Results

Blog

VoxTalks:

Tariff Confusion (podcast)

If you run a business that exports to the United States, how big is the tariff you have to pay? In 2025 that question was hard to answer. Between February and December, 53 separate announcements introduced, delayed, rein...Read more...

Blog

LSE Management:

How America out-deindustrialised Europe

Despite the prevailing narrative of Western deindustrialisation as one of a rigid Europe and a dynamic America, Richard Baldwin, Saul Estrin, and Bob Hancke argue that the comparison of the EU with the US turns this narr...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of International Economics:

How to grow an invoicing currency: micro evidence from Argentina

We study the internationalization of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) leveraging a unique policy experiment. In 2023, amid a dollar shortage, Argentina expanded a currency swap line with China. The share of imports from China ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The civil war reduced slave owners' economic power but increased their political influence

Did Southern elites? economic losses from abolition translate into diminished political influence? Using novel census-linked data on state lawmakers across four slave owning and two Northern states (1850?1880), we docume...Read more...

CentrePiece article

How the US-China trade conflict boosted exports and employment in Mexico

Lower-paid workers in Mexican firms gained as exports shifted....Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Segregation, spillovers and the locus of racial change

We use a discrete choice framework to provide the first nesting of Thomas C. Schelling's canonical models of racial segregation amenable to empirical examination. Using U.S. Census data from 1970-2000, we demonstrate a c...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

How to grow an invoicing currency: micro evidence from Argentina

How can a currency achieve more widespread international use? We study the internationalization of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) through the lens of a unique policy experiment in Argentina. In 2023, amid a severe dollar sho...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

How the 2018/19 US tariffs against China boosted exports and employment in Mexico

In 2018 and 2019, the US administration hiked tariffs on imports from China. This column shows that imports from Mexico partly filled the gap, leading to an export and employment surge in Mexico. Using highly disaggregat...Read more...

Blog

LSE Politics and Policy:

The UK deals with India, USA and the EU are symbolic

The Labour Government is on a trade deal spree. After signing a free trade agreement with India, the UK made a pact with the US to remove some of the tariffs on UK car and aerospace exports, and finally a new agreement w...Read more...

Blog

Financial Times:

How should central banks respond to US tariffs? (Podcast)

US tariffs have sent financial markets into a frenzy in recent weeks, but how much should central bankers be taking trade into account when setting monetary policy? To find out, Soumaya Keynes sits down with Bank of Engl...Read more...

Journal article

The Quarterly Journal of Economics:

Putting quantitative models to the test: an application to the US-China trade war

The primary motivation behind quantitative work in international trade and many other fields is to shed light on the economic consequences of policy changes and other shocks. To help assess and potentially strengthen the...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

US-China tensions could become the biggest trade war in history

The announced US tariffs and the retaliatory actions taken by China have intensified. If the threats are carried out, they will drive the average implied US tariff to exceed 20 per cent, a level not seen since the 1930s....Read more...

CentrePiece article

Property rights empower women inventors

Breakthrough innovations occurred when women obtained the right to reap economic rewards from their inventions. Ruveyda Nur Gozen shows how such inclusive policies are a critical driver of economic growth....Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

US electoral impact of remote work and inter-state migration

Remote work and geographic mobility have surged in the US since 2020. This column examines trends for both and discusses the potential electoral implications. The authors find that remote work opportunities are dispropor...Read more...

Blog

Bocconi:

The European consequences of the America first approach

Whether it is Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump who wins the upcoming US presidential election, the country's trade policies will be marked by strong continuity: with that of the Biden administration for ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

A political disconnect? Evidence from voting on EU trade agreements

We study votes of Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) on the approval of free trade agreements (FTAs). Against widespread Eurosceptic arguments, we find that MEPs are responsive to the interests of their electorate...Read more...

Blog

What works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Why the new government needs to be clearheaded on local growth

There are lots of local disparities in the UK. Health, education, levels of crime, employment rates and more diverge significantly across places. These disparities came into focus at the time of the 2019 election, where ...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Research evidence on key issues in the 2024 UK General Election

A collection of 11 briefings produced by CEP during the 2024 general election campaign providing a snapshot of the UK economy....Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

The UK must invest in further and higher education

Education has not been a prominent part of the election debates, and further education even less so. But as Sandra McNally, Guglielmo Ventura and Gill Wyness argue, economic growth depends on paying much more attention t...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Energy and climate change

The scale of change and investment required for net zero is challenging, but early action is the most cost-effective way to achieve the 2050 target and could bring opportunities....Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

Ideas for the UK - election economics collection

Prospects for taxes and public services have been central in the election campaign. But the UK faces many other challenges, including housing, skills, climate, inequalities, energy, trade and policies to address the foun...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Real wages, inequality and living standards

Real wage growth has stagnated. Policies which boost productivity or halt and reverse the trend to more employer power in wage bargaining are important in getting the UK out of the stagnation trap....Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

How can the next government ensure better evidence use for achieving economic growth?

Whichever party wins this week's election will face big challenges, including achieving stronger local economic growth. Knowing how to do this - which mix of interventions will be most effective, and where to target them...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Further and higher education

There are not enough graduates for sectors in which the UK has a comparative advantage and there are too few people educated to sub-degree level compared to other countries....Read more...

CEP election analysis

Schools

Schools in England, and the UK as a whole, need greater investment. Failure to do so puts economic growth in jeopardy as well as worsening social mobility....Read more...

CEP election analysis

Wellbeing

Wellbeing should be the overarching aim of government. Assessing policies by showing the wellbeing benefit relative to cost would mean mental health becoming a top priority for policy development....Read more...

Blog

LSE EUROPP:

How climate change concerns affect voters

In recent years, there has been a noticeable rise in temperatures and extreme heatwaves across the UK and Europe. Older people may be particularly vulnerable to this, with indications of a 30% increase in heat-related de...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Immigration

In 2023, the majority of migrants were workers or students, and their dependants. Humanitarian immigration also increased - with visa schemes set up for those fleeing Ukraine and Hong Kong....Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

How do the 2024 manifestos compare to the evidence on local growth?

Two weeks from election day, we have manifestos from the main parties. In this blog, we look at the Labour and Conservative manifestos and ask what existing evidence tells us about the likely effectiveness of some of the...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Housing and planning

The housing affordability crisis not only restricts access to decent housing, or housing at all, but it has adverse effects on equality, social cohesion, retirement planning, productivity and economic growth....Read more...

CEP election analysis

Work, wages and inactivity

The recent aggregate performance of the UK labour market looks good. But aggregate performance often obscures important changes around averages. Inequality along several dimensions remains a persistent feature of the UK ...Read more...

Blog

LSE Politics and Policy:

Stop performative Brexit and do what works for the British economy

Brexit has left its mark on UK international trade, although, so far, the effect has been smaller than economists expected. Dennis Novy, Thomas Sampson and Catherine Thomas review recent UK trade performance and argue th...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

Ideas for the UK: election economics international week

What is the right level of migration for the UK? Is the country on track to meet its commitments on tackling climate change? And how will big changes in the world trading environment affect the economy? Our fourth electi...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Spatial disparities in productivity and income

This briefing looks at the causes and consequences of UK spatial disparities and what, if anything, policy can do to address them....Read more...

Blog

What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth:

Spatial disparities in productivity are central to the future of levelling up

In the run-up to the election, our colleagues at the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) are running a series of election analysis articles, where world-leading economists give their take on the state of different area...Read more...

Blog

LSE Politics and Policy:

How to grow the UK's dwindling productivity

The UK economy is stuck. GDP growth per person has been anaemic over the last 14 years, and last year it actually fell. The cause behind these concerning figures is the collapse in the growth of productivity. If the next...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

University degrees: how should we assess their value?

Evaluating university degrees on the basis of the job prospects they provide for graduates has led to some being seen as 'low value' or 'low quality'. But, in reality, their worth is hard to measure. Closing such courses...Read more...

Blog

Politics and Policy:

Can Starmer avoid the mistakes of the past?

Many think that the UK's crisis is the result of a series of mistakes individual prime ministers made: Boris Johnson, Theresa May, Liz Truss. But a deeper look reveals the source of these mistakes: the ideology of rampan...Read more...

Blog

United States Politics and Policy:

Will the US remain the world's superpower? | LSE iQ and The Ballpark podcast

A shining city on a hill. America the beautiful. The United States has long been mythologised as the land of dreams and opportunity. And since the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s it has been undisputedly the ...Read more...

Blog

British Politics and Policy:

What economists think of Labour's economic policy

The UK will soon have an election and, if the polls are right, Labour will take power for the first time since 1997. There are many similarities between now and then. As in 1997, the Conservative party look tired, voters...Read more...

Blog

LSE USAPP:

Corporate landlords are eroding the American dream of homeownership, especially in black neighborhoods

There has been a growing trend for institutional investors to purchase single-family homes and convert them to permanent rental properties. At the same time, homeownership rates for black households have declined on par ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Does Chinese research hinge on US co-authors? Evidence from the China initiative

Launched in November 2018 by the Trump administration, the China Initiative made administrative procedures more complicated and funding less accessible for collaborative projects between Chinese and US researchers. In th...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The shift to remote work lessens wage-growth pressure

The recent shift to remote work raised the amenity value of employment. As compensation adjusts to share the amenity-value gains with employers, wage-growth pressures moderate. We find empirical support for this mechanis...Read more...

Blog

LSE USAPP:

Citizen complaints can be a useful early warning system for governments to act on environmental violations.

Is enabling citizens to complain about public services an effective way of improving government services, or should we be more concerned about their accuracy and reliability? In new research, Jonathan Colmer, Mary Evans,...Read more...

Blog

LSE USA Politics and Policy:

Long Read: Economics experts agree that a US debt default would do substantial damage to financial markets

In January, the US federal government reached the debt ceiling previously set by Congress, and is now using extraordinary measures to meet its public spending obligations. The Initiative on Global Markets Forum at the Un...Read more...

Journal article

European Journal of Social Psychology:

Worldview defence and self-determination theory explain the return of racial voting: evidence from the 2016 US election

We use self-determination (SDT) and worldview defence theories (WDT) to explicate the psychological roots of identitarian voting in recent US, UK and EU elections. We test our theory using the 2016 US election as a case ...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists:

Climate-related natural disasters and voting behavior: evidence from environmental legislation in the US Senate

This study investigates whether US senators are more likely to vote in favor of environmentally friendly legislation following damages caused by climate-related natural disasters. We combine senatorial scores of roll cal...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Nonparametric measurement of long-run growth in consumer welfare

How should we measure long-run changes in consumer welfare? This paper proposes a nonparametric approach that is valid under arbitrary preferences that depend on observable consumer characteristics, e.g. when expenditure...Read more...

Blog

VoxEU:

Import liberalisation as export destruction: evidence from the United States

Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain, Dennis Novy and Thomas Sampson look at US-China trade relations to examine how import liberalisation brings down import costs and increases competition, but can also lead to lower export ...Read more...

Blog

VoxEU:

Inflation, market power, and price controls: views of leading economists

With sharply rising US inflation prompting debate about the potential role of powerful firms in driving up prices and whether antitrust interventions and/or price controls may be an effective policy response, the IGM For...Read more...

Blog

VoxEU:

Covid-19 uncertainty: a tale of two tails

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a massive spike in uncertainty. This column uses data from panel surveys of US and UK business executives to document how uncertainty over own-firm sales growth rates over the...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The donut effect of Covid-19 on cities

Using data from the US Postal Service and Zillow, we quantify the effect of Covid-19 on migration patterns and real estate markets within and across US cities. We find two key results. First, within large US cities, hous...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The impact of Covid-19 on US firms

We use survey data on an opt-in panel of around 2,500 US small businesses to assess the impact of Covid-19. We find a significant negative sales impact that peaked in Quarter 2 of 2020, with an average loss of 29% in sal...Read more...

CentrePiece article

In brief... The long shadow of slavery

The politics and economy of the antebellum American South were dominated by those who practiced forced enslavement. Research by Luna Bellani, Anselm Hager and Stephan Maurer, which examines a database of Texas legislator...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology:

(Un)happiness and voting in US presidential elections

A rapidly growing literature has attempted to explain Donald Trump's success in the 2016 U.S. presidential election as a result of a wide variety of differences in individual characteristics, attitudes, and social proces...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The long shadow of slavery: the persistence of slave owners in Southern law-making

This paper documents the persistence of the Southern slave owning elite in political power after the end of the American Civil War. We draw on a database of Texan state legislators between 1860 and 1900 and link them to ...Read more...

CentrePiece article

People, places and politics: the challenge of 'levelling up' the UK

As has been much discussed since the election, economic performance varies widely among the towns, cities and regions of the UK. Henry Overman argues that policies to address these spatial disparities should be judged on...Read more...

CEP election analysis

#GE2019Economists: the research evidence on key issues for voters in the 2019 UK General Election

The general election of 2019 was called after negotiations over how the UK should leave the European Union became increasingly tortuous. While Brexit may have been the trigger for the election, it was far from being the ...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Brexit will leave the UK worse off economically in all scenarios

Since the UK voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, Brexit has dominated UK politics and economic policy. Three and a half years after the referendum, the UK is yet to leave the EU, there is no certainty over if...Read more...

Blog

LSE Brexit:

Economic consequences of Brexit are overwhelmingly negative

The economic consequences of Brexit are overwhelmingly negative, estimate Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson (LSE). The more the UK distances itself from the EU?s economic institutions and policies, the greater will be the...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Brexit economics

Since the UK voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, Brexit has dominated UK politics and economic policy. Three and a half years after the referendum, the UK is yet to leave the EU, there is no certainty over if...Read more...

CEP election analysis

People, places and politics

Economic performance varies widely between the towns, cities and regions of the UK. On some measures, this variation has widened since the financial crisis. These disparities have already proved to be a key theme in the ...Read more...

CEP election analysis

The labour market

The UK labour market, at first glance, seems to be playing at Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde. Employment (in terms of both levels and rates) is at record highs, yet wage growth has been extraordinarily weak. One view is that thes...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Social mobility

Debates over how to improve life prospects for people irrespective of their family background promise to be a key theme in the run-up to the 2019 General Election. This briefing summarises evidence on social mobility fro...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The effect of the Brexit referendum result on subjective well-being

We study the effect of the Brexit referendum result on subjective well-being in the United Kingdom. Using a quasi-experimental design, we find that this outcome led to an overall decrease in subjective well-being in the ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Surprise! Out-of-network billing for emergency care in the United States

Using insurance claims data capturing 8.9 million emergency episodes, we show that in 22% of cases, patients attended in-network hospitals, but were treated by out-of-network physicians. We find that out-of-network billi...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Politics, hospital behaviour and health care spending

This paper examines the link between legislative politics, hospital behaviour, and health care spending. When trying to pass sweeping legislation, congressional leaders can attract votes by adding targeted provisions tha...Read more...

CEP election analysis

#GE2017Economists: The Research Evidence on Key Issues for Voters in the 2017 UK General Election

The unexpected UK general election of 2017 was intended to be all about Brexit, one that will give the incoming government a mandate to negotiate the terms of the UK?s exit from the European Union (EU). But many other pu...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Brexit as Climate Policy: The Agenda on Energy and the Environment

The Great Recession and a sluggish economic recovery were instrumental in meeting the legally binding climate change targets that the UK has set for itself. But without more drastic policy interventions, it is unlikely t...Read more...

CEP election analysis

The UK's New Industrial Strategy

`Industrial strategy? has returned to the policy agenda, with the government recently setting out its plans in a Green Paper, and dedicated sections appearing in the election manifestos of all three main parties. Until r...Read more...

CEP election analysis

The NHS and Social Care: Prospects for Funding, Staffing and Performance into the 2020s

Health featured prominently in the 2016 referendum on the UK?s membership of the European Union (EU), with the Leave campaign?s claim that Brexit would mean that #350 million extra money per week could be transferred fro...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Real Wages and Living Standards in the UK

Since the global financial crisis of 2007/08, workers? real wages and family living standards in the UK have suffered to an extent unprecedented in modern history. Real wages of the typical (median) worker have fallen by...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Where is the real Manifesto for Growth?

As voters go to the polls in a knife-edge election, Labour?s popularity on the NHS is counter-balanced by the Tory?s reputation for economic competence. But is this reputation deserved? John Van Reenen writes that a real...Read more...

CEP election analysis

#ElectionEconomics: The Research Evidence on Key Issues for Voters in the 2015 UK General Election

Please see the CEP #ElectionEconomics report(Paper 1)and the Executive Summary (Paper 2) that cover all the election 2015 briefings, discussing the research evidence on 15 of the UK's key policy battlegrounds: immigratio...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Health: How Will the NHS Fare in a Cold Climate?

With the NHS a central issue of the 2015 general election, the parties are debating funding, the form of provision, quality and productivity. This paper looks at the NHS record under the coalition government and consider...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Regarding public service spending, the UK electorate faces real choices this election

The possible spending plans of Labour and the Tories illustrate the fact that there are real choices to be made at the election, writes John Van Reenen. When viewed over the longer term, the state of the UK economy is no...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Should We Stay or Should We Go? The economic consequences of leaving the EU

We analyze the effects of Brexit on the UK economy. The most important economic consequence of Brexit would likely be reduced trade with EU countries. We consider an optimistic scenario with relatively small increases in...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Austerity in the UK: past, present and future

In this article, John Van Reenen looks at the UK?s economic performance since the global financial crisis and assesses the impact of austerity policies. He also examines the fiscal plans of the three major parties over t...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Austerity: Growth Costs and Post-Election Plans

The austerity programme of the coalition government knocked at least one percent per year off growth in the first two years of this Parliament. In retrospect, this looks like a mistake and the slower pace of austerity in...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Home computers and married women's labor supply

I consider how the availability of a personal computer at home changed employment for married women. I develop a theoretical model that motivates the empirical specifications. Using data from the U.S. CPS from 1984 to 20...Read more...

CEP US election analysis

Inequality and opportunity: the return of a neglected debate

During this election period many Americans are feeling angry towards the very rich, especially those working in the financial sector, who helped cause the Great Recession and yet were bailed out by the government. Increa...Read more...

CEP US election analysis

Healthcare Reform: The US Policy Debate

The ability of the next US president to rein in spending on healthcare and improve the productivity of the healthcare system is largely going to determine the country?s fiscal future. That is one of the conclusions of th...Read more...

CEP US election analysis

Economic Recovery and Policy Uncertainty

Until some political mechanism creates incentives to elect moderate representatives who can reach across the ideological divide, the US seems destined to heightened levels of policy uncertainty for many years to come. So...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Policy uncertainty: a new indicator

The damaging impact of economic uncertainty on growth has been reasonably well studied - but what happens when there is uncertainty about economic policy-making? Nicholas Bloom and colleagues have developed a measure of ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Political Competition, Policy and Growth: Theory and Evidence from the United States

This paper develops a simple model to analyze how a lack of political competition may lead to policies that hinder economic growth. We test the predictions of the model on panel data for the US states. In these data, we ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Revolving Door Lobbyists

Washington's 'revolving door' - the movement from government service into the lobbying industry- is regarded as a major concern for policy-making. We study how ex-government staffers benefit from the personal connections...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Multinationals and US Productivity Leadership: Evidence from Great Britain

We study the productivity of US owned plants in the UK. Using a new dataset that identifies foreign and domestic MNEs, we find that UK MNEs are less productive than US affiliates, but as productive as non US foreign affi...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Are European Labor Markets As Awful As All That?

?The standard explanation of why advanced Europe has generated less work per adult than the US is that something is seriously amiss with EU labor markets. The theme of this piece is simple. Compared to an ideal competiti...Read more...