Brexit

Blog

Vox EU:

Changes to firms' service delivery post-Brexit

Services can be supplied through cross-border trade, consumption abroad, commercial presence, and the presence of a natural person. The choice of delivery mode and the extent to which service traders can switch between m...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of International Economics: Forthcoming

New dawn fades: Trade, labour and the Brexit exchange rate depreciation

This paper studies consequences of the large exchange rate depreciation occurring when the UK electorate unexpectedly voted to leave the European Union. Sterling plummeted, recording the biggest one-day depreciation of a...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Brexit and investment

In 2016, the UK voted to leave the European Union and growth in UK manufacturing investment ground to a halt. This paper uses administrative trade data to investigate the causal relationship between these events. We expl...Read more...

Blog

LSE Politics and Policy:

Stop performative Brexit and do what works for the British economy

Brexit has left its mark on UK international trade, although, so far, the effect has been smaller than economists expected. Dennis Novy, Thomas Sampson and Catherine Thomas review recent UK trade performance and argue th...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Brexit and UK trade

This briefing summarises the evidence about how leaving the European Union (EU) has affected UK trade. Overall, Brexit has had a negative effect on UK trade. But, so far, this effect has been smaller than economists expe...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Ending stagnation

What can be done to address Britain’s relative economic decline over the past decade and a half? The final report of the Economy 2030 Inquiry presents an ambitious strategy for reversing decades of under-investment, by t...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Global Britain has failed - what next?

The vision of post-Brexit Britain was one of international trade deals that would propel the country into a new era of prosperity. That vision of "Global Britain" is now dead. Thomas Sampson argues that the only viable a...Read more...

CEP Insights

Insights: condensed

The Insights series is an introduction to the work of the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP). Each Insight highlights the contribution of CEP researchers to both academic understanding and policymaking in one area of ...Read more...

External publication

The state of the UK economy 2024

The state of the UK economy is always an important matter, but it is all the more so in what looks likely to be an election year. This UK in a Changing Europe report takes stock of the UK economy in order to assess how i...Read more...

External publication

Ending stagnation

The UK has great strengths, but is a decade and a half into a period of stagnation. The toxic combination of slow growth and high inequality was straining the living standards of low- and middle-income Britain well befor...Read more...

External publication

Why are the latest net migration figures not a reliable guide to future trends?

This report examines how different types of immigration contribute to net migration in the long term, and what levels of net migration the UK might expect in coming years....Read more...

Journal article

Oxford Economic Papers:

Economic insecurity and political preferences

Economic insecurity has attracted growing attention, but there is no consensus as to its definition. We characterize a class of individual economic-insecurity measures based on the time profile of economic resources. We ...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

Brexit and consumer food prices: May 2023 update

Brexit continues to affect the UK economy. The results in this report are updates to the original study of Bakker et al. (2022), showing that higher non-tariff barriers due to Brexit are affecting food price inflation an...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

How has Brexit affected business investment in the UK?

Leaving the European Union has undoubtedly had effects on the UK economy. The most obvious ones will be on international trade. But Brexit might also have an impact on business investment, which is crucial for the econom...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

How women are changing the face of economics

Economics continues to be a discipline dominated by men. Yet trailblazing female economists are working to change that. Myung Jin explains why it is important to improve diversity and equality within the field....Read more...

CEP discussion paper

New dawn fades: trade, labour and the Brexit exchange rate depreciation

This paper studies consequences of the very large exchange rate depreciation occurring in June 2016 due to the UK electorate unexpectedly voting to leave the European Union. As news of a leave vote came in, the value of ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Non-tariff barriers and consumer prices: evidence from Brexit

Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs) are the main policy impediment to international trade, yet little is known about their pass-through to prices. This paper exploits the Brexit trade policy shock to quantify how NTBs affect cons...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Stagnation nation

Even before the cost of living crisis, a toxic combination of slow growth and high inequality was threatening UK living standards, particularly for families on low and middle incomes. The Economy 2030 Inquiry is examinin...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Britain, a services superpower sinking into stagnation

British households have low levels of financial resilience and are forecast a sluggish living standards recovery coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic. Currently, Britain is the result of an economy defined by the low grow...Read more...

Journal article

Annual Review of Economics:

Expecting Brexit

The Brexit vote precipitated the unraveling of the United Kingdom's membership in the world's deepest economic integration agreement. This article reviews evidence on the realized economic effects of Brexit. The 2016 Bre...Read more...

External publication

Stagnation nation: navigating a route to a fairer and more prosperous Britain

The UK has great strengths, but is over a decade into a period of stagnation. The toxic combination of slow growth and high inequality was posing challenges for low-to-middle income Britain's living standards even before...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Brexit will exacerbate long-term challenges facing the UK economy

Leaving the EU represents the largest change in the UK's relationship with the rest of the world in half a century. The impact won't be a one-off event. Structural changes will take place over the long term, as capital a...Read more...

External publication

The economics of Brexit: what have we learned?

This eBook, produced by VoxEU/CEPR and UK in a Changing Europe, brings together leading academic researchers on trade, immigration and political economy to assess what we have learned, 18 months on from its implementatio...Read more...

Chapter

The impact of Brexit on UK-EU trade

in The Economics of Brexit: What Have We Learned?

Read more...

Chapter

Post-Brexit imports, supply chains, and the effect on consumer prices

in The Economics of Brexit: What Have We Learned?

Read more...

Blog

VoxTalks Economics:

The economics of Brexit (podcast)

The latest CEPR ebook investigates the impact of Brexit so far on the economies of the UK and EU. Tim Phillips talks to three of the authors: Jonathan Portes, Thomas Sampson and Sarah Hall....Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

The economics of Brexit: a new eBook

What has Brexit meant for the UK economy? Six years on from the referendum, and over a year since the implementation of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement, this column introduces a new eBook which brings together ...Read more...

External publication

The big Brexit

Leaving the EU represents the largest change in the UK's relationship with the rest of the world in nearly half a century. It is a profound change in economic governance, that will reorient production and trade away from...Read more...

CentrePiece article

How Brexit has raised UK food prices

Some products imported to the UK from the European Union have been more affected by the post-Brexit trading rules than others. Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh De Lyon, Luisa Opitz and Dilan Yang find that leaving th...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Trade disruptions in the wake of Brexit

A dramatic fall in the value of UK imports from the European Union relative to the rest of the world occurred when the post-Brexit Trade and Cooperation Agreement came into effect. What's more, according to research by R...Read more...

Blog

Centre for European Reform:

Is Brexit to blame for Britain's economic woes? (podcast)

Thomas Sampson, of the London School of Economics, and John Springford, the CER's deputy director, discuss and compare their findings on how Brexit has affected UK goods trade and inflation, and John shares his latest re...Read more...

Blog

LSE Covid-19:

What we learnt about the Covid economy

In spring 2020, many countries imposed radical, urgent actions including lockdowns to protect their citizens' health - but there was also a need to protect people from the worst of the ensuing economic storm. Academics a...Read more...

External publication

Enduring strengths

A decade of stagnant living standards, weak productivity and low investment combined with a coming decade of major change - driven by Covid-19, Brexit and Net Zero - mean that it is crucial for the UK to renew its econom...Read more...

External publication

Post-Brexit imports, supply chains, and the effect on consumer prices

This report documents the decrease in imports and shows how the patterns of imports vary across sectors following the UK's departure from the Single Market and Customs Union at the end of 2020. The authors, Jan David Bak...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Brexit: the major trade disruption came after the UK-EU agreement took effect in 2021

The impact of Brexit on UK trade is a highly contested topic. Rebecca Freeman, Kalina Manova, Thomas Prayer, and Thomas Sampson summarise the findings of new research on how Brexit has affected the UK's goods trade with ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

UK trade in the wake of Brexit

This paper studies the impact of Brexit on the UK's trade with the EU relative to its trade with the rest of the world. We find no evidence that uncertainty and anticipation effects led to a significant decline in relati...Read more...

Blog

VoxEU:

Global supply chain risk and resilience

Supply disruptions caused by systemic shocks such as Brexit, Covid, and Russia-Ukraine tensions have catapulted the issue of risk in global supply chains to the top of policy agendas. In some sectors, however, there is a...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

How might Scottish independence affect the costs of international trade?

If Scotland were to become an independent country, there would be a new international border with the rest of the UK. Thomas Sampson considers how additional costs that are inevitably created by borders would affect trad...Read more...

Journal article

International Economic Review:

The Brexit vote, inflation and UK living standards

This article studies how voting for Brexit affected living standards in the United Kingdom. Using heterogeneity in exposure to import costs across product groups, we analyze how the depreciation of sterling caused by the...Read more...

Blog

UK in a Changing Europe:

Expecting Brexit

Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson examine how Brexit impacted UK trade and GDP before being implemented in 2021. Finding evidence that the UK's economy was around two to three per cent smaller at the end of 2019 than it w...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Expecting Brexit

The Brexit vote precipitated the unravelling of the UK's membership of the world's deepest economic integration agreement. This paper reviews evidence on the realized economic effects of Brexit. The 2016 Brexit referendu...Read more...

External publication

Changing jobs?

This report is about the nature and speed of change in the UK's labour market, about how past periods of rapid change have happened, and about workers' experiences as they have lived through these changes. It is written ...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Labour shortages have become widespread - this is how firms are responding

The majority of firms saw business grow between April and October 2021, after the shocks of Covid-19 and Brexit in 2020. But a new analysis by Swati Dhingra and Josh De Lyon into firms' experiences and expectations for t...Read more...

CEP Covid-19 analysis

Real-time updates on the UK economy: trends, expectations and implications from business survey data

Covid-19 has caused substantial shocks to the UK economy, highlighting a need for real-time data to analyse trends. We use monthly business survey data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) to document recent ...Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Monitoring and evaluating during the Covid-19 recovery

Helene Donnat summarises the discussion from the What Works Growth's fifth Economic Recovery workshop, exploring the challenges places are facing in undertaking good quality monitoring and evaluation....Read more...

Blog

LSE Politics and Policy:

The Net Zero Strategy provides a foundation which now needs to be cemented in investment, tax, and regulatory decisions

The UK government has delivered on its promise to publish a strategy for driving the country's economy towards net zero emissions by 2050. Esin Serin and Anna Valero write that the economy-wide Net Zero Strategy provides...Read more...

External publication

Trading places

This briefing note is the launch paper for the Brexit research theme of The Economy 2030 Inquiry, a joint project between the Resolution Foundation and the London School of Economics, funded by the Nuffield Foundation. I...Read more...

CEP Insights

Brexit

The UK's vote to leave the European Union in 2016 triggered economic reactions that will define the country's future for years to come. Why does leaving the EU have such a profound impact - and how do economists estimate...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Political Economy:

Are bigger banks better? Firm-level evidence from Germany

The effects of large banks on the real economy are theoretically ambiguous and politically controversial. I identify quasi-exogenous increases in bank size in postwar Germany. I show that firms did not grow faster after ...Read more...

Blog

LSE Covid-19:

The 2020s will be a crunch decade that will determine the UK's trajectory into the mid-21st century

As vaccines roll out and restrictions are lifted, public debate is turning to the economic recovery from Covid-19 and the deepest annual downturn for 300 years that came in its wake. But viewing the years ahead simply as...Read more...

Blog

VoxEU:

Why global uncertainty is declining

The latest update of the World Uncertainty Index indicates that global uncertainty has fallen back to its long-run average after reaching a historical high in 2020. This column describes how this is driven by a significa...Read more...

External publication

The UK's decisive decade: the launch report for The Economy 2030 Inquiry

This report marks the launch of The Economy 2030 Inquiry, a landmark collaboration between the Resolution Foundation and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, funded by the Nuffield Found...Read more...

Blog

UK in a Changing Europe:

Trade after Brexit: the initial numbers

Thomas Sampson argues that, although the full effects of Brexit won't be known for many years, regulatory divergence is likely to further reduce trade, as firms face the challenge of satisfying different regulations in t...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

What do new UK trade data reveal about the impact of lockdown and Brexit?

Thomas Sampson writes that lockdown probably contributed to the fall in UK exports and imports reported in the January 2021 trade data. But the bigger declines in trade with the European Union than with other countries a...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

To recover from Covid and Brexit, the UK must upskill its workforce

The twin forces of Covid-19 and Brexit are altering the skills that people require to succeed in work. Skill levels remain low in the UK, compared to other advanced nations. About 30% of adults have low skill levels in l...Read more...

Blog

VoxEu:

After Brexit: views of leading economists on future prospects for the UK and EU economies

The UK's exit from the EU was finally completed on 1 January 2021. The IGM Forum at Chicago Booth invited its panels of leading European and US economists to express their views on the likely long-term effects of Brexit ...Read more...

CEP occasional paper

Prices and inflation in the UK - A new dataset

This paper presents a new dataset of 41 million UK consumer prices, providing facts on the frequency, size and timing of price changes between 1988 and 2020. The micro data are the ‘price quotes’ of individual consumer p...Read more...

Blog

VoxEU:

Disunited Kingdom? Brexit, trade and Scottish independence

The Scottish National Party is calling for a second referendum on independence from the UK. This column examines the likely effect of changes in trade costs resulting from independence and Brexit on the Scottish economy,...Read more...

Blog

UK in a Changing Europe:

Brexit, trade and Scottish independence

Hanwei Huang, Thomas Sampson, and Patrick Schneider analysed the economics of Scottish independence by looking at its impact on trade. Independence would put a new border between Scotland and the rest of the UK, introduc...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

Disunited Kingdom? Brexit, trade and Scottish independence

Scotland is a small, open economy that mostly trades with the rest of the UK. There is around six times more trade between Scotland and the rest of the UK than predicted by a standard gravity trade model. Scottish indepe...Read more...

External publication

Brexit and beyond:

Brexit and UK trade: what next?

Brexit is expected to make the UK poorer in the long run compared to remaining an EU member. Although the analysis used to reach this conclusion is complex, most forecasts depend upon the same economic logic. Brexit will...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Are bigger banks better? Firm-level evidence from Germany

The effects of large banks on the real economy are theoretically ambiguous and politically controversial. I identify quasi-exogenous increases in bank size in post-war Germany. I show that firms did not grow faster after...Read more...

Blog

LSE Brexit:

Covid-19 has disrupted businesses' ability to prepare for Brexit, but the lack of clarity on the UK-EU relationship is worse

Almost half of businesses report that COVID-19 has negatively affected their ability to prepare for Brexit. More than half listed uncertainty on the future arrangements between the UK and EU as a limitation on their abil...Read more...

Blog

LSE Brexit:

The cost of Brexit is likely to be more than double that of Covid - it must be delayed

Whether we face Hard Brexit or No Deal, the long-run costs to the economy are likely to be more than twice that of COVID-19 - at least 2,000 GBP per person, warns John Van Reenen (LSE). He advocates delaying the exit fr...Read more...

Blog

LSE Covid-19:

A no-deal Brexit may still be more costly than Covid-19

Conventional wisdom holds that the impact of COVID-19 on the UK economy dwarfs the potential consequences of Brexit. This has led some Brexiteers to argue there is nothing to fear about a no-deal Brexit. Yet data show th...Read more...

External publication

Vulnerabilities of supply chains post-Brexit

Arla Foods UK has commissioned LSE Consulting's Trade Policy Hub to deliver a study on the vulnerabilities of supply chains in the United Kingdom and the European Union after Brexit. This study provides a follow up to th...Read more...

Blog

LSE Consulting:

Vulnerabilities of supply chains post-Brexit

Nikhil Datta, Jan Bakker, Elitsa Garnizova & Josh De-Lyon show how consumers in the UK are highly dependent on products originating in the EU, where 40 percent of all consumption of food products in the UK comes from EU ...Read more...

CEP Covid-19 analysis

Covid-19 and Brexit: Real-time updates on business performance in the United Kingdom

Nearly four months have passed since the UK went into lockdown to restrict the spread of Covid-19. The health effects have been severe, and an inevitable consequence of the lockdown was a huge 20 per cent decline in GDP ...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Covid-19 and Brexit: contrasting sectoral effects

Josh De Lyon and Swati Dhingra show that the UK sectors suffering less during lockdown are those most exposed to damage from leaving the European Union....Read more...

Journal article

European Economic Review:

Voting with their money: Brexit and outward investment by UK firms

We study the impact of the 2016 Brexit referendum on UK foreign direct investment. Using the synthetic control method to construct appropriate counterfactuals, we show that by March 2019 the Leave vote had led to a 17% i...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Rising protectionism and global value chains: quantifying the general equilibrium effects

Quantifying the effects of trade policy in the age of ’global value chains’ (GVCs) requires an enhanced analytical framework that takes the observed international input-output relations in due account. However, existing ...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Budget 2020: will it move the economy onto a sustainable and inclusive growth path?

The UK's challenges around productivity, regional disparities and the transition to net zero emissions are complex and interconnected, made even more so by the coronavirus outbreak and Brexit. Anna Valero argues that whi...Read more...

Blog

LSE European Politics and Policy Blog:

The implications of Brexit for the UK economy

The United Kingdom has now formally left the European Union, but what does the future hold for the British economy? Following a recent event at LSE, Gerard Lyons, Vicky Pryce and John Van Reenen took questions from LSE s...Read more...

Blog

BSI Economics:

Elections britanniques : quels enjeux pour le Brexit ? (Policy Brief)

Utilité de l’article : A l’approche des élections britanniques, l’incertitude quant à la tournure que prendra le Brexit est toujours importante. Cet article expose les scénarios possibles à ce jour ainsi que leurs conséq...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Exchange rates and consumer prices: evidence from Brexit

This paper studies how the depreciation of sterling following the Brexit referendum affected consumer prices in the United Kingdom. Our identification strategy uses input-output linkages to account for heterogeneity in e...Read more...

CEP election analysis

#GE2019Economists: the research evidence on key issues for voters in the 2019 UK General Election

The general election of 2019 was called after negotiations over how the UK should leave the European Union became increasingly tortuous. While Brexit may have been the trigger for the election, it was far from being the ...Read more...

Blog

LSE Brexit:

Immigration is no longer the most pressing concern among the electorate

Immigration is no longer the most pressing concern among the electorate going into this election that it was prior to the Brexit referendum, writes Jonathan Wadsworth (LSE). More than three years on, concerns about Europ...Read more...

Blog

LSE Brexit:

Three years on: the UK is paying a high economic price for its decision to leave the EU

How has the Leave vote affected the UK economy, ask Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson (LSE) in this second of two blogs based on the CEP Election Analysis briefing on Brexit. It summarizes CEP research on how the referend...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Brexit will leave the UK worse off economically in all scenarios

Since the UK voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, Brexit has dominated UK politics and economic policy. Three and a half years after the referendum, the UK is yet to leave the EU, there is no certainty over if...Read more...

Blog

LSE Brexit:

Economic consequences of Brexit are overwhelmingly negative

The economic consequences of Brexit are overwhelmingly negative, estimate Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson (LSE). The more the UK distances itself from the EU’s economic institutions and policies, the greater will be the...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

John Van Reenen: ‘A lot of promises are just smoke and mirrors’

As director of LSE's Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) up to 2016, British economist John Van Reenen led a team of academic researchers who produced detailed analysis of the consequences a divorce from the European U...Read more...

CEP election analysis

The UK economy: policies for investment and productivity growth

Since the global financial crisis, the UK has been grappling with persistent poor productivity performance. While a number of factors have been at play, reduced investment due to austerity harmed growth in the early year...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Brexit economics

Since the UK voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, Brexit has dominated UK politics and economic policy. Three and a half years after the referendum, the UK is yet to leave the EU, there is no certainty over if...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Economic insecurity breeds support for the right

Economic insecurity breeds support for the right Economic insecurity is attracting growing attention in social, academic, and policy circles. It has arguably risen for a number of reasons in recent years: the Great Rece...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Eurosceptic votes are less likely when EU interventions visibly boost local job markets

Eurosceptic votes are less likely when EU interventions visibly boost local job markets Anti-systemic political movements have emerged in recent years in a large number of countries across the globe. These parties genera...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Economic insecurity and the rise of the right

Economic insecurity has attracted growing attention in social, academic and policy circles. However, there is no consensus as to its precise definition. Intuitively, economic insecurity is multi-faceted, making any compr...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

The economic impact of Boris Johnson’s Brexit proposals

The Prime Minister Boris Johnson has set out a means of escaping the Brexit stalemate, but his new Brexit proposals have, as yet, not managed to overcome the impasse. What has been striking, though, is the extent to whic...Read more...

Blog

VOX:

New dawn fades: The post-referendum rise in import costs has hurt UK workers

Some commentators argue that globalisation is systematically connected to the real-wage and productivity stagnation seen across the developed world. This column analyses the relationship between international trade and w...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Voting with their money: Brexit and outward investment by UK firms

We study the impact of the 2016 Brexit referendum on UK foreign direct investment. Using the synthetic control method to construct appropriate counterfactuals, we show that by March 2019 the Leave vote had led to a 17% i...Read more...

CentrePiece article

In brief... Brexit and outward investment by UK firms

Media reports have highlighted that some UK firms have started to move production abroad in anticipation of Brexit. CEP analysis confirms that there has indeed been a substantial increase in outward investments. The shif...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

Trade and worker deskilling: how the post-Brexit pound has hurt Britain’s workers

The unexpected result of the Brexit referendum, working through the rapid depreciation of the sterling, has hurt British workers. New CEP work shows that the big drop in the value of the pound caused a rise in import pri...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Trade and worker deskilling

This paper presents new evidence on international trade and worker outcomes. It examines a big world event that produced an unprecedentedly large shock to the UK exchange rate. In the 24 hours in June 2016 during which t...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

Economic performance since the EU referendum

The impact of the Brexit vote can now begin to be evaluated with greater accuracy than previous forecasts, thanks to the emergence of new data. In the run-up to the UK’s referendum on membership of the European Union (EU...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

Voting with their money: Brexit and outward investment by UK firms

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has grown rapidly in recent decades. Through FDI, firms headquartered in the UK can own and operate subsidiaries throughout the world. FDI opportunities give firms a choice between investi...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The effect of the Brexit referendum result on subjective well-being

We study the effect of the Brexit referendum result on subjective well-being in the United Kingdom. Using a quasi-experimental design, we find that this outcome led to an overall decrease in subjective well-being in the ...Read more...

Journal article

Fiscal Studies:

The Economic Effects of Brexit: Evidence from the Stock Market

We study stock market reactions to the Brexit referendum on 23 June 2016 in order to assess investors� expectations about the effects of leaving theEuropean Union on the UK economy. Our results suggest that initial sto...Read more...

Journal article

Fiscal Studies:

Off EU Go? Brexit, the UK Labour Market and Immigration

Immigration remains a highly antagonistic issue and its purported effects in the labour market are still contestable. Against this background, the UK looks set to undertake a large overhaul of its immigration policy foll...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

The economic consequences of the Brexit deal

Amidst the political fighting and fevered speculation about leadership challenges and parliamentary defeats for the government, one crucial issue seems to have been lost from sight. The deal negotiated with the European ...Read more...

CEP industrial strategy paper

Local Economic Effects of Brexit: Factsheet

Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The economic effects of Brexit - evidence from the stock market

We study stock market reactions to the Brexit referendum on 23 June 2016 in order to assess investors’ expectations about the effects of leaving the European Union on the UK economy. Our results suggest that initial stoc...Read more...

CentrePiece article

The price of Brexit

Writing in the summer 2018 issue of CentrePiece magazine, Thomas Sampson notes that the full economic consequences of the UK’s leave vote will not be realised for many years. But two years after the referendum, we can al...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Brands in motion: how frictions shape multinational production

Following the 2016 Leave vote in the referendum on UK membership in the EU and the election of Donald Trump, trade agreements have entered a period of great instability. To predict the impact of possible disruptions to e...Read more...

Journal article

Papers in Regional Science:

UK trade and FDI: A post-Brexit perspective

Leaving the EU will reshape the UK's economic relations with the rest of the world. This paper summarizes the findings of recent research studying the UK's role in the global economy, and the consequences of Brexit for U...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Brexit: the economics of international disintegration

Pro-Brexit rhetoric mixes up two distinct interpretations of what made people vote to Leave the European Union – and they have very different policy implications. As Thomas Sampson explains, those voters wanting to recla...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

The Brexit vote, inflation and UK living standards

The vote to leave the European Union (EU) was an unanticipated shock to the UK economy that increased uncertainty and reduced the country’s expected future openness to trade, investment and immigration with the EU. Our r...Read more...

Journal article

National Institute Economic Review:

Local economic effects of Brexit

This paper studies local economic impacts of the increases in trade barriers associated with Brexit. Predictions of the local impact of Brexit are presented under two different scenarios, soft and hard Brexit, which are ...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Where industry is strong and where it’s weak – key facts of UK business geography

Financial services aren’t as London-centric as the creative industries, and the coast-inland divide is growing, write Sandra Bernick, Richard Davies, and Anna Valero. The UK’s financial services industry is not nearly as...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Perspectives:

Brexit: the economics of international disintegration

On June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom held a referendum on its membership in the European Union. Although most of Britain's establishment backed remaining in the European Union, 52 percent of voters disagreed and handed a...Read more...

Journal article

Economic Policy:

The costs and benefits of leaving the EU: trade effects

This paper estimates the welfare effects of Brexit in the medium to long run, focusing on trade and fiscal transfers.We use a standard quantitative general equilibrium trade model with many countries and sectors and trad...Read more...

CentrePiece article

In brief... Brexit: the impact on prices

Following last year’s referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union, there has been a significant rise in consumer prices, particularly food prices. Rising prices coupled with limited increases in nominal wages...Read more...

CEP report

Brexit and the future of globalisation?

Alongside the victory of Donald Trump in the 2016 US elections, Britain’s vote to leave the European Union (“Brexit”) in June 2016 reflects a global upsurge in populism. I find that under all plausible scenarios Brexit ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Brexit: the economics of international disintegration

This paper reviews the literature on the likely economic consequences of Brexit and considers the lessons of the Brexit vote for the future of European and global integration. Brexit will make the United Kingdom poorer b...Read more...

Blog

CVER Blog:

Brexit and the skills challenge

Sandra McNally, CVER's Director, on skills in the UK in light of Brexit. The UK's productivity suffered a shock in 2008 from which it has not recovered, and the 'skills problem' needs to be addressed. Within the context...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

The local economic effects of Brexit

This paper studies the local impacts of the increases in trade barriers associated with Brexit. Predictions of the local impact of Brexit are presented under two different scenarios, soft and hard Brexit. Average effects...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

UK trade and FDI: a post-Brexit perspective

Leaving the EU will change the UK’s economic relations with the rest of the world. This paper discusses the UK’s role in the global economy and the consequences of Brexit for the UK’s trade, investment and living standar...Read more...

CEP election analysis

#GE2017Economists: The Research Evidence on Key Issues for Voters in the 2017 UK General Election

The unexpected UK general election of 2017 was intended to be all about Brexit, one that will give the incoming government a mandate to negotiate the terms of the UK’s exit from the European Union (EU). But many other pu...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Brexit as Climate Policy: The Agenda on Energy and the Environment

The Great Recession and a sluggish economic recovery were instrumental in meeting the legally binding climate change targets that the UK has set for itself. But without more drastic policy interventions, it is unlikely t...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Brexit and the UK Economy

This general election is pitched as the ‘Brexit Election’, one that will give the incoming government a mandate to negotiate the terms of the UK’s exit from the European Union (EU). The Conservatives and Labour have both...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Immigration and the UK Economy

Immigration to the UK has grown a lot over the last 20 years and a significant fraction of this growth has been from other EU countries, especially after 2004 and the accession of the eight East European countries (‘A8’)...Read more...

CEP election analysis

The NHS and Social Care: Prospects for Funding, Staffing and Performance into the 2020s

Health featured prominently in the 2016 referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union (EU), with the Leave campaign’s claim that Brexit would mean that £350 million extra money per week could be transferred fro...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Real Wages and Living Standards in the UK

Since the global financial crisis of 2007/08, workers’ real wages and family living standards in the UK have suffered to an extent unprecedented in modern history. Real wages of the typical (median) worker have fallen by...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The costs and benefits of leaving the EU: trade effects

This paper estimates the welfare effects of Brexit, focusing on trade and fiscal transfers. We use a standard quantitative general equilibrium trade model with many countries and sectors and trade in intermediates, as in...Read more...

Journal article

Oxford Review of Economic Policy:

A hitch-hiker's guide to post-Brexit trade negotiations: Options and principles

Brexit will require the UK to negotiate new trade arrangements with the EU. After summarizing the main options for future UK-EU trade relations, this article reviews the purpose of trade agreements. We highlight that tra...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Spain's response to Brexit

Brexit puts at risk the close and mutually beneficial relationship that the UK and Spain have long enjoyed, according to Luis Garicano. With Spain unlikely to budge on freedom of movement and Gibraltar as a negotiating c...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Four principles for the UK's Brexit trade negotiations

The first priority in the UK government’s plans for Brexit trade negotiations should be to agree a transitional deal to cover its relations with the European Union (EU) until a long-term agreement is reached. What’s more...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Does immigration harm the job prospects of the UK-born? Brexit and the UK labour market

Following the referendum vote to leave the European Union, the UK faces a trade-off between retaining access to the Single Market and restricting free movement of labour. Barbara Petrongolo considers the likely impact of...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Who voted Leave?

If EU immigration had remained at its 1991 level, the Leave vote share may have been considerably lower. That is one of the conclusions of CEP research by Monica Langella and Professor Alan Manning, which explores the ef...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Brexit and the UK labour market

Following the referendum vote to leave the European Union, the UK faces a trade-off between retaining access to the Single Market and restricting free movement of labour. Barbara Petrongolo considers the likely impact of...Read more...

Blog

LSE European Politics and Policy Blog:

The aftermath of the Brexit vote – the verdict from a derided expert

John Van Reenen was disappointed but not surprised by the UK’s vote to Leave the EU. Whilst his own research predicts serious economic and political damage in the case of Brexit, he thought a Leave vote was a real possib...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

The aftermath of the Brexit vote – the verdict from a derided expert

John Van Reenen was disappointed but not surprised by the UK’s vote to Leave the EU. Whilst his own research predicts serious economic and political damage in the case of Brexit, he thought a Leave vote was a real possib...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Who voted Leave: the characteristics of individuals mattered, but so did those of local areas

Individual demographics had a huge effect in determining the outcome of the referendum, but the characteristics of local areas mattered as well, explain Monica Langella and Alan Manning. Immigration, the decline in manuf...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Foreign investors love Britain – but Brexit would end the affair

Foreign investment brings many benefits to the UK, including higher pay and productivity. But a Brexit vote could end it all, write Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. First, not being...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Why leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects

The economic consequences of leaving the EU have been a central focus of the referendum campaign. As June 23 draws near, Jagjit Chadha, Paul Johnson and John Van Reenen bring together the conclusions from their research ...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

BREXIT 2016: policy analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

On June 23rd, the British people will vote in a referendum over whether or not to remain in the European Union. It is the most important vote that most of us will have in our lifetimes. And one that will have major reper...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Brexit: the final assessment

John Van Reenen summarises the economic impact of a vote to leave the EU....Read more...

CentrePiece article

Why immigration is no reason to leave the EU

A major argument of Brexit campaigners is that leaving the European Union would give the UK more control over the flow of immigrants, who they claim hurt the jobs and pay of native-born workers. CEP research shows that E...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Foreign investors love Britain - but Brexit would end the affair

Investment from overseas brings many benefits to the UK economy, including higher pay and productivity. According to CEP research, leaving the European Union could lead to a fall in inward foreign direct investment in th...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Brexit: the impact on UK trade and living standards

For over two years, a CEP research team has been studying the likely impact on the living standards of UK households of a referendum vote to leave the European Union. The first of three reports summarised here focuses on...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

No one would be spared: how the costs of Brexit would be distributed across households

That leaving the EU would damage the overall economy is now being treated as more of a fact than a speculation. But those for Brexit argue that the rich will be negatively affected while the poor will benefit. This is no...Read more...

Blog

LSE European Politics and Policy Blog:

The ‘Britain Alone’ scenario: how Economists for Brexit defy the laws of gravity

There is a degree of consensus among economists that a Brexit will make us worse off. The exception is recent work by Economists for Brexit. Their forecast of income gains from Brexit contrasts with all other economic an...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

Who bears the pain? How the costs of Brexit would be distributed across income groups

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Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

The ‘Britain Alone’ scenario: how Economists for Brexit defy the laws of gravity

There is a degree of consensus among economists that a Brexit will make us worse off. The exception is recent work by Economists for Brexit. Their forecast of income gains from Brexit contrasts with all other economic an...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

‘ECONOMISTS FOR BREXIT’: A critique

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CEP Brexit analysis

Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK

A reduction in immigration from the European Union (EU) following a vote for Brexit would not lead to any improvement in living standards for those born in the UK. Cuts in EU immigration would not offset the big fall in ...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

The UK Treasury analysis of 'The long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives': CEP Commentary

Overly cautious assumptions in the Treasury’s recent report on the long-run consequences for the UK economy of leaving the European Union (EU) mean that it has probably underestimated the economic costs. That is one of t...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK

The third in a series of Brexit reports from the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP), examines how leaving the EU would affect UK incomes through changes in foreign investment in the UK. Leaving the European Union (EU)...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

The question is not whether Brexit will cost the UK in economic terms but how much

For over two years, a research team at the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) has been studying the likely impact of the UK leaving the European Union. Their latest report focuses on the impact of ‘Brexit’ through cha...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

The economic consequences of leaving the EU will depend on what policies the UK adopts following Brexit. But lower trade due to reduced integration with EU countries is likely to cost the UK economy far more than is gain...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

Life after Brexit : what are the UK’s options outside the European Union?

Suppose the UK votes to leave the European Union (EU): what happens next? This report outlines some of the options for the UK outside the EU and discusses the costs and benefits of each alternative....Read more...

CEP election analysis

#ElectionEconomics: The Research Evidence on Key Issues for Voters in the 2015 UK General Election

Please see the CEP #ElectionEconomics report(Paper 1)and the Executive Summary (Paper 2) that cover all the election 2015 briefings, discussing the research evidence on 15 of the UK's key policy battlegrounds: immigratio...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Should We Stay or Should We Go? The economic consequences of leaving the EU

We analyze the effects of Brexit on the UK economy. The most important economic consequence of Brexit would likely be reduced trade with EU countries. We consider an optimistic scenario with relatively small increases in...Read more...

Blog

LSE European Politics and Policy Blog:

Leaving the European Union would likely have a significant negative impact on the UK’s economy

How would leaving the EU affect the UK’s economy? Gianmarco Ottaviano, João Paulo Pessoa, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen outline findings from a new report on the economic consequences of a ‘Brexit’. They indicate th...Read more...