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Reality Check: Would Brexit be good for the UK economy?

28 April 2016

A group of eight well known economists have released a report under the banner of Economists for Brexit, explaining how they think leaving the EU would be good for the UK economy. They predict that, in 2020, the UK economy would grow 3.4% if the UK left the EU, while it would grow only 2.5% if the UK remained. Their conclusions are outside the current economic mainstream on Europe, with most models assuming that free trade, free movement and open economies are automatically a good thing.

While we have previously warned about the uncertainties involved in economic modelling, that is why it is no surprise organisations such as the IMF, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the Treasury and the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) have all predicted considerable losses to the economy following a Brexit.

The analysis from the CEP, an influential group based at the London School of Economics, considered what would happen if the UK unilaterally removed all tariffs. It still predicted a negative effect on the economy from leaving the EU, but said going tariff-free improved the outcome by 0.3 percentage points.

This article was published by BBC News online on April 28, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.03, April 2016
The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.02, March 2016
Life after Brexit : What are the UK’s options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.01, February 2016

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage

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