Is Britain better off outside the EU? Over the past four days, three economic research groups have attempted to answer that question. All recognise the question is difficult because no one knows what relationship the UK will be able to strike with the rest of the EU if it votes to leave, or whether links to other countries will change. Economists do not generally claim these models provide a clear answer, but they do claim to offer insight into the magnitude of the issue and the importance of the assumptions. All of the three groups - the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, CBI/PwC and Oxford Economics - provide a range of likely outcomes depending on the relationship Britain strikes with the EU if it leaves. None are estimated using the same techniques. All suggest that leaving the bloc will have a significant cost for British households, although under certain assumptions, those costs can be contained, they suggest.
This article was published by the Financial Times on March 22, 2016
Link to article here
Related publications
Life after Brexit: What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis No.01, February 2016
The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis No.02, March 2016.
Download the accompanying Technical Paper here
See the complete CEP Brexit Analysis Series here
Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Hanwei Huang webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage
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