How does the Treasury estimate for “losses” compare with other economists’?

Many independent economists have suggests some reduction in GDP growth from Brexit, and a few have suggested possible gains. The Treasury’s predicted “loss” of 6.2 per cent is much higher than most of those studies. 

The Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, whose work is cited by the Treasury, put the figure between 1.3 and 2.6 per cent.   Oxford Economics, a consultancy whose work the Treasury used, says 3.9 per cent, and suggested at least one of the figures the Treasury used to reach its conclusion was unusually high.

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