We develop a framework for comparing forecasts in teacher value-added models. We apply it to interpret the teacher-switching test of Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff (2014), showing that the teacher-switching coefficient cannot be mechanically interpreted as a test of forecast unbiasedness: the correct null may differ from one, and a coefficient of one is insufficient for forecast unbiasedness. We also analyze forecast choice for ranking teachers and estimating teachers? effects on long-term outcomes. Although forecasts including current-year data may contain contemporaneous classroom shocks, they contain more teacher signal than leave-year-out forecasts, which improves rankings and may increase precision in long-term-outcome regressions.

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28 September 2026     Paper Number CEPDP2214

Download PDF - Revisiting test score forecasts and teacher value-added

This CEP discussion paper is published under the centre's Education programme.