FT.com:
Brexit: what is in store for the economy
15 June 2016
Very costly in all scenarios: Centre for Economic Performance
The prediction: A hit to trade in all likely scenarios will bring GDP 6.3-9.5 per cent lower by 2030 than if the UK stayed in.
The reasoning Even if the UK strikes a free-trade agreement with the EU, non-tariff barriers - such as rules of origin regulations - would hamper growth. The worst estimates assume the economy will become less efficient over the long term due to less competition from EU nations.
Criticism Does not assume any impact due to change in migration or a reduction in regulations.
This article was published by the FT.com on June 15, 2016
Link to article here
Related publications
See the complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis research papers here
Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Holger Breinlich webpage
Hanwei Huang webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage