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Investment Adviser:
Fallout forecasts polarise opinion

30 May 2016

The EU referendum debate has started to focus on the economic fallout of a leave vote for the UK - and also for Europe. Research from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released in April suggests a Brexit vote could see UK GDP growth contract by 3.3 per cent by 2020, and by 2030 the central base-case scenario means a GDP contraction of 5.1 per cent. It adds the economic consequences of a leave vote could also spread beyond the UK, with European GDP growth contracting around 1 per cent by 2020. In a speech presenting the findings, however, Angel Gurria, secretary-general of the OECD, said the estimates - not just from the OECD but also the London School of Economics and HM Treasury - ''are too cautious''.

This article was published online by the FT Investment Adviser on May 30, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
The UK Treasury analysis of 'The long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives': CEP Commentary, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Series Paper No.04, April 2016 See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage