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LSE British Politics and Policy Blog:
The question is not whether Brexit will cost the UK in economic terms but how much

21 March 2016

For over two years, a research team at the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) has been studying the likely impact of the UK leaving the European Union. Their latest report focuses on the impact of 'Brexit' through changing trade patterns. Under 'optimistic' assumptions, there is a fall in national income of 1.3 per cent (about £850 per household). Under 'pessimistic' assumptions, this doubles to 2.6 per cent. When the dynamic effects of higher trade costs on productivity are included, the cost may rise to between 6.3 per cent and 9.5 per cent in the long run

This article was published by the LSE British Politics and Policy blog on March 21, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards,Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.02, March 2016
Life after Brexit: What are the UK's options outside the European Union?, Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson, CEP Brexit Analysis Paper No.01, February 2016

Related links
Swati Dhingra webpage
Gianmarco Ottaviano webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Thomas Sampson webpage
Trade Programme webpage
Growth Programme webpage

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