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Discussion papers

Findings from CEP's academic research are first published in our open-access discussion paper series.

Latest Discussion papers

CEP discussion paper
Who can produce what? Firm capabilities and product entry

Which firms supply which products? Modelling multi-product firms under heterogeneous markups, we recover firms? costs for produced products and develop an algorithm inspired by recommender systems to predict costs for un...Read more...

Luca Macedoni, John Morrow and Vladimir Tyazhelnikov

12 October 2026

CEP discussion paper
Quantifying non-tariff barriers: Brexit, input sourcing and firm performance

How successful is European integration in removing non-tariff trade barriers? We study how Brexit affected UK firms' input sourcing and sales. The post-Brexit Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) reduced sales and input...Read more...

Gustaf Dillner, Rebecca Freeman, Kalina Manova and Thomas Sampson

30 September 2026

CEP discussion paper
Organizing expertise with externalities: evidence from primary care

Many modern organizations use knowledge hierarchies, where frontline workers try to resolve tasks and pass those they cannot resolve to experts. But the implications of this organization of expertise are not well underst...Read more...

Amanda Dahlstrand, Shan Huang, Nestor Le Nestour and Guy Michaels

30 September 2026

CEP discussion paper
The labour market dynamics of households: eyes down for a full house

Little is known about the dynamic factors that shape movements in household labour market stocks. Expanding on the literature used to analyse individual labour market flows, we apply and extend dynamic techniques to the ...Read more...

Paul Gregg and Jonathan Wadsworth

30 September 2026

CEP discussion paper
Is it psychologically dangerous to live in a rich area? Evidence from census-matched micro data on UK suicides

This paper uses micro data on UK suicides to implement a new test of relative-deprivation theory. Research into the potential consequences of relative comparisons had in the past had to rely on subjective data on wellbei...Read more...

Caspar Kaiser, Ekaterina Oparina and Andrew J. Oswald

30 September 2026

CEP discussion paper
Measuring the prevalence and direction of innovation: a pilot approach using LLMs

This paper pilots a method for measuring firms' product and process innovation at scale. Our approach uses LLMs to complete a detailed innovation survey for a sample of 600,000 companies operating across 40 countries. Th...Read more...

Prashant Garg, Peter John Lambert, Ralf Martin and Denis Medvedev

28 September 2026

CEP discussion paper
The role of information frictions in study habit choice and academic performance

We study whether information frictions about the relative effectiveness of study methods distort how college students allocate multidimensional learning efforts and, in turn, affect their academic performance. Our baseli...Read more...

Agustina Affonso, Esteban M. Aucejo, Stephanie El Khoury and Tomas Larroucau

28 September 2026

CEP discussion paper
Revisiting test score forecasts and teacher value-added

We develop a framework for comparing forecasts in teacher value-added models. We apply it to interpret the teacher-switching test of Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff (2014), showing that the teacher-switching coefficient ca...Read more...

Tom Ahn, Esteban M. Aucejo and Jonathan James

28 September 2026

CEP discussion paper
Productivity in teams: double crewing for police

Whether working in a team or alone results in higher productivity has been extensively studied in many settings, often being a controversial issue. This is none more so than for the police. Whether single or double crewi...Read more...

Tom Kirchmaier, Stephen Machin, Matteo Sandi and Robert Witt

28 September 2026

CEP discussion paper
Explaining the predictive performance of police in cases of domestic abuse

Police in England and Wales are asked to predict the likelihood of serious recidivism in domestic abuse cases, with little support beyond a flawed questionnaire. To analyze their decisions, we first develop methods to de...Read more...

Jeffrey Grogger, Andrew Jordan and Tom Kirchmaier

26 August 2026

CEP discussion paper
Universities, new tasks, and the rise of services

Structural transformation from manufacturing to services varies sharply across US regions. We document that regions with universities, especially highly ranked research institutions, experience faster growth in high-skil...Read more...

Chang Liu and Kohei Takeda

20 August 2026

CEP discussion paper
Geopolitics and export miracles: firm-level evidence from US war procurement in Korea

How did geopolitics shape East Asia's economic development? We find that US military procurement during the Vietnam War - a shock which peaked at nearly 3% of South Korean GDP, rivaling the Marshall Plan - catalyzed Kore...Read more...

Philipp Barteska, Oliver Kim, Nathan Lane and Seung Joo Lee

20 August 2026

CEP discussion paper
Female-targeted hiring subsidies, firm learning, and women's employment

Women often struggle to re-enter employment after career breaks, possibly because employers are uncertain about their productivity. We study whether hiring subsidies help firms overcome this uncertainty and hire from thi...Read more...

Mimosa Distefano, Lorenzo Incoronato and Anna Raute

12 August 2026

CEP discussion paper
Defense promotion and industrial development

Major economies are rearming, and rearmament is itself industrial policy. I ask whether defense promotion - especially innovation policy - can drive industrial development beyond the defense sector. I synthesize evidence...Read more...

Nathan Lane

12 August 2026

CEP discussion paper
Is data privacy a losing game? Evidence from Apple's App Tracking Transparency (ATT) policy

We study the impact of Apple's App Tracking Transparency (ATT) policy, which requires apps to obtain explicit user permission before cross-app tracking, on the mobile gaming industry. Using SensorTower US data on the top...Read more...

Nestor Duch-Brown, Christos Genakos and Blair Yuan Lyu

12 August 2026

CEP discussion paper
Intergenerational income persistence in the Millennial generation

This paper provides new evidence on intergenerational income persistence for a recent UK cohort. Using Next Steps, a longitudinal study of people born in England in 1989-90 linked to administrative education records, we ...Read more...

Paul Gregg, Yuyan Jiang, Lindsey Macmillan, Nikki Shure and Gill Wyness

12 August 2026

CEP discussion paper
Brief yet effective: group counseling and college access for disadvantaged students

Large socioeconomic gaps in higher-education access and completion persist even among similarly talented students with access to generous funding, pointing to an important role for information frictions and unequal suppo...Read more...

Andres Barrios Fernandez, Josefina Eluchans Errazuriz and Fernanda Ramirez-Espinoza

12 August 2026

CEP discussion paper
Teachers' leniency: experimental evidence

Two teachers grading the same student can reach very different conclusions? yet little is known about which teacher characteristics drive such disagreement. We investigate this question through a large-scale online exper...Read more...

Etienne Dagorn, Isaac Parkes and Alberto Prati

12 August 2026

CEP discussion paper
Dynamic effects of trade

The existence of aggregate welfare gains from trade is one of the classic insights from international economics. However, these conventional welfare gains are static, in the sense that they take existing factor supplies ...Read more...

Benny Kleinman, Ernest Liu and Stephen J. Redding

3 August 2026

CEP discussion paper
Employer market power: models and methods

It is now widely recognized that employers hold some wage-setting power over workers, and several recent reviews cover the resulting surge of research on monopsony. We take a high-level view, introducing the idea of the ...Read more...

Ihsaan Bassier and Alan Manning

30 July 2026

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