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TXFNews (Trade and Export Finance):
How would Brexit affect UK trade?

22 June 2016

The UK Treasury's estimate forecasts trade volumes declining by between 14% and 19% by 2030 in comparison to their current trajectory, on the assumption that the UK agrees a bilateral trade deal with the EU similar to that recently agreed by Canada. Although, some believe this forecast a tad severe: Oxford Economics modelled the same scenario and came up with a 7% fall in volumes. The London School of Economics' Centre for Economic Performance predicts that, in the long term, lower trade with the EU could cost the UK as much as 9.5% of GDP.

This article was published online by TXFNews on June 22, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Holger Breinlich webpage
Hanwei Huang webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage

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