Results

Blog

Handbook of Labor Economics:

Handbook Talk with Stephen Machin: How does crime impact the economy and society? (Podcast)

In this podcast episode dedicated to the new edition of the Handbook of Labor Economics, Professor from the London School of Economics discusses the recent advances in the Economics of Crime. What are the economic con...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of International Economics: Forthcoming

New dawn fades: Trade, labour and the Brexit exchange rate depreciation

This paper studies consequences of the large exchange rate depreciation occurring when the UK electorate unexpectedly voted to leave the European Union. Sterling plummeted, recording the biggest one-day depreciation of a...Read more...

Journal article

Oxford Open Economics:

Labour market inequality

Wage and earnings inequality has been on the rise in the United Kingdom (UK) since the late 1970s/early 1980s, and with faster increases than comparator countries, it is now one of the countries with the highest levels o...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Real wages, inequality and living standards

Real wage growth has stagnated. Policies which boost productivity or halt and reverse the trend to more employer power in wage bargaining are important in getting the UK out of the stagnation trap....Read more...

CentrePiece article

The national minimum wage: 25 years on

It is now just over a quarter of a century since a national minimum wage was introduced in the UK. Once a source of controversy due to fears that it would lead to fewer jobs, the policy has instead proved to be highly su...Read more...

CentrePiece article

A generation scarred by the Covid-19 pandemic

The impact of the pandemic on education means that pupils in England are on course for lower GCSE grades well into the 2030s. Lee Elliot Major, Andrew Eyles, Esme Lillywhite and Stephen Machin say that the school system ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Government contracting and living wages > minimum wages

Government procurement accounts for a significant share of GDP, and environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) clauses in government contracts have become common across developed economies. This paper studies o...Read more...

External publication

A generation at risk: rebalancing education in the post-pandemic era

We present for the first time a model of children's evolving socio-emotional and cognitive skills to assess how the educational and lifetime prospects of children of different ages, genders and socio-economic backgrounds...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

The national minimum wage - 25 years on

This month marks 25 years since a national minimum wage was introduced in the UK. Once a controversial policy, due to fears that it would lead to fewer jobs, it has instead proven to be highly successful. The minimum wag...Read more...

Journal article

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics:

Measuring Absolute Income Mobility: Lessons from North America and Europe

We use linked parent-child administrative data for five countries in North America and Europe, as well as detailed survey data for two more, to investigate methodological challenges in the estimation of absolute income m...Read more...

Journal article

LSE Public Policy Review:

Wage Controversies: Real Wage Stagnation, Inequality and Labour Market Institutions

Weak real wage growth, low wage work and higher wage inequality than the past are features of contemporary labour markets the world over. Longstanding wage controversies in economics are of relevance to them. This paper ...Read more...

Blog

LSE Research for the World:

The UK's relative decline has gone on long enough, it's time for a new economic strategy

The British economy is stagnating, but this doesn't have to be terminal, argue Torsten Bell and Stephen Machin, who set out The Economy 2030 Inquiry's roadmap to a new prosperity....Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

Youth custody: who ends up there and how does it affect their later lives?

There are severe long-term consequences for young people in the UK who spend time in youth custody, the majority of whom are boys. Those with very low grades, in special education facilities and with additional education...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

How have minorities been treated by the UK's judicial system?

Disparate treatment of minorities by the judicial system is not a construct of modern institutions. Irish defendants and victims faced harsher treatment and outcomes at London's Old Bailey in the 19th century. Lessons fr...Read more...

Book

Handbook of the Economics of Education
Volume 7

Handbook of the Economics of Education, Volume Seven describes the research frontier in key topical areas and sets the agenda for further work. Sections in this new release include Methods for Measuring School Effectiven...Read more...

CentrePiece article

The trouble with inactivity

Concerns about a recent rise in economic inactivity have prompted new policies aimed at discouraging early retirement and encouraging the labour force participation of women with young children. Stephen Machin and Jonath...Read more...

Journal article

The Economic Journal:

Does homeownership reduce crime? A radical housing reform from the UK

"Right to Buy" (RTB), a large-scale natural experiment whereby incumbent tenants in public housing could buy properties at heavily-subsidised prices, increased the UK homeownership rate by over 10 percentage points betwe...Read more...

CEP Covid-19 analysis

The self-employment trap?

The seventh LSE-CEP survey of the self-employed was undertaken in June 2023. The results revealed that the self-employed are still in the doldrums and their incomes and activity have not resumed to pre-pandemic levels. T...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Uncovering the association between school qualifications and youth custody

Youth custody has severe long-term consequences for detained young people. Stephen Machin, Sandra McNally and Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela investigate the relationship between GCSE qualifications and youth custody, and find t...Read more...

CEP occasional paper

The trouble with inactivity

Elevated concerns over the consequences of recent rises in the UK economic inactivity rate for growth, wages and prices have prominently featured in recent public debate about the labour market and the economy. This pape...Read more...

CentrePiece article

School qualifications and youth custody

Youth custody has severe long-term consequences for detained young people. Stephen Machin, Sandra McNally and Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela investigate the relationship between GCSE qualifications and youth custody, and find t...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Murphy's Law versus the luck of the Irish: Disparate treatment of the Irish in 19th-century courts

Using data from 100 years of trials at London's Old Bailey criminal court, Anna Bindler, Randi Hjalmarsson, Stephen Machin and Melissa Rubio-Ramos examine the processing of Irish defendants and victims by English juries ...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

Should the UK government get active about economic inactivity?

Concerns about a rise in economic inactivity have prompted new policies aimed at discouraging early retirement and encouraging the labour force participation of women with young children. Such interventions would be more...Read more...

Journal article

The Journal of Economic Inequality:

Intergenerational home ownership

This paper studies intergenerational links in home ownership, an increasingly important wealth marker and a measure of economic status in itself. Repeated cross sectional UK data show that home ownership rates have falle...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Murphy's Law or luck of the Irish? Disparate treatment of the Irish in 19th century courts

Using data on 100 years of 19th century criminal trials at London's Old Bailey, this paper offers clear evidence of disparate treatment of Irish-named defendants and victims by English juries. We measure surname Irishnes...Read more...

CEP Covid-19 analysis

From Covid-19 to collapse? The self-employed and the cost of living crisis

The sixth LSE-CEP survey of the self-employed was undertaken in November 2022 and found that the downward trend in income levels of the self-employed reported in May 2022 has continued. The cost of living crisis is hitti...Read more...

Journal article

Labour Economics:

Labour market shocks and parental investments during the Covid-19 pandemic

This paper studies spill-over effects of parental labour market shocks at two time points in the Covid-19 crisis: right after its onset in April 2020, and in January 2021. We use rich data from the UK to look at the cons...Read more...

Book

Handbook of the Economics of Education
Volume 6

The Handbook of the Economics of Education describes the research frontier in key topical areas and sets the agenda for further work. Modern analysis in the economics of education has made tremendous strides in understan...Read more...

CEP occasional paper

School qualifications and youth custody

A very small number of young people enter youth custody between age 16 and 18 (about 4 in 1000 males), yet the consequences are severe. They spend an average of 7 months in youth custody and such incarceration has been r...Read more...

Journal article

Scandinavian Journal of Economics: Forthcoming

Where is the land of hope and glory? The geography of intergenerational mobility in England and Wales

This paper presents a new analysis of intergenerational mobility across three cohorts in England and Wales using linked decennial census microdata focusing on occupation, home ownership, and education. Four main results ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

New dawn fades: trade, labour and the Brexit exchange rate depreciation

This paper studies consequences of the very large exchange rate depreciation occurring in June 2016 due to the UK electorate unexpectedly voting to leave the European Union. As news of a leave vote came in, the value of ...Read more...

Blog

Springer Nature Research Communities:

Towards Zero Waste: Segregation at Source Can Reduce Our Waste Footprint

Waste management is a key part of the UN Sustainable Development Goal 11 of making cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable. Fjolla Kondirolli, Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin outline the...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Company wage policy in a low-wage labor market

The question of how firms set wages for their employees has been of longstanding interest. In this paper, we investigate what models of wage determination are at play in a low-wage labor market. We exploit a sizable and ...Read more...

CEP Insights

Crime

What can economics tell us about crime? Economists have discovered that young people who leave school during a recession are more likely to end up in prison than those who enter the labour market when the economy is buoy...Read more...

CEP Covid-19 analysis

Covid-19 and the self-employed - A two year update

The fifth LSE-CEP survey of the self-employed of May 2022 provides an up to date picture of how Covid-19 and its aftermath keep affecting the self-employed. The findings show that, although working on average a little mo...Read more...

External publication

Power plays

The cost of living crisis and the return of strikes over pay and conditions have brought the issue of worker power to the fore in 2022. Although some have pointed to a tight labour market as enabling workers to demand hi...Read more...

External publication

Social mobility: past, present and future

Andrew Eyles, Lee Elliot Major and Stephen Machin forecast that relative income mobility levels in the UK could fall by as much as 12%, driven by learning loss in schools....Read more...

External publication

Labour market inequality

Wage and earnings inequality has been on the rise in the UK since the late 1970s / early 1980s, and with faster increases than comparator countries it is now one of the countries with the highest levels of wage and earni...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Political Economy:

Why does education reduce crime?

We provide a unifying empirical framework to study why crime reductions occurred due to a sequence of state-level dropout age reforms enacted between 1980 and 2010 in the United States. Because the reforms changed the sh...Read more...

Blog

LSE Covid-19:

Some of the self-employed are still struggling amid uncertainty about whether they could claim grants

The self-employed have not recovered from the pandemic despite five rounds of government support, find Robert Blackburn (University of Liverpool), Stephen Machin and Maria Ventura (LSE). More than a quarter are in financ...Read more...

CEP Covid-19 analysis

Covid-19 and the self-employed - 18 months into the crisis

A year and a half into the Covid-19 pandemic, growth and economic recovery are the latest watchwords amongst labour market commentators in the UK. In this report we continue to monitor the situation of the self-employed ...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Learning loss since lockdown

Young people in education have lost significant amounts of time in school during the pandemic - and this carries risks of lifetime scars. Lee Elliot Major, Andrew Eyles and Stephen Machin reveal the scale of learning los...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Move on up

In the third and final anniversary lecture marking 30 years since CEP began, director Stephen Machin focused on social mobility - the extent to which young people's opportunities in life can transcend their family backgr...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Living wages and age discontinuities for low-wage workers

This paper considers an emerging, highly policy relevant feature of minimum wages, studying what happens when a wage floor significantly higher than a nationally legislated minimum is imposed. The consequences of age-wag...Read more...

Blog

LSE Covid-19:

Pupils lost a third of their expected learning during Covid, with Wales and Scotland even further behind

Most pupils missed over half of their expected days in the classroom during the pandemic, write Lee Elliot Major, Andrew Eyles and Stephen Machin (LSE). Children in Scotland and Wales lost even more learning than those i...Read more...

CEP Covid-19 analysis

Learning loss since lockdown: variation across the home nations

Empirical analysis of secondary microdata, bespoke social mobility surveys and administrative school attendance data reveal the extent of learning losses that have evolved in the four nations of the UK over the year of t...Read more...

CentrePiece article

In brief... Covid-19 and self-employment

The pandemic has had particularly damaging economic effects on self-employed people in the UK. CEP has now run three surveys to capture the experience of these workers during the crisis. Stephen Machin and Maria Ventura ...Read more...

Blog

LSE Review of Books:

Book Review: What Do We Know and What Should We Do About Social Mobility? by Lee Elliott Major and Stephen Machin

In What Do We Know and What Should We Do About Social Mobility? Lee Elliott Major and Stephen Machin give an account of the long experience of social mobility in the UK, its barriers and a possible way out. Offering a st...Read more...

Blog

LSE Covid-19:

The 2020s will be a crunch decade that will determine the UK's trajectory into the mid-21st century

As vaccines roll out and restrictions are lifted, public debate is turning to the economic recovery from Covid-19 and the deepest annual downturn for 300 years that came in its wake. But viewing the years ahead simply as...Read more...

External publication

The UK's decisive decade: the launch report for The Economy 2030 Inquiry

This report marks the launch of The Economy 2030 Inquiry, a landmark collaboration between the Resolution Foundation and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, funded by the Nuffield Found...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Trends in intergenerational home ownership and wealth transmission

Prior research on trends in intergenerational mobility in economic status has focused chiefly on income and earnings. There is hardly any research on trends in intergenerational wealth transmission, at least in part beca...Read more...

CEP Covid-19 analysis

Covid-19 and the self-employed - ten months into the crisis

Almost a year into the Covid-19 crisis, it has become widely acknowledged that UK self-employment has been particularly hard hit. Here we continue our series investigating the experience of self-employed workers througho...Read more...

CentrePiece article

In brief... Losses in lockdown: jobs, income, education and mental health

During the pandemic, many parents have had to cope with losing their jobs or part of their income at the same time as they are obliged to manage home schooling. Claudia Hupkau, Ingo Isphording, Stephen Machin and Jenifer...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Unequal learning and labour market losses in the crisis: consequences for social mobility

The unequal learning and labour market losses arising in the UK due to the Covid-19 pandemic are used to assess the consequences for social mobility. Labour market and learning losses have been more pronounced for people...Read more...

External publication

IZA Research Report No. 105:

IZA Covid-19 crisis response monitoring: United Kingdom

On the 23rd of March, the United Kingdom locked down in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Subsequently, the UK economy suffered the biggest contraction of economic activity in 41 years, experiencing a 21.5% year-on-year...Read more...

Blog

VoxEU:

Closing the gap between vocational and general education: University Technical Colleges in England

England introduced University Technical Colleges - hybrid education institutions which combine general and vocational education - in 2010. This column presents the results from the first evaluation of the causal effect o...Read more...

Blog

LSE Covid-19:

What happened when parents lost their jobs during lockdown?

Many parents had to cope with losing their jobs or part of their income at the same time as they were forced to home school. How did this affect their children's learning and their mental health? Claudia Hupkau, Ingo Isp...Read more...

CEP Covid-19 analysis

Labour market shocks during the Covid-19 pandemic: inequalities and child outcomes

We study the effect of negative labour market shocks borne by parents during the Covid-19 crisis on resource and time investments in children and the channels through which negative labour market shocks experienced by pa...Read more...

CEP Covid-19 analysis

Covid-19 and the self-employed: six months into the crisis

Six months after Covid-19 first hit, it is clear that it is the greatest economic crisis of the modern age. The economy has contracted far more rapidly than in previous crises, with GDP dropping by a record 19.5 per cent...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Covid-19 and social mobility: the public support key policies that will help limit widening inequalities in employment and education

Lee Elliot Major, Andrew Eyles, and Stephen Machin present new data around public support behind the implementation of job guarantees, the reform of A-level and GCSE exams in 2021, and the abolition of predicted grades f...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Where is the land of hope and glory?

Children’s chances of doing well at school, going to university, getting a good job and owning a house are strongly influenced by their parents’ education, occupation and home ownership – but what about the impact of whe...Read more...

CEP Covid-19 analysis

Generation COVID: emerging work and education inequalities

The purpose of this brief paper is to present initial findings from the recently collected LSE-CEP Social Mobility survey, which was undertaken as part of our UKRI project ‘Generation COVID and Social Mobility: Evidence ...Read more...

CVER Research Paper

Gender, achievement, and subject choice in English education

In common with other OECD countries, there is a gender gap in educational achievement in England favouring girls. This carries through to tertiary education. On the other hand, boys are far more likely to engage in STEM ...Read more...

CVER Research Paper

Closing the Gap Between Vocational and General Education? Evidence from University Technical Colleges in England

Some countries, notably those which have long had a weak history of vocational education like the UK and the US, have recently seen a rapid expansion of hybrid schools which provide both general and vocational education....Read more...

Blog

LSE Covid-19:

Denied jobs and schooling, 'Generation Covid' faces a struggle to catch up

More than a tenth of young people have lost their jobs during the pandemic, and only 38% of pupils were getting the equivalent of a full day's schooling in lockdown. Lee Elliot Major (University of Exeter), Andrew Eyles ...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Public Economics:

Entry through the narrow door: the costs of just failing high stakes exams

In many countries, important thresholds in examinations act as a gateway to higher levels of education and/or improved employment prospects. This paper examines the consequences of just failing a particularly important h...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Perspectives:

Solo self-employment and alternative work arrangements: a cross-country perspective on the changing composition of jobs

The nature of self-employment is changing in most OECD countries. Solo self-employment is increasing relative to self-employment with dependent employees, often being associated with the development of gig economy work a...Read more...

Book

What Do We Know and What Should We Do About Social Mobility?

In this vital new book, Britain's first Professor of Social Mobility Lee Elliot Major and Stephen Machin, reveal the causes of the UK's low social mobility, explain why it's getting worse, and outline how we reverse this...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The crisis and job guarantees in urban India

This paper uses a new field survey of low-wage areas of urban India to show that employment and earnings were decimated by the lockdown resulting from the Covid-19 crisis. It examines workers’ desire for a job guarantee ...Read more...

CEP Covid-19 analysis

What can previous recessions tell us about the Covid-19 downturn?

The labour market effects of the Covid-19 crisis measured as of June 2020 are compared with the three most recent UK recessions: the early 1980s, the early 1990s, and the downturn induced by the global financial crisis i...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

The Covid Generation social mobility test: how to level up an even more unequal playing field created by the pandemic

Lee Elliot Major and Stephen Machin explain just how badly those aged under 25 appear to be faring in the labour market. They outline five proposals through which the government can help address both the classroom and wo...Read more...

Blog

LSE Covid-19:

How to stop UK's declining social mobility amid Covid-19

COVID-19 is increasing the divide in life chances between rich and poor. Lee Elliot Major and Stephen Machin (LSE) propose urgent actions to tackle economic and educational inequalities in Britain. Social distancing meas...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Covid-19 and social mobility

Lee Elliot Major and Stephen Machin propose urgent actions to tackle economic and educational inequalities in Britain...Read more...

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation

Economic impact of coronavirus

The Treasury Committee launched the first stage of this inquiry on 18 March when it issued a call for evidence on the speed, effectiveness and reach of the Government's and Bank of England’s immediate financial responses...Read more...

CEP Covid-19 analysis

Covid-19 and social mobility

Governments are having to balance short- and long-term interests, and the trade-offs they generate, as they try to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic. Social distancing measures may limit the number of immediate deaths f...Read more...

CEP Covid-19 analysis

Self-employment in the Covid-19 crisis

The Covid-19 shock is one of the largest economic shocks that has taken place in living memory. The crisis has served to highlight the challenges governments face in extending social insurance to self-employed workers, f...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Covid-19 is increasing the divide in life chances between rich and poor

Covid-19 is increasing the divide in life chances between rich and poor Lee Elliot Major and Stephen Machin propose reforms and urgent actions to tackle economic and educational inequalities in the UK....Read more...

Journal article

Journal of the European Economic Association:

Prices, Policing and Policy: The Dynamics of Crime Booms and Busts

In many historical episodes, the extent of criminal activity has displayed booms and busts. One very clear example is the case of metal crime, where in the face of big increases in value driven by world commodity prices,...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Does homeownership reduce crime? A radical housing reform in Britain

“Right to Buy” (RTB), a large-scale natural experiment by which incumbent tenants in public housing could buy properties at heavily-subsidised prices, increased the homeownership rate in Britain by over 10 percentage poi...Read more...

CentrePiece article

In brief... Pupil exclusion in academy schools

Schools in England that became academies before 2010 typically began to exclude significant numbers of their more disruptive pupils. Research by Stephen Machin and Matteo Sandi suggests that this was the result of the st...Read more...

Journal article

Oxford Review of Economic Policy:

Gender, achievement, and subject choice in English education

In common with other OECD countries, there is a gender gap in educational achievement in England favouring girls. This carries through to tertiary education. On the other hand, boys are far more likely to engage in STEM ...Read more...

Journal article

The Economic Journal:

Autonomous Schools and Strategic Pupil Exclusion

This paper studies whether pupil performance gains in autonomous schools in England can be attributed to the strategic exclusion of poorly performing pupils. England has had two phases of academy school introduction, the...Read more...

CEP election analysis

The labour market

The UK labour market, at first glance, seems to be playing at Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde. Employment (in terms of both levels and rates) is at record highs, yet wage growth has been extraordinarily weak. One view is that thes...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Social mobility

Debates over how to improve life prospects for people irrespective of their family background promise to be a key theme in the run-up to the 2019 General Election. This briefing summarises evidence on social mobility fro...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Generation gap: young Brits less likely to 'do better' than their parents

Doing better financially than your parents is an important marker of success, and for much of the last half century, real earnings growth in the UK was strong enough that most young people achieved this milestone. But re...Read more...

Blog

VOX:

New dawn fades: The post-referendum rise in import costs has hurt UK workers

Some commentators argue that globalisation is systematically connected to the real-wage and productivity stagnation seen across the developed world. This column analyses the relationship between international trade and w...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of the European Economic Association:

The introduction of academy schools to England's education

This paper studies the origins of what has become one of the most radical and encompassing programmes of school reform seen in the recent past in advanced countries�the introduction of academy schools to English educat...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Jihadi attacks, the media and anti-Muslim hate crime

Do international jihadi terror attacks lead to an increase in local anti-Muslim hate crimes? Analysing data from the Greater Manchester Police, Ria Ivandic, Tom Kirchmaier and Stephen Machin find that the Muslim populati...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Workers' falling share of firms' profits

To what extent do UK companies share their profits with employees? Brian Bell, Pawel Bukowski and Stephen Machin find that rent-sharing is on a much smaller scale today than during the 1980s and 1990s – and that the decl...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Trade and deskilling: how the post-referendum sterling depreciation hurt workers

The unexpected result of the Brexit referendum, working through the rapid depreciation of sterling, had a sizable negative impact on UK workers. New CEP work by Rui Costa, Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin shows that the ...Read more...

Journal article

Economic Policy:

Zero Hours Contracts and Labour Market Policy

The evolving nature of atypical work arrangements is studied. A particular focus is placed on one such form of work relation: zero hour contracts (ZHCs). The paper uses existing secondary data and new survey data collect...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

Trade and worker deskilling: how the post-Brexit pound has hurt Britain’s workers

The unexpected result of the Brexit referendum, working through the rapid depreciation of the sterling, has hurt British workers. New CEP work shows that the big drop in the value of the pound caused a rise in import pri...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Trade and worker deskilling

This paper presents new evidence on international trade and worker outcomes. It examines a big world event that produced an unprecedentedly large shock to the UK exchange rate. In the 24 hours in June 2016 during which t...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Amplifying Islamophobic hate crime: UK media in the wake of terror attacks

Ria Ivandic,Tom Kirchmaier, and Stephen Machin study the empirical connections between local anti-Muslim hate crimes and international jihadi terror attacks. They find that local Muslim populations face a media-magnified...Read more...

Journal article

The Review of Economic Studies:

The changing returns to crime: do criminals respond to prices?

To what extent does crime follow the pattern of potential gains to illegal activity? This article presents evidence on how criminals respond to this key incentive by reporting crime-price elasticities estimated from a co...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Jihadi attacks, media and local hate crime

Empirical connections between local anti-Muslim hate crimes and international jihadi terror attacks are studied. Based upon rich administrative data from Greater Manchester Police, event studies of ten terror attacks rev...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization:

The economic functioning of online drugs markets

The economic functioning of online drug markets using data scraped from online platforms is studied. Analysis of over 1.5 million online drugs sales shows online drugs markets tend to function without the significant mor...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Where is the Land of Hope and Glory? The geography of intergenerational mobility in England and Wales

Does the importance of your family background on how far you get in adulthood also depend on where you grow up? For England and Wales, a paucity of data has made this a difficult question to reliably answer. This paper p...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Rent sharing and inclusive growth

The long-run evolution of rent sharing is empirically studied. Based upon a comprehensive and harmonized panel of the top 300 publicly quoted British companies over thirty five years, the paper reports evidence of a sign...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Social mobility and its enemies

Increasingly it seems that the rich and poor of Britain are destined to stay on the same rungs of the economic or social ladder for successive generations. A new book by Lee Elliot Major and Stephen Machin calls for an a...Read more...

Book

Social Mobility and its Enemies

Apart from the USA, Britain has the lowest social mobility in the Western world. The lack of movement in who gets where in society - particularly when people are stuck at the bottom and the top - costs the nation dea...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Why does education reduce crime?

Prior research shows reduced criminality to be a beneficial consequence of education policies that raise the school leaving age. This paper studies how crime reductions occurred in a sequence of state-level dropout age r...Read more...

Submission to a parliamentary inquiry and government consultation

Select Committee on Intergenerational Fairness and Provision. Tackling intergenerational unfairness

Read more...

Journal article

Review of Economics and Statistics:

Crime scars: recessions and the making of career criminals

Recessions lead to short-term job loss, lower levels of happiness and decreasing income levels. There is growing evidence that workers who first join the labour market during economic downturns suffer from poor job match...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Costs of just failing high-stakes exams

School students who narrowly fail to achieve a grade C in their GCSE English exam at age 16 pay a high price, according to research by Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela and colleagues. Their study concludes that young people are n...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Metal crime: the impact of prices, policing and policy

Metal prices are strong drivers of metal crime, according to research by Tom Kirchmaier and colleagues. Their study traces how, over the past ten years, big rises in commodity prices led to a boom in metal crime in the U...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Care homes: effects of the National Living Wage

The National Living Wage, which was introduced in 2016, has substantially raised wages at the bottom of the hourly wage distribution in care homes in England, a sector that employs a large number of low-paid workers. Acc...Read more...

Journal article

Labour Economics:

Larrikin youth: Crime and Queensland's Earning or Learning reform

This paper analyses the impact of the introduction of an Earning or Learning reform on youth crime in Queensland, Australia. The 2006 reform increased learning and reduced earning as school participation rose post-reform...Read more...

Blog

ESRC blog:

Becoming a Research Institute: the Centre for Economic Performance

by Stephen Machin As Director of the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at LSE, I am delighted that the Centre has been named as one of the two inaugural ESRC Research Institutes. This is testament to the achievements...Read more...

Journal article

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy:

Changing how literacy is taught: evidence on synthetic phonics

A significant number of people have very low levels of literacy in many OECD countries. This paper studies a national change in policy and practice in England that refocused the teaching of reading around "synthetic phon...Read more...

Blog

CVER Blog:

Missing the mark at GCSE English: the costly consequences of just failing to get a grade C

School students who narrowly fail to achieve a grade C in their GCSE English exam pay a high price, according to new research by Stephen Machin, Sandra McNally and Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela. Getting above or failing to re...Read more...

CVER Research Paper

Entry through the narrow door: the costs of just failing high stakes exams

In many countries, important thresholds in examinations act as a gateway to higher levels of education and/or good employment prospects. This paper examines the consequences of just failing a key high stakes national exa...Read more...

CEP industrial strategy paper

Investing in People: The Case for Human Capital Tax Credits

It is now widely recognised that human capital accumulation and research and development (R&D) are key drivers of economic growth, as is documented in most standard textbooks (e.g. Acemoglu, 2007; Romer, 1996). Estimates...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Prices, policing and policy: the dynamics of crime booms and busts

In many historical episodes, the extent of criminal activity has displayed booms and busts. One very clear example is the case of metal crime, where in the face of big increases in value driven by world commodity prices,...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Changing the structure of minimum wages: firm adjustment and wage spillovers

This paper analyses the economic impact of a significant change to the structure of a minimum wage setting policy. The context is the United Kingdom where government mandated an unexpected change in the structure of mini...Read more...

CVER Briefing Note

Investing in People: The Case for Human Capital Tax Credits

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Journal article

Fiscal Studies:

Academies 2 - The new batch: the changing nature of academy schools in England

The English education system has undergone large-scale restructuring through the introduction of academy schools. The most salient feature of these schools is that, despite remaining part of the state sector, they operat...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Autonomous schools and strategic pupil exclusion

This paper studies whether pupil performance gains achieved by autonomous schools – specifically academy schools in England – can be attributed to the strategic exclusion of poorly performing pupils. In England there hav...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Labor Economics:

Minimum wages and firm value

How does the value of a firm change in response to a minimum wage hike? The evidence we have to date is not well-suited to answer this question, principally because events that have been studied are not completely unknow...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Public Economics:

Unexpected school reform: academisation of primary schools in England

The UK change of government in 2010 provoked a large structural change in the English education landscape. Unexpectedly, the new government offered primary schools the chance to have "the freedom and the power to take co...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Dark web: the economics of online drugs markets

The online market for buying and selling drugs is resilient and seems to bounce back rapidly after the exit of a large platform like Silk Road. That is one of the findings of research by Stephen Machin and colleagues, wh...Read more...

Journal article

National Institute Economic Review:

Local economic effects of Brexit

This paper studies local economic impacts of the increases in trade barriers associated with Brexit. Predictions of the local impact of Brexit are presented under two different scenarios, soft and hard Brexit, which are ...Read more...

CentrePiece article

In brief... Brexit: the impact on prices

Following last year’s referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union, there has been a significant rise in consumer prices, particularly food prices. Rising prices coupled with limited increases in nominal wages...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Geography:

Paying out and crowding out? The globalization of higher education

Increased globalization of higher education has occurred as more students from across the world now enrol in universities abroad for their post-school education. We study the consequences of having more foreign students ...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

The local economic effects of Brexit

This paper studies the local impacts of the increases in trade barriers associated with Brexit. Predictions of the local impact of Brexit are presented under two different scenarios, soft and hard Brexit. Average effects...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The economic functioning of online drugs markets

The economic functioning of online drug markets using data scraped from online platforms is studied. Analysis of over 1.5 million online drugs sales shows online drugs markets tend to function without the significant mor...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Home ownership and social mobility

There is much talk about the difficulties that many young people in Britain face in trying to acquire their first home. Research by Jo Blanden and Stephen Machin explores the links between home ownership and social mobil...Read more...

External publication

The impact of academies on educational outcomes - the Education Policy Institute

The expansion of the academies programme has been one of the biggest changes to the English education system in a generation. 3.4 million children are now taught in either a sponsored or a converter academy. Those childr...Read more...

CEP election analysis

#GE2017Economists: The Research Evidence on Key Issues for Voters in the 2017 UK General Election

The unexpected UK general election of 2017 was intended to be all about Brexit, one that will give the incoming government a mandate to negotiate the terms of the UK’s exit from the European Union (EU). But many other pu...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Real Wages and Living Standards in the UK

Since the global financial crisis of 2007/08, workers’ real wages and family living standards in the UK have suffered to an extent unprecedented in modern history. Real wages of the typical (median) worker have fallen by...Read more...

CEP real wages update

The Return of Falling Real Wages

The falling real wages experienced by most UK workers between 2008 and 2014 were followed by modest growth in 2015 and 2016. But it has now reversed back as real wages have once again started to fall. This is courtesy of...Read more...

Blog

ESRC blog:

How English care homes have coped with the National Living Wage

Giulia Giupponi is an ESRC-funded PhD student at the London School of Economics and a research assistant at the Centre for Economic Performance. Stephen Machin is Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics ...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Larrikin youth: can education cut crime?

If young people spend longer in school, are they less likely to commit crimes? Stephen Machin and international collaborators examine the impact on youth crime of an educational reform in Australia that raised the minimu...Read more...

CEP report

UK growth: a new chapter

The UK Economy is at a critical juncture. Leaving the EU creates economic challenges that necessitate widespread policy change. But this also generates an opportunity to tackle some of the long-standing challenges which ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Home ownership and social mobility

This paper extends the literature on social mobility to investigate intergenerational links in home ownership, an important marker of wealth. Repeated cross sectional data show that home ownership rates have fallen rapid...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Primary academies in England

Attendance at a primary academy leads to no discernible improvement in pupils’ test scores, according to research by Andrew Eyles, Stephen Machin and Sandra McNally. This suggests that further extension of the academies ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Larrikin youth: new evidence on crime and schooling

This paper reports new evidence on the causal link between education and male youth crime using individual level state-wide administrative data for Queensland, Australia. Enactment of the Earning or Learning education re...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Unexpected school reform: academisation of primary schools in England

The change of government in 2010 provoked a large structural change in the English education landscape. Unexpectedly, the new government offered primary schools the chance to have ‘the freedom and the power to take contr...Read more...

Journal article

Economics of Education Review:

Crime, compulsory schooling laws and education

Do compulsory schooling laws reduce crime? Previous evidence for the US from the 1960s and 1970s suggests they do, primarily working through their effect on educational attainment to generate a causal impact on crime. In...Read more...

Journal article

Labour Economics:

School reforms and pupil performance

The relationship between school reforms, specifically those involving the introduction of new school types, and pupil performance is studied. The particular context is the introduction of academy schools in England, but ...Read more...

Journal article

Economic Policy:

Academies, charter and free schools: Do new school types deliver better outcomes?

School reforms featuring the introduction of new types of schools have occurred in the education systems of a number of countries. The most well-known of these new school types to be recently introduced are charter schoo...Read more...

CentrePiece article

In brief... Children's reading: evaluating a new teaching method

Children at risk of struggling with their reading get long-term benefits from ‘synthetic phonics’, the current favoured method among education policy-makers in England. The benefits for disadvantaged pupils justify the f...Read more...

Book

Handbook of the Economics of Education
Volume 5

The volume of research into the economics of education has grown rapidly in recent years. In this comprehensive new Handbook, editors Eric Hanushek, Stephen Machin, and Ludger Woessmann assemble original contributions fr...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

"Teaching to teach" literacy

Significant numbers of people have very low levels of literacy in many OECD countries and, because of this, face significant labour market penalties. Despite this, it remains unclear what teaching strategies are most use...Read more...

Journal article

Economica:

The Rising Postgraduate Wage Premium

Despite post-college degree holders now making up nearly 15% of the US adult workforce, studies of their labour market performance remain sparse. This is surprising given that they are the most educated group in the labo...Read more...

CEP real wages update

The Current 2% UK Wage Growth Norm

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CentrePiece article

Crime and violence in Latin America and the Caribbean: towards evidence-based policies

Latin America and the Caribbean account for a third of the world’s homicides but under 10% of the world’s population. What’s more, homicide rates in the region are higher than they should be given countries’ levels of in...Read more...

CEP real wages update

Slowing UK Wage Growth

We have previously examined the path of nominal and real wages in the UK (Blanchflower and Machin, 2014a, 2014b, 2014c). In that work, we expressed the view that in recent years there has been sufficient slack in the lab...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Minimum wages and firm value

How does the value of a firm change in response to a minimum wage hike? The evidence we have to date is not well-suited to answer this question, principally because events that have been studied are not completely unknow...Read more...

Journal article

The Scandinavian Journal of Economics:

Valuing School Quality via a School Choice Reform

Among policymakers, educators, and economists, there remains a strong debate on the extent to which good schools matter. In this paper, we estimate school quality valuations based upon house prices, by considering a poli...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Academy schools and pupil outcomes

Nearly two thirds of secondary schools in England now have academy status. Andrew Eyles and Stephen Machin are tracking the impact of this unprecedented educational reform on pupil outcomes - in both the first wave of '...Read more...

CEP real wages update

UK real wages: a long way to go

Prospects for a boost in the real wages of UK workers remain bleak, despite some commentators still continuing to paint a more optimistic picture. This report, the latest in a new series of CEP Real Wages Updates, notes ...Read more...

CEP real wages update

Real wages continue to fall in the UK

Real wages continue to fall - in the UK and elsewhere - yet despite this striking feature of the labour market, some commentators anticipate resurgent pay growth in the near future. This report, the first in a new series...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Crime, compulsory schooling laws and education

Do compulsory schooling laws reduce crime? Previous evidence for the U.S. from the 1960s and 1970s suggests they do, primarily working through their effect on educational attainment to generate a causal impact on crime. ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Academies 2: the new batch

The English education system has undergone a large restructuring programme through the introduction of academy schools. The most salient feature of these schools is that, despite remaining part of the state sector, they ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The introduction of academy schools to England's education

We study the origins of what has become one of the most radical and encompassing programmes of school reform seen in the recent past amongst advanced countries – the introduction of academy schools to English secondary e...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Crime scars: can recessions produce career criminals?

Recessions typically raise youth unemployment and leave longterm labour market ‘scars’ on the young people concerned. Research by Brian Bell, Anna Bindler and Stephen Machin finds that they also have a disturbing and sub...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The changing returns to crime: do criminals respond to prices?

In economic models of crime individuals respond to changes in the potential value of criminal opportunities. We analyse this issue by estimating crime-price elasticities from detailed data on criminal incidents in London...Read more...

CEP election analysis

#ElectionEconomics: The Research Evidence on Key Issues for Voters in the 2015 UK General Election

Please see the CEP #ElectionEconomics report(Paper 1)and the Executive Summary (Paper 2) that cover all the election 2015 briefings, discussing the research evidence on 15 of the UK's key policy battlegrounds: immigratio...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Real Wages and Living Standards

Real wages and living standards have taken a hard hit in the UK in the recent past. Real wages of the typical (median) UK worker have fallen by almost 10% since 2008 and median family incomes have significantly fallen fo...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Overseas students: the impact on domestic student numbers

The rapid influx of international students into UK universities over the past two decades has expanded the number of places available for domestic postgraduates, according to research by Stephen Machin and Richard Murphy...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Paying out and crowding out? The globalisation of higher education

We investigate the rapid influx of overseas students into UK higher education and the impact on the number of domestic students. Using administrative data since 1994/5, we find no evidence of crowd out of domestic underg...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Crime scars: recessions and the making of career criminals

Recessions lead to short-term job loss, lower levels of happiness and decreasing income levels. There is growing evidence that workers who first join the labour market during economic downturns suffer from poor job match...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Falling real wages

The researchers note that there have been historically unprecedented falls in UK real wages since the start of the Great Recession. What’s more, the long US experience of stagnant real wages (median real weekly earnings ...Read more...

Journal article

The Economic Journal:

Crime Deterrence: Evidence From the London 2011 Riots

Significant riots occurred in London in August 2011. The riots took place in highly localised geographical areas, with crime going up hugely in the affected sub-wards. The criminal justice response was to make sentencing...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Lessons from the economics of crime

Olivier Marie explains the value of an economic approach to the analysis, design and evaluation of crime-fighting policies....Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology:

The UK Resilience Programme: A school-based universal nonrandomized pragmatic controlled trial

Objective: The study aimed to assess the effectiveness of an 18-hr cognitive behavioral group intervention in reducing depressive symptoms (and associated outcomes) in a universal sample of students in mainstream schools...Read more...

Journal article

Review of Economics and Statistics:

Crime and immigration: evidence from large immigrant waves

This paper focuses on empirical connections between crime and immigration, studying two large waves of recent UK immigration (the late 1990s/early 2000s asylum seekers and the post-2004 inflow from EU accession countries...Read more...

Book

Lessons from the Economics of Crime
What Reduces Offending?

Research from the United States, Europe, and South America demonstrates the usefulness of the tools of economic analysis for the study of crime. Economists who bring the tools of economic analysis to bear on the stu...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Crime and immigration: new evidence from England and Wales

We study a high profile public policy question on immigration, namely the link between crime and immigration, presenting new evidence from England and Wales in the 2000s. For studying immigration impacts, this period is ...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Education in Scotland: performance in a devolved policy area

As the people of Scotland consider their vote in next year's referendum, what evidence is there that the nation can succeed 'on its own'? Gill Wyness and colleagues explore how Scotland compares with the rest of the UK i...Read more...

Journal article

Educational Research:

Educational attainment across the UK nations: performance, inequality and evidence

Political devolution occurred in the UK in 1998-99, following many years in which some degree of policy administration had been devolved to the four nations. Since devolution, all four countries of the UK have pursued in...Read more...

CEP report

Education in a Devolved Scotland: A Quantitative Analysis

Education is an area that is highly devolved in the UK, and the fact that all four constituent countries have pursued very different policies in the recent past provides a good testing ground to undertake a comparative r...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics:

Valuing school quality using boundary discontinuities

Existing research shows that house prices respond to local school quality as measured by average test scores. However, higher test scores could signal higher academic value-added or higher ability, more sought-after inta...Read more...

CEP report

School Structure, School Autonomy and the Tail

In this paper, we survey the UK-based literature on school structures and school autonomy to identify settings in which alternative and more autonomous school arrangements can improve the educational attainments of pupil...Read more...

CEP US election analysis

Inequality and opportunity: the return of a neglected debate

During this election period many Americans are feeling angry towards the very rich, especially those working in the financial sector, who helped cause the Great Recession and yet were bailed out by the government. Increa...Read more...

CEE/Education and skills discussion paper

Valuing School Quality Using Boundary Discontinuities

Existing research shows that house prices respond to local school quality as measured by average test scores. However, higher test scores could signal better quality teaching and academic value-added, or higher ability, ...Read more...

Journal article

National Institute Economic Review:

The Evaluation of English Education Policies

Educational inequalities are evident even before children start school. Those connected to disadvantage widen out as children progress through the education system and into the labour market. We document various forms of...Read more...

CEE/Education and skills discussion paper

The Evaluation of English Education Policies

Educational inequalities are evident even before children start school. Those connected to disadvantage widen out as children progress through the education system and into the labour market. We document various forms of...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Immigrant Enclaves and Crime

There is conflicting evidence on the consequences of immigrant neighbourhood segregation for individual outcomes, with various studies finding positive, negative or insubstantial effects. In this paper, we document the e...Read more...

CentrePiece article

The boom in postgraduate education and its impact on wage inequality

Growing numbers of university students in Britain and the United States are staying on after their first degrees to invest in a postgraduate qualification. Joanne Lindley and Stephen Machin document this trend and assess...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Rising wage inequality and postgraduate education

This paper considers what has hitherto been a relatively neglected subject in the wage inequality literature, albeit one that has been becoming more important over time, namely the role played by increases in postgraduat...Read more...

Journal article

American Economic Review:

Panic on the streets of London: police, crime, and the July 2005 terror attacks

In this paper we study the causal impact of police on crime, looking at what happened to crime and police before and after the terror attacks that hit central London in July 2005. The attacks resulted in a large redeploy...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of the European Economic Association:

Crime and Police Resources: The Street Crime Initiative

In this paper we look at the connection between police resources and crime by focussing on a large-scale policy intervention—the Street Crime Initiative—that was introduced in England and Wales in 2002. This allocated ad...Read more...

Book

Handbook of the Economics of Education
Volume 4

What is the value of an education? Volume 4 of the Handbooks in the Economics of Education combines recent data with new methodologies to examine this and related questions from diverse perspectives. School choice and sc...Read more...

CEP occasional paper

Houses and schools: valuation of school quality through then housing market - EALE 2010 presidential address

This paper offers a critical appraisal of the now sizable empirical literature that values school quality and performance through housing valuations. This literature consistently finds housing valuations to be significan...Read more...

Journal article

The Economic Journal:

The crime reducing effect of education

In this article, we study the crime reducing potential of education, presenting causal statistical estimates based upon a law that changed the compulsory school leaving age in England and Wales. We frame the analysis in ...Read more...

CEE/Education and skills discussion paper

Changing School Autonomy: Academy Schools and their Introduction to England's Education

In this paper, we study a high profile case - the introduction of academy schools into the English secondary school sector - that has allowed schools to gain more autonomy and flexible governance by changing their school...Read more...

Journal article

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics:

Minimum wages and firm profitability

We study the impact of minimum wages on firm profitability, exploiting the changes induced by the introduction of a UK national minimum wage in 1999. We use pre-policy information on the distribution of wages to implemen...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Academy schools under Labour combated disadvantage and increased pupil achievement: the coalition’s new policy may exacerbate existing inequalities

With the recent accusation that Michael Gove has been sending ‘mixed messages’ over academy schools, it is clear that the policy is still very controversial. Stephen Machin and James Vernoit take a step back and compar...Read more...

Book

Handbook of the Economics of Education
Volume 3

How does education affect economic and social outcomes, and how can it inform public policy? Volume 3 of the Handbooks in the Economics of Education uses newly available high-quality data from around the world to address...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Academy schools: who benefits?

Stephen Machin and James Vernoit argue there has been a U-turn in academy schools policy under the new government...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

LSE Centre for Economic Performance – A Note on Academy School Policy

The Academies programme3 was first introduced by the Labour government in September 2002, with the stated aim of improving the educational outcomes of some of the most disadvantaged pupils in English secondary schools. T...Read more...

CEE/Education and skills special paper

Research on the Intergenerational Links in the Every Child Matters Outcomes.Report to the Department of Children, Schools and Families

The Every Child Matters (ECM) agenda was introduced in the UK, as a policy aiming to improve child outcomes along five broad areas. The categories are Be Healthy, Stay Safe, Enjoy and Achieve, Make a Positive Contributio...Read more...

CEE/Education and skills discussion paper

Variation in Educational Outcomes and Policies Across Countries and of Schools within Countries

This study examines the variation in educational outcomes across and within countries using the TIMSS mathematics tests. It documents the wide cross-country variation in the level and dispersion of test scores. Countries...Read more...

CentrePiece article

In brief... The educational background of postgrad students

Has the boom in postgraduate courses in the UK over recent years had a negative impact on intergenerational mobility? Research by Stephen Machin and Richard Murphy suggests that there is a small but significant imbalance...Read more...

CEE/Education and skills special paper

CEE Special Report: The Children's Workforce: A Data Scoping Study. A Report for the Department of Children, School and Family (DCSF)

There has been much policy interest on the theme of children's services in recent years. For example, the 1998 National Child Strategy explicitly aims to ensure good quality, affordable childcare for children aged 0 to 1...Read more...

CEP policy analysis

A Note on Academy School Policy

The Academies programme set up under the Labour government, beginning in 2002, has so far given Academy status to 203 English secondary schools. These schools were more significantly disadvantaged in terms of pre-Academy...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Crime and Immigration: Evidence from Large Immigrant Waves

This paper examines the relationship between immigration and crime in a setting where large migration flows offer an opportunity to carefully appraise whether the populist view that immigrants cause crime is borne out by...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The Crime Reducing Effect of Education

In this paper, we present evidence on empirical connections between crime and education, using various data sources from Britain. A robust finding is that criminal activity is negatively associated with higher levels of ...Read more...

CEE/Education and skills discussion paper

The Changing Economic Advantage From Private School

Despite its relatively small size, the private school sector plays a prominent role in British society. This paper focuses on changing wage and education differentials between privately educated and state educated indivi...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Inequality: Still Higher, But Labour's Policies Kept it Down

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CEE/Education and skills discussion paper

Valuing School Quality Via School Choice Reform

Among policymakers, educators and economists there remains a strong, sometimes heated, debate on the extent to which good schools matter. This is seen, for instance, in the strong trend towards establishing accountabilit...Read more...

CentrePiece article

In brief... Economic inequality in the UK

Stephen Machin, a member of the National Equality Panel, summarises its recent report...Read more...

CentrePiece article

In brief... Gender differences in test scores

Stephen Machin and Tuomas Pekkarinen explore the phenomenon of 'higher variance' in boys' educational performance relative to girls....Read more...

CentrePiece article

Academy schools and pupil performance

Stephen Machin and Joan Wilson present the first evaluation of the impact of academy schools on pupils' performance....Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Valuing School Quality Using Boundary Discontinuities

A large body of international research shows that house prices respond to local school quality as measured by average test scores. But better test scores could signal better expected academic outputs or simply reflect hi...Read more...

CEE/Education and skills discussion paper

What Makes a Test Score? The Respective Contributions of Pupils, Schools and Peers in Achievement in English Primary Education

This study develops an analytical framework for evaluating the respective contributions of pupils, peers, and school quality in affecting educational achievement. We implement this framework using rich data from England ...Read more...

CEE/Education and skills discussion paper

Education and Mobility

We show that the length of compulsory education has a causal impact on regional labour mobility. The analysis is based on a quasi-exogenous staged Norwegian school reform, and register data on the whole population. Based...Read more...

CentrePiece article

A continuing downward trend in intergenerational mobility?

Jo Blanden and Stephen Machin look at evidence on the life chances of children born into poor families since 1970....Read more...

CentrePiece article

Big ideas: Rising wage inequality

Stephen Machin surveys CEP's pathbreaking research findings on wage inequality....Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Public Economics:

The literacy hour

In countries like the UK and the US, a significant and challenging problem facing educators is how to ensure that future generations do not suffer from the severe basic skills problems that currently hinder a sizeable gr...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Panic on the Streets of London: Police, Crime and the July 2005 Terror Attacks

In this paper we study the causal impact of police on crime by looking at what happened to crime before and after the terror attacks that hit central London in July 2005. The attacks resulted in a large redeployment of p...Read more...

Book

The Economics of Education and Training
Studies in Empirical Economics

Education and training are key to explain the current competitive strengths of national economies, and to secure future competitiveness.  While in the past educational and training institutions were often seen as p...Read more...

CEE/Education and skills discussion paper

Competition for private and state school teachers

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CentrePiece article

Higher education and the labour market

There are no problems of graduate over-supply or over-qualification,according to Stephen Machin and Sandra McNally...Read more...

Journal article

The Economic Journal:

New technology in schools: is there a payoff?

Despite its high relevance to current policy debates, estimating the causal effect of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) investment on educational standards remains fraught with difficulties. We exploit a cha...Read more...

Chapter

Education expansion and intergenerational mobility in Britain

in Schools and the Equal Opportunity Problem

Leading researchers from the United States and Europe report on new findings on the effect of education on equal opportunity, using economic and statistical techniques to assess the results of education policy reform in ...Read more...

CEP report

Changes in Wage Inequality

We examine trends in wage inequality in the US and other countries over the past four decades. We show that there has been a secular increase in the 90-50 wage differential in the US and the UK since the late 1970s. By c...Read more...

CEE/Education and skills discussion paper

Resources and Standards in Urban Schools

Despite being central to government education policy in many countries, there remains considerable debate about whether resources matter for pupil outcomes. In this paper we look at this question by considering an Englis...Read more...

CentrePiece article

The educational impact of parental choice and school competition

A central focus of current education policy is to expand parents' choice over where their children go to school and to promote competition between schools. A long-running CEP research programme by Stephen Gibbons, Stephe...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Panic on the streets of London

The terrorist attacks of 7 July 2005 resulted in a very large redeployment of police officers to central London boroughs. New research by Mirko Draca, Stephen Machin and Robert Witt looks at the impact of this increased ...Read more...

CentrePiece article

New technology in schools: is there a payoff?

Economists have typically been sceptical that computers improve educational outcomes. But research by Stephen Machin, Sandra McNally and Olmo Silva finds evidence that new technology can have a positive effect on pupils'...Read more...

CEE/Education and skills discussion paper

The Mobility of English School Children

In this paper we examine links between pupil mobility and pupil and school characteristics at all levels of compulsory schooling in England. We derive measures of mobility from two academic years of the Pupil Level Annua...Read more...

CEE/Education and skills discussion paper

Education Policy in the UK

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CEP discussion paper

Minimum Wages and Firm Profitability

Although there is a large literature on the economic effects of minimum wages on labour market outcomes (especially employment), there is hardly any evidence on their impact on firm performance. This is surprising: minim...Read more...

CEE/Education and skills discussion paper

Gender and Student Achievement in English Schools

The widening gap between the average educational achievement of boys and girls has been the subject of much discussion. This gap is especially controversial for students taking national exams at the end of their compulso...Read more...

CEE/Education and skills discussion paper

New Technology in Schools: Is There a Payoff?

Read more...

CEE/Education and skills discussion paper

Competition, Choice and Pupil Achievement

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CentrePiece article

Can more police resources reduce crime?

New research by Stephen Machin and Olivier Marie finds that the Street Crime Initiative, introduced in 2002, has been highly effective in reducing the number of robberies. Increased police resources can have a big impact...Read more...

Book

What's the Good of Education?
The Economics of Education in the UK

Volumes have been written about the value of more and better education. But is there sufficient evidence to support the commonly held belief that we, as individuals and as a community, should be investing more in educati...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

New Survey Evidence on Recent Changes in UK Union Recognition

This paper reports results from a recent survey we conducted on the union status of over 650 firms in the private sector of the UK. Compared to earlier periods, the survey shows that since 1997 there has been a slight fa...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Crime and Police Resources: The Street Crime Initiative

In this paper we look at links between police resources and crime in a different way to the existing economics of crime work. To do so we focus on a policy intervention - the Street Crime Initiative - that was introduced...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Social mobility in Britain: low and falling

The government wants 'to create a Britain that is economically successful because it is socially mobile'. But new research by Jo Blanden, Paul Gregg and Stephen Machin indicates that social mobility is not only declining...Read more...

CentrePiece article

What's the good of education?

What is the economic value of investments in education made by individuals, firms and governments? A new book edited by Stephen Machin and Anna Vignoles provides top quality empirical evidence on the diverse set of issue...Read more...

Chapter

Changes in intergenerational mobility in Britain

in Generational Income Mobility in North America and Europe

What economic regimes offer children born into poor families the best hope of moving into higher income groups? This study analyzes and contrasts the experience of the more free market based North American and British ec...Read more...

CEE/Education and skills discussion paper

The Literacy Hour

Literacy matters. One in five adults in the UK is not functionally literate and this has serious implications for their well-being and economic circumstances, as well as for national productivity. To ensure that this pro...Read more...

CEE/Education and skills discussion paper

Paying for primary schools: supply constraints, school popularity or congestion?

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Journal article

Journal of Human Resources:

Crime and economic incentives

We explore the role that economic incentives, particularly changes in wages at the bottom end of the wage distribution, play in determining crime rates. We use data on the police force areas of England and Wales between ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Crime and Benefit Sanctions

In this paper we look at the relationship between crime and economic incentives in a different way to other work in this area. We look at changes in unemployment benefits and the imposition of benefit sanctions as a mean...Read more...

Chapter

Mobility and joblessness

in Seeking A Premier Economy: The Economic Effects Of British Economic Reforms, 1980-2000

The perceived impact of location on economic opportunity has been a constant refrain in discussions of the economic performance of the United Kingdom for as long as anyone can remember and the source of much feeling th...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Large benefits, low cost

Is the government's National Literacy Strategy effective? Stephen Machin and Sandra McNally look at the evidence from the pilot project....Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Valuing Rail Access Using Transport Innovations

In this paper we implement a powerful empirical approach than has not previously been applied to rail transport evaluation to ascertain how much consumers value rail access. We study the effects on house prices of a tran...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Looking for HRM/Union Substitution: Evidence from British Workplaces

In this paper we test the HRM/union substitution hypothesis that human resource management (HRM) practices act as a substitute for unionization. We use British workplace data between 1980 and 1998 which allows us to exam...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Unto them that hath...

Since the introduction of GCSE, more children from poorer backgrounds are staying in school post-16. But, argues Stephen Machin, it is middle-class children who have won most from the huge expansion of higher education....Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Factors of Convergence and Divergence in Union Membership

This paper considers to what extent union decline in Britain has been characterised by convergence or divergence in union membership rates for people with different personal and job characteristics. It compares data on i...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Cross-Generation Correlations of Union Status For Young People in Britain

In this paper we investigate whether young people whose fathers are union members are themselves more likely to join a union. The work builds upon a large social science literature on intergenerational mobility that, to ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Where the Minimum Wage Bites Hard: the Introduction of the UK National Minimum Wage to a Low Wage Sector

Between 1993 and April 1999 there was no minimum wage in the UK (except in agriculture). In this paper we study the effects of the introduction of a National Minimum Wage (NMW) in April 1999 on one heavily affected secto...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Upgrading the workers

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CEE/Education and skills discussion paper

Changes in Intergenerational Mobility in Britain

This paper flatly contradicts the common view that anyone can make it in modern Britain. Indeed, rather then weakening, the link between an individual's earnings and those of his or her parents has strengthened. An impor...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The Structure of Wages in What Should be a Competitive Labour Market

This paper examines the structure of wages in a very specific labour market, for care assistants in residential homes for the elderly on England's 'sunshine coast'. This sector corresponds closely to economists' notion...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Changes in intergenerational mobility in Britain

This paper compares and contrasts estimates of the extent of intergenerational income mobility over time in Britain. Estimates based on two British birth cohorts show that mobility appears to have fallen in a cross-cohor...Read more...

CEE/Education and skills discussion paper

Valuing Primary Schools

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CEE/Education and skills discussion paper

The Relationship between Resource Allocation and Pupil Attainment: A Review

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Journal article

The Review of Economic Studies:

The changing distribution of male wages in the UK

This paper uses microeconomic data from the UK Family Expenditure Surveys (FES) and the General Household Surveys (GHS) to describe and explain changes in the distribution of male wages. Since the late 1970s wage inequal...Read more...

CentrePiece article

How are the mightly fallen

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CEP discussion paper

Union Decline in Britain

In this paper I consider the rapid decline in the unionization rate that has occurred in Britain since the late 1970s. An establishment based analysis reports that the overwhelming factor in explaining falling unionizati...Read more...

CentrePiece article

What will the new centre do? The new centre for the economics of education

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CentrePiece article

Does crime pay better?

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Journal article

Journal of Labor Economics:

The effects of minimum wages on employment: theory and evidence from Britain

Recent work on the economic effects of minimum wages has stressed that the standard economic model, where increases in minimum wages depress employment, is not supported by empirical work in some labor markets. We presen...Read more...

Journal article

The Quarterly Journal of Economics:

Technology and changes in skill structure: evidence from seven OECD countries

This paper compares the changing skill structure of wage bills and employment in the United States with six other OECD countries (Denmark, France, Germany, Japan, Sweden, and the United Kingdom). We investigate whether a...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Minimum wage: maximum impact?

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CEP discussion paper

The Causes and Consequences of Long-Term Unemployment in Europe

One of the most striking features of European labour markets is the high incidence of long-term unemployment. In this paper we review the literature on its causes and consequences. Our main conclusions are that: the rise...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Child Development and Success or Failure in the Youth Labour Market

In this paper we examine the relationship between childhood factors and subsequent economic and social success or failure as an adult. Unlike many studies which typically have little data on pre-labour market factors (ot...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Implications of Skill-Biased Technological Change: International Evidence

Demand for less skilled workers decreased dramatically in the US and in other developed countries over the past two decades. WE argue that pervasive skill-biased technological change, rather than increased trade with the...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Blighted lives: disadvantaged children and adult unemployment

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CEP discussion paper

Technology and Changes in Skill Structure: Evidence from an International Panel of Industries

Much of the dramatic change in skill and wage structure observed in recent years in the United States is believed to stem from the impact of new technology. This paper compares the changing skill structure of wages and e...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Product Market Competition Wages and Productivity: International Evidence from Establishment-Level Data

That greater product market competition has the potential to affect outcomes in labour and product markets is borne out one by one of the key premises of standard economic theory which predicts that, all other things hel...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Intergenerational Mobility in Britain

In this paper we use longitudinal data on children and their parents to assess the extent of intergenerational mobility in Britain. Based on data from the National Child Development Survey, a cohort of all individuals bo...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Executive pay: are the fat cats getting fatter

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CEP discussion paper

Trade Unions and Training Practices in British Workplaces

We use establishment-level data from the 1991 Employers Manpower and Skills Practices Survey (EMSPS) and individual-level data from the Autumn 1993 Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) to investigate the links between tr...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The Changing Distribution of Male Wages in the UK

This paper uses microeconomic data from the UK Family Expenditure Surveys and the General Household Surveys to describe and explain changes in the distribution of male wages from 1965 to 1992. Both education and age diff...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Trade Unions and Financial Performance

This paper investigates the relationship between trade unions and financial performance using British establishment-level data in 1990, following the anti-union legislation of the 1980s. We estimate the overall impact of...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Changes in the Relative Demand for Skills in the UK Labour Market

In this paper I document changes in the distribution of employment in the UK labour market in the 1980s. I use two longitudinal data sources, an industry-level panel data set between 1979 and 1990 and the panel component...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The Effect of Minimum Wages on UK Agriculture

Since the abolition of the Wages Councils in September 1993, agriculture is the only sector in the UK economy covered by any form of minimum wage legislation. This paper investigates the impact of the system of minimum w...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Estimating the Effect of Minimum Wages on Employment from the Distribution of Wages: A Critical View

In two papers, Meyer and Wise (1983a,b) present an ingenious method for estimating the effect of minimum wage rates on wages and employment using data based only on the observed cross-sectional distribution of wages. The...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The Effects of Minimum Wages on Employment: Theory and Evidence from Britain

Since the abolition of the Wages Councils in September 1993, agriculture is the only sector in the UK economy covered by any form of minimum wage legislation. This paper investigates the impact of the system of minimum w...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Are Workers Paid their Marginal Product? Evidence from a Low Wage Labour Market

Because of labour market frictions, the supply of labour to a firm does not fall instantaneously to zero if an employer cuts wages. This gives employers some monopsony power. In the absence of trade unions, minimum wages...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Trade Unions and the Dispersion of Earnings in UK Establishments

In this paper we examine the relationship between unions and earnings dispersion using data from 1980, 1984 and 1990 Workplace Industrial Relations Surveys. The initial focus is on the cross-section relationship using th...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

What has Happened to Union Recognition in Britain?

This paper examines the determinants of union recognition status using data from the three Workplace Industrial Relations Surveys of 1980, 1984 and 1990. Our theoretical approach argues that the level of industry quasi-r...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Minimum Wages

Debate about the effect of minimum wages on employment in the United Kingdom has not paid much attention to the impact of the existing system of minimum wages, the Wages Council. In this paper, we look at the consequence...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The Employer Size-Wage Effect: Is Monopsony the Explanation?

This paper looks at evidence on the employer size-wage effect for the UK using data from the General Household Survey, British Social Attitudes Survey and the Workplace Industrial Relations Survey. We find that much larg...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The Economic Effects of Multiple Unionism: Evidence from the 1984 Workplace Industrial Relations Survey

This paper uses establishment-level data from the 1984 workplace Industrial Relations Survey to investigate the relationship between the presence of multiple recognised unions and wages, financial performance and the inc...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Signals and Cycles Productivity Growth and Changes in Union Status in British Companies

Productivity growth in 329 companies (total employment = 1.96 million workers) is analysed for the period 1984-1989. The study breaks new ground by (i) analysing the impact of changes in union status - such as repudiatio...Read more...