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BBC News:
EU Referendum Reality Check: Would Brexit cut wages by #38 per week?

1 June 2016

The claim: Trade union umbrella body the TUC says leaving the EU would cut average earnings by £38 per week by 2030.
Reality Check verdict: The TUC has taken other bodies' forecasts that leaving the EU would lead to slower growth in the economy and used them to predict lower wages. While the precise figures are highly uncertain, if you believe the forecasts for the economy you can also believe that wages would be lower. TUC general secretary Frances O'Grady says: ''Working people will be £38 a week worse off if we leave''. Where has that figure come from? In its report, the TUC has taken the average of the falls in GDP (that's what you get when you add up the value of everything produced in the economy) for 2030, predicted by the OECD, the Treasury and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, as well as the fall in wages expected by the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR).

This article was published online by BBC News Reality Check on June 1, 2016
Link to article here

Related reports
Better off in. Working people and the case from remaining in the UK, TUC Report, June 1, 2016.
[See Table 5.]

Related publications
The complete series of Brexit Papers are available online here

Related links
Holger Breinlich webpage
Swati Dhingra webpage
Hanwei Huang webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage

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