The possibility of the UK leaving the European Union (EU) has generated an unusual degree of consensus among economists. Acrimony and rancour surrounded debates around austerity and joining the euro, but analysis from the Bank of England to the OECD to academia has all concluded that Brexit would make us economically worse off. The disagreement is mainly over the degree of impoverishment (for example, Dhingra et al, 2016a; OECD, 2016; HM Treasury, 2016; PWC, 2016; NIESR, 2016). Perhaps the one exception is the recent and much publicised work of 'Economists for Brexit' (2016). Since any coherent economic case for leaving the EU was been largely 'missing in action', it is refreshing to get some clarity over the Leave campaign's vision of the UK's post-Brexit economic arrangements. The only modelling details provided by Economists for Brexit come from Professor Patrick Minford of Cardiff University (Minford, 2015; 2016; Minford et al, 2016). He argues that Brexit will raise the UK's welfare by 4% as a result of increased trade.
This article was published online by the LSE Business Review blog on May 27, 2016
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Related publications
Economists for Brexit: A Critique, Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis No.06, May 2016
The complete series of Brexit Papers are available online here
Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage
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