It is still unclear whether we are heading for a ‘hard’ or ‘soft’ Brexit but, amid calls for a second referendum, it is important that voters are told about the UK Government’s own estimates of the potential damage. Westminster’s decision to share its so-far confidential Brexit impact report with the Scottish Government is welcome, but it must also eventually come clean with the public. The reason for keeping the report’s conclusions secret – that it would result in “precipitating preemptive and reactionary assumptions” that would damage the economy – hardly inspires confidence. Neither does an estimate by the respected London School of Economics, which found Scotland’s output could fall by £30 billion over five years if there is no trade deal with the EU.

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