Customs return seems unlikely, according to a recent study (November 2015) of the Center for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics who bet on the establishment of a free trade agreement. ''However, an increase in the costs of at least 2 per cent trade appears inevitable, due to non-tariff barriers. However, if tariffs were to be reinstated, some French, but few companies could be tempted to settle locally in order to propose the ''Made in Britain'' and thus circumvent these fees. But the main consequence of the Brexit in the longer term, will be the weakening of the local market, ''estimated at 6 per cent by 2030 by the British Treasury''. Consequence: the French companies could revise downward their inclinations to anchor in this market. ''The final impact will depend on the decision of whether to maintain trade preferences between the continent and the United Kingdom, despite an exit from the EU'' concluded the study.
This article was published online by Finyear (France) on June 29, 2016
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Related publications
See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here
Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage
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