The UK in a changing Europe:
The manifestos uncovered: trade
6 June 2017
Article by Swati Dhingra
Unlike some other countries – the US and France spring to mind – trade has not been a major issue in recent UK elections. This reflected both EU membership and a broad political consensus that, within the EU, the UK should argue for a relatively liberal approach. Brexit, however, will mean the most fundamental reorientation of UK trade policy in forty years, so it not surprising that it is much more prominent in manifestos for this election. The Liberal Democrats would stay in the single market and the customs union. Free movement of goods, services, capital and people would continue, and trade policy would still be set at the EU level. The loss of market access that would follow from leaving the EU would be minimized. Labour are less specific, to the point of inconsistency – they retain the option of being in the single market and the customs union, but also say that Brexit will mean an end to free movement, which is inconsistent with single market membership. The Conservatives’ plans are rather more detailed. Immigration controls are central to their Brexit plan, which means that we will leave the single market, while the aspiration to do new trade deals with countries outside the EU means leaving the customs union. Together, this means a “hard Brexit”. If there is no new deal with the EU after the two-year period – the hardest possible Brexit – the UK would revert to World Trade Organization rules.
Related publications
‘Brexit and the UK Economy’, Swati Dhingra, Thomas Sampson, CEP 2017 General Election Analyses Paper No.40, May 2017
http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea040.pdf
‘The Consequences of Brexit for UK Trade and Living Standards’, CEP Brexit Analysis No. 2 by Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, March 2016
http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit02.pdf
‘Brexit: the impact on UK trade and living standards’, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CentrePiece Volume 21, Issue 1, Summer 2016