It's beginning to dawn on Brexit voters that leaving the EU will be a disaster for working people. Inflation is back as a direct result of the 18 per cent devaluation of the pound since June 23. The forecast for price rises next year is three to four per cent, which doesn't sound like much but most of this is going to be on essentials such as food, clothing, energy and transport, which will disproportionately hit those on already tight family budgets. Meanwhile, the Guardian reported yesterday that the UK Cabinet has been presented with three independent reports (from the Treasury, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research and the London School of Economics) forecasting an average loss of 4.5 per cent of GDP by 2030. That is equivalent to a major economic recession spread over 15 years. We are talking about losing hundreds of billions of pounds in economic output if Britain is forced out of the EU customs union, the destination of half of Britain's exports. We know who will pay the price of the public spending cuts that will ride on the back of this fall in national wealth. Brexit ministers pooh-pooh this as pessimism and negativity from Bremoaners and Eurowhingers. But they've demonstrably failed to come up with any alternative forecasts, or indeed any coherent plan for dealing with the consequences of isolation. Intoxicated by their referendum victory, Brexiters seem to be more interested in fantasising about new Royal Yachts and inspecting the teeth of migrant children.
This article was published online by The Herald Scotland on October 20, 2016
Link to article here
Related publications
June 20, 2016
CEP, NIESR and IFS blog
Leaving the EU would almost certainly damage our economic prospects
Economists for Brexit: A Critique, Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series, Paper No.6, May 2016
See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here
Related links
Holger Breinlich webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Hanwei Huang webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage
Read more... The Herald Scotland