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Worldview defence and self-determination theory explain the return of racial voting: evidence from the 2016 US election

Robert Breunig, Jan-Emmanuel De Neve and Mark Fabian


We use self-determination (SDT) and worldview defence theories (WDT) to explicate the psychological roots of identitarian voting in recent US, UK and EU elections. We test our theory using the 2016 US election as a case study, data from a representative sample of nearly half a million Americans, and a measure of racial animus derived from Google search data. We find that worry has a strong and significant positive association with Trump's vote share, as predicted by WDT. However, this is reversed in counties with high levels of relatedness - one of the three basic psychological needs emphasised by SDT. The positive relationship between racial animus and Trump also loses significance once an interaction between racial animus and relatedness is introduced. These results imply that identitarianism is driven at least in part by a desire for in-group affiliation emerging out of worldview defence and unmet basic psychological needs. A? 2022 The Authors. European Journal of Social Psychology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.


1 February 2023


European Journal of Social Psychology 53(1) , pp.147 - 166, 2023


DOI: 10.1002/ejsp.2894

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ejsp.2894

This Journal article is published under the centre's Community Wellbeing programme.