In phase three, after the negotiated settlement, the economic effects are the subject of wide and varying analysis and speculation, based largely on the eventual outcome of the settlement. Put simply, there are two main variables: what will the settlement be and what are the effects of such a settlement? Most economic studies report that Brexit would damage the UK economy. Three recent reports from Centre for Economic Performance, the CBI/PWC and Oxford Economics all consider that in the worst case scenario the long-term effects would average about minus £4,000 per annum per household, while the best outcome would vary from minus £680 to plus £70. Martin Wolf, associate editor and chief economic commentator of the FT, forthright as usual, says: ''A vote for Brexit is a leap into the abyss''. UK Industry and Financial ''establishment'' figures are prominent amongst those predicting an unfavourable outcome for Brexit.
This Report was published by the Caledonian Trust PLC on March 31, 2016
Link to the Report here
Related publications
The complete series of Brexit Papers are available online here
Related links
Holger Breinlich webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Hanwei Huang webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
Growth Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Read more... Caledonian Trust PLC