this does not clearly be...Read more...

Paul Steeples

February 2010

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Policy Paper
Urban Containment, Housing Affordability and Price Stability - Irreconcilable Goals

The planning goals of urban containment and now densification conceive of houses in terms of physical units and of land ‘supply’ as the area allocated for housing by the planning system; estimates of ‘demand’ are driven ...Read more...

Paul Cheshire

September 2009

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Policy Paper
Local Authorities and the Downturn: A Review of Issues, Experience and Options

This report considers the potential/appropriate role for local authorities (LAs) in relation to the downturn phase of the current recession. It focuses on the most valuable functions which they can fulfil in this context...Read more...

Ian Gordon, Tony Travers and Christine Whitehead

June 2009

CEP policy analysis
The National Minimum Wage: The Evidence of its Impact on Jobs and Inequality

• The National Minimum Wage is one of the most significant labour market interventions that the Labour government has made, raising the pay of well over one million low paid workers by about 15% overnight at the point of...Read more...

September 2008

CEP policy analysis
The Doha Round: Freer and Fairer Trade?

• Given the limited ambition that has been set for the Doha Round since the setback at Cancún in 2003, optimistic estimates of the likely gains from a successful agreement on world trade are around $182 billion, of which...Read more...

July 2008

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Policy Paper
Policies for 'Mixed Communities': A Critical Evaluation

Read more...

Paul Cheshire, Stephen Gibbons and Ian Gordon

June 2008

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Policy Paper
Resurgent Cities and Regional Economic Performance

Read more...

Henry G. Overman and Patricia Rice

June 2008

CEP report
Interoperability and Market Foreclosure In the European Microsoft Case

In this paper we discuss some of the most important economic issues raised in European Commission vs. Microsoft (2004) concerning the market for work group servers. In our view, the most important economic issues relate ...Read more...

Kai Uwe Kühn and John Van Reenen

February 2008

CEP report
Capacity Constraints and Irreversible Investments: Defending Against Collective Dominance in UPM Kymmene/Norske Skog/Haindl

Scrutiny of potential mergers by the European Commission often focuses on unilateral effects or single firm dominance. But some cases have involved concerns over coordinated effects: the concern that the merger could inc...Read more...

Kai Uwe Kühn and John Van Reenen

February 2008

CEP policy analysis
UK Productivity During The Blair Era

• Productivity is a key indicator of economic health and increasing productivity has been a key objective of the Labour government since 1997. UK labour productivity (GDP per hour) has traditionally been lower than other...Read more...

June 2007

CEP report
Changes in Wage Inequality

We examine trends in wage inequality in the US and other countries over the past four decades. We show that there has been a secular increase in the 90-50 wage differential in the US and the UK since the late 1970s. By c...Read more...

Stephen Machin and John Van Reenen

April 2007

CEP policy analysis
Boosting Innovation and Productivity Growth in Europe: The hope and the realities of the EU's 'Lisbon agenda'

• The United States has significantly higher productivity than the European average. US GDP per hour is over 15% higher than Europe’s; and US GDP per capita is over 30% higher. • From the end of the Second World War unti...Read more...

October 2006

CEP report
The Depression Report: A New Deal for Depression and Anxiety Disorders

Read more...

Richard Layard & CEP Mental Health Policy Group

June 2006

CEP policy analysis
Incapacity Benefit Reform: Tackling the Rise in Labour Market Inactivity

• There are 2.7 million people of working age in the UK who are claiming Incapacity Benefit, Severe Disability Allowance or Income Support on the grounds of incapacity. Total spending on benefits for disabled people was ...Read more...

March 2006

CEP policy analysis
Inherited Family Firms and Management Practices: The Case for Modernising the UK's Inheritance Tax

• What role does hereditary family management play in the long-standing poor managerial performance of UK firms? We address this question using a new survey of the management practices of over 730 medium-sized manufactur...Read more...

March 2006

CEP policy analysis
Climate Change: Economic Sense and Non-sense of Carbon Mitigation Policies

• It is predicted that climate change caused by human activities will raise global average temperatures by between 1.5 and 5 degrees Celsius over the next 100 years. This could raise sea levels by one metre or more and l...Read more...

February 2006

CEP report
Work-Life Balance, Management Practices and Productivity

Do “Anglo-Saxon” management practices generate higher productivity only at the expense of lousy work-life balance (WLB) for workers? Many critics of “neo-libéralisme sauvage” have argued that increased competition from g...Read more...

Nicholas Bloom, Tobias Kretschmer and John Van Reenen

January 2006

CEP policy analysis
Fighting over Peanuts? The European Union Budget

• Top of the agenda at the European Union (EU) summit on 15/16 December 2005 is the budget for 2007-13. The original proposal from the European Commission was for a budget of one trillion euros or 1.21% of EU gross natio...Read more...

December 2005

CEP report
Management Practices Across Firms and Nations

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Nicholas Bloom, Stephen Dorgan, John Dowdy, Tom Rippin and John Van Reenen

June 2005

CEP report
Pathway From Poverty? Intellectual Property And Developing Countries

This new report, published in association with the IPI is the first wide-ranging analysis of the economic studies done on intellectual property laws. It concludes that there are some benefits from intellectual property p...Read more...

Louise C. Keely

April 2000

CEP report
World Financial Reform

In July 1999, the CEP held a second meeting of policymakers and thinkers to examine in greater detail aspects of the international financial architecture and proposals for its reform. This Special Report includes revised...Read more...

Olivier Davanne, Andrew Haldane, Graham Ingham, Peter B. Kenen and Ken Rogoff

December 1999

CEP report
International Financial Reform

In the wake of the Asian and Russian financial crises, the CEP convened a one day meeting of policymakers and academics to examine the prospects for reform of the international monetary system in December 1998. This Spec...Read more...

Stanley Fischer

December 1998

CEP report
Apprenticeship: A Strategy For Growth

Referring to issues raised by recent reforms and future expansion of apprenticeship, this report reveals the consequences serious skills shortages have on the economy as a whole. It calls for radical improvements to the ...Read more...

Howard Gospel, Paul Ryan and Hilary Steedman

October 1998

CEP report
What A Performance: Performance Related Pay In The Public Services

A groundbreaking study of performance related pay schemes in the Inland Revenue, the Employment Service, NHS Trust Hospitals and Head Teachers.Performance related pay has played a central role in the reform of performanc...Read more...

Stephen French and David Marsden

July 1998

CEP report
Employability And Exclusion: What Governments Can Do

An edited version of a major one day conference hosted by the Centre for Economic Performance ahead of the Birmingham G8 Summit in May. Contributors include:Rt Hon. David Blunkett, Secretary of State for Education and Em...Read more...

Peter Robinson

May 1998

CEP report
Literacy, Numeracy And Economic Performance

Robinson raises a series of questions about the Government's priorities, challenging the key policies of target-setting and raising average achievement. (The Times). This report, which attracted much media coverage, exa...Read more...

Peter Robinson

September 1997

CEP report
Restructuring Or Restrukturierung? Corporate Restructuring In Britain And Germany

A report resulting from extensive study, undertaken in association with the Financial Times, on restructuring activities in the largest British and German companies since 1986....Read more...

Ansgar Richter

May 1997

CEP report
Into The 21st Century: An Assessment Of British Skill Profiles And Prospects

In spite of progress in improving skills levels over the past decade, Britain still lags far behind many of its main competitors in key areas. Andy Green and Hilary Steedman report on the results of work carried out at t...Read more...

Andy Green and Hilary Steedman

March 1997

CEP report
Assessment, Qualifications And Standards: UK Compared To France, Germany, Singapore And The US

This Annex contains the technical work which underpins Into the 21st Century. It describes in detail the assessment procedures and qualifications offered in France, Germany, Singapore and USA compared to the UK....Read more...

Olivier Bertrand, Andy Green, Ansgar Richter, Marcus Rubin, Hilary Steedman and Klaus Weber

March 1997

CEP report
Investment Prospects In Russia

Contributors to this report on a recent CEP conferene include Sir Rodric Braithwaite, Sergei Vasiliev, Michael Emerson and Peter Boone. There is too much ill-informed and erroneous reporting of Russia and its companies....Read more...

Richard Layard and George Lucas

February 1997

CEP report
Jobs, Wages And Poverty: Patterns Of Persistence And Mobility In The Flexible Labour Market

A new study underlining the extent to which poverty persists over time in Britain. It presents evidence, together for the first time, from longitudinal labour market data on jobs, poverty and pay....Read more...

Paul Gregg

January 1997

CEP report
Low Pay And Minimum Wages: The British Evidence

Sue Fernie and David Metcalf survey the economic evidence concerning the impact on pay, jobs and poverty of a minimum wage set at different levels. Minimum wages are probably the most controversial political and economic...Read more...

Sue Fernie and David Metcalf

September 1996

CEP report
Rhetoric And Reality: Britain's New Vocational Qualifications

Based on research commissioned by the Gatsby Foundation, this report examines the impact of the new systems of vocational qualifications and provoked a lively debate in the letters pages of the Financial Times....Read more...

Peter Robinson

January 1996