Results

CentrePiece article

Remembering our friend and colleague David Metcalf

A widely-admired economist whose work on labour markets led to a number of high-profile roles in public life...Read more...

Journal article

American Economic Review:

Leaders in social movements: evidence from unions in Myanmar

Social movements are catalysts for crucial institutional changes. To succeed, they must coordinate members' views (consensus building) and actions (mobilization). We study union leaders within Myanmar's burgeoning labor ...Read more...

Government consultation

Commons Home Affairs Committee

Alan Manning gave evidence to the Commons Home Affairs committee on its recent immigration proposals. As part of its strategy to reduce net migration, the Government has set out plans to make major changes to the eligibi...Read more...

Government consultation

Lords Justice and Home Affairs Committee

Alan Manning gave evidence to the Lords' Justice and Home Affairs Committee....Read more...

CentrePiece article

Return innovation: how migration shapes diffusion of new technologies

Novel products, processes and technologies are important drivers of economic growth. Davide Coluccia and Gaia Dossi show how migrants from Britain to the United States in the late 19th and early 20th century not only too...Read more...

Blog

LSE Politics and Policy:

Why the social care visa had to go

One of the changes to the UK work migration regime announced in this week's White Paper was that care workers could no longer be hired directly from abroad. To some this return to the pre-2021 system was an act of econom...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Migration and innovation: the impact of East German investors on West Germany's technological development

We investigate the causal relationship between inventor migration and regional innovation in the context of the large-scale migration shock from East to West Germany between World War II and the construction of the Berli...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Return innovation: the knowledge spillovers of the British migration to the United States, 1870-1940

This paper documents that out-migration promotes the diffusion of innovation from the country of destination to the country of origin of migrants. Between 1870 and 1940, nearly four million British immigrants settled in ...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Perspectives:

A practical guide to shift-share instruments

A recent econometric literature shows two distinct paths for identification with shift-share instruments, leveraging either many exogenous shifts or exogenous shares. We present the core logic of both paths and practical...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Only human? Immigration and firm productivity in Britain

This paper estimates the impact of migration on productivity by estimating production functions for British firms. We find that much of the apparent higher productivity of migrants is the result of sorting across areas, ...Read more...

Journal article

PNAS:

How working from home reshapes cities

In recent decades, economic activity has become increasingly concentrated in major global metropolises. Yet, the rise of working from home threatens this dominance of cities. Using multiple high-frequency datasets on spe...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

US electoral impact of remote work and inter-state migration

Remote work and geographic mobility have surged in the US since 2020. This column examines trends for both and discusses the potential electoral implications. The authors find that remote work opportunities are dispropor...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The wage of temporary agency workers

Using French administrative data, we estimate the wage gap distribution between in-house and temporary agency workers working in the same establishment and the same occupation. The average wage gap is about 3%, but the g...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

Ideas for the UK: election economics international week

What is the right level of migration for the UK? Is the country on track to meet its commitments on tackling climate change? And how will big changes in the world trading environment affect the economy? Our fourth electi...Read more...

Journal article

AEA Papers and Proceedings:

The linear algebra of economic geography models

We provide sufficient statistics for nominal and real wage exposure to productivity shocks in a constant elasticity economic geography model. These exposure measures summarize the first-order general equilibrium elastici...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Immigration and political realignment

This paper examines how immigration reshapes political landscapes, centring on the influx of immigrants from the EU's 2004 enlargement and its implications for the UK. I use a new variation in exposure to immigration bas...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Should I stay or should I go? Return migration from the United States

Return migration is important, but how many migrants leave and who is poorly understood. This paper proposes a new method for estimating return migration rates using aggregated repeated cross-sectional data, treating the...Read more...

Journal article

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy :

Local retail prices, product variety, and neighborhood change

We study how local grocery markets within a city are affected by changes in housing markets. Our empirical strategy exploits a shift in the spatial distribution of construction activity induced by a large-scale, place-ba...Read more...

CVER Research Paper

Immigration and vocational training: Evidence from England

Firms have two ways to ensure access to a skilled workforce: they can train their employees to the required level of skill or they can hire workers who are already skilled. Training is costly and an increase in the avail...Read more...

CEP occasional paper

Projecting UK net migration

Predicting migration is notoriously difficult but unavoidable if, for example, we want projections of future population. We present a new 'bottom-up' approach to projecting net migration, whereby emigration is estimated ...Read more...

CEP occasional paper

The linear algebra of economic geography models

We provide sufficient statistics for nominal and real wage exposure to productivity shocks in a constant elasticity economic geography model. These exposure measures summarize the first-order general equilibrium elastici...Read more...

Journal article

AEA Papers and Proceedings:

The local labor market effects of modern manufacturing capital: evidence from France

Using an event study methodology and comprehensive micro data from the French manufacturing sector, we analyze the local labor market effects of investments in modern manufacturing capital, including modern automation te...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of the European Economic Association:

City of dreams

Bigger cities offer more valuable experiences and opportunities in exchange for higher housing costs. While higher-ability workers benefit more from bigger cities, they are not more likely to move to one. Our model of ur...Read more...

Journal article

Econometrica:

Dynamic spatial general equilibrium

We incorporate forward-looking capital accumulation into a dynamic discrete choice model of migration. We characterize the steady-state equilibrium; generalize existing dynamic exact-hat algebra techniques to incorporate...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of the European Economic Association :

Talents and cultures: immigrant inventors and ethnic diversity in the age of mass migration

We investigate the importance of co-ethnic networks and diversity in determining immigrant inventors' settlements in the United States by following the location choices of thousands of them across counties during the Age...Read more...

Journal article

Oxford Economic Papers:

Household inequality and remittances in rural Thailand: a life-cycle perspective

This article studies the dynamics of income inequality among a panel of rural households in Thailand. In contrast to the many cross-section studies of income inequality, the article exploits a long panel data set to exam...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Income and the desire to migrate

We analyse the role of household and country-level personal income in explaining both the desire to emigrate and the desired destination country. We use data from the Gallup World Poll and applications to the US Diversit...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The donut effect of Covid-19 on cities

Using data from the US Postal Service and Zillow, we quantify the effect of Covid-19 on migration patterns and real estate markets within and across US cities. We find two key results. First, within large US cities, hous...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Dynamic spatial general equilibrium

We develop a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model with forward-looking investment and migration decisions. We characterize analytically the transition path of the spatial distribution of economic activity in respons...Read more...

Journal article

Economics Letters:

Gravity model estimates of the spatial determinants of trade, migration, and trade-and-migration policies

Using a gravity model, we explore the effects of distance and borders on trade, migration, and trade-and-migration policies and document three key differences between trade and migration patterns in otherwise equivalent ...Read more...

Blog

VoxEU:

The differing effects of globalisation on trade versus migration

Better communications, enhanced transport links, integration agreements between governments, and other factors have all helped increase global economic interconnectedness over the past few decades. This column compares a...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Geography:

Local economic conditions and the nature of new housing supply

We explore the effects of local economic conditions on the type and size of newly constructed housing units in a city. Exploiting the 1984?2004 metro area samples of the American Housing Survey and US Census building per...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Quality of life in a dynamic spatial model

We develop a dynamic spatial model in which heterogeneous workers are imperfectly mobile and forward-looking and yet all structural fundamentals can be inverted without assuming that the economy is in a stationary spatia...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Immigrant inventors and diversity in the age of mass migration

A possible unintended but damaging consequence of anti-immigrant rhetoric, and the policies it inspires, is that they may put high-skilled immigrants off more than low-skilled ones at times when countries and businesses ...Read more...

Journal article

World Bank Economic Review:

Migration and urbanization in post-apartheid South Africa

Although Africa has experienced rapid urbanization in recent decades, little is known about the process of urbanization across the continent. This paper exploits a natural experiment, the abolition of South African pass ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Monopsony and the wage effects of migration

In a generalization of the well-known ?immigration surplus? result, we show immigration must always increase the average native worker?s marginal product, in any long-run constant returns economy. But in a monopsonistic ...Read more...

Blog

LSE Brexit:

Immigration is no longer the most pressing concern among the electorate

Immigration is no longer the most pressing concern among the electorate going into this election that it was prior to the Brexit referendum, writes Jonathan Wadsworth (LSE). More than three years on, concerns about Europ...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Residential mobility in the UK: how distance and local economic conditions drive residential choices

Monica Langella and Alan Manning find that high unemployment in an area induces people to move away, and has an even stronger effect on the attractiveness of that area to potential movers. They also find that younger and...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics:

Measuring urban economic density

At the heart of urban economics are agglomeration economies, which drive the existence and extent of cities. This paper estimates urban agglomeration effects, exploring simple and very nuanced measures of economic densit...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Commuting, migration and local joblessness

Britain suffers from persistent spatial disparities in employment rates. This paper develops an integrated framework for analyzing two forces expected to equalize economic opportunity across areas: commuting and migratio...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The contribution of foreign migration to local labor market adjustment

The US suffers from large regional disparities in employment rates which have persisted for many decades. It has been argued that foreign migration offers a remedy: it ?greases the wheels? of the labor market by accelera...Read more...

Journal article

American Economic Review:

The persistence of local joblessness

Differences in employment-population ratios across US commuting zones have persisted for many decades. We claim these disparities represent real gaps in economic opportunity for individuals of fixed characteristics. Thes...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Geography:

Intended versus unintended consequences of migration restriction policies: evidence from a natural experiment in Indonesia

This article studies the consequences of restrictions to migration at the origin on labor market outcomes and school enrolment in origin communities. Our difference-indifferences specification exploits the differential i...Read more...

External report

World Happiness Report 2018

The World Happiness Report is a landmark survey of the state of global happiness. The World Happiness Report 2018, ranks 156 countries by their happiness levels, and 117 countries by the happiness of their immigrants. Th...Read more...

Journal article

American Economic Review:

How local are labor markets? Evidence from a spatial job search model

This paper models the optimal search strategies of the unemployed across space to characterize local labor markets. Our methodology allows for linkages between numerous areas, while preserving tractability. We estimate t...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Who voted for Brexit? A comprehensive district-level analysis

On 23 June 2016, the British electorate voted to leave the European Union. We analyse vote and turnout shares across 380 local authority areas in the United Kingdom. We find that exposure to the EU in terms of immigratio...Read more...

CentrePiece article

A shortage of nurses?

The government?s Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) has reluctantly recommended that nurses remain on the `shortage occupation list?, while criticising the health sector for failing to maintain a sufficient supply of UK ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Commuting, migration and local employment elasticities

Many changes in the economic environment are local, including policy changes and infrastructure investments. The effect of these changes depends crucially on the ability of factors to move in response. Therefore a key ob...Read more...

Journal article

The Economic Journal:

Immigration, housing discrimination and employment

We use a new data set on Italy and a novel identification strategy to analyse the relationship between migrants' employment status and the percentage of non-Italians living nearby. Our data contain information at the ver...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Are People Moving Home Less? An Analysis of Address Changing in England and Wales, 1971-2011, Using the ONS Longitudinal Study

Expectations of migration and mobility steadily increasing in the longer term, which have a long currency in migration theory and related social science, are at odds with the latest US research showing a marked decline i...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Is Internal Migration Slowing? An Analysis of Four Decades of NHSCR Records for England and Wales

This paper is prompted by the widespread acceptance that the rates of inter-county and inter-state migration have been falling in the USA and sets itself the task of examining whether this decline in migration intensitie...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The persistence of local joblessness

Local differences in US employment-population ratios and unemployment rates have persisted over many decades. Using decennial census data from 1950-2010, we investigate the reasons for this. The persistence cannot be exp...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Moving People with Ideas - Innovation, Inter-regional Mobility and Firm Heterogeneity

This paper looks at the link between inter-regional mobility, innovation and firms? behavioural heterogeneity in their reliance on localised external sources of knowledge. By linking patent data (capturing inventors? int...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Why are higher skilled workers more mobile geographically? The role of the job surplus

The skill gap in geographical mobility is entirely driven by workers who report moving for a new job. A natural explanation lies in the large expected surplus accruing to skilled job matches. Just as large surpluses ease...Read more...

CentrePiece article

The `investor route? to UK citizenship

Simple reforms to the `investor route? system whereby wealthy foreigners can get permanent residence in the UK would benefit current residents and signal that the country is open. That?s the view of Sir David Metcalf, ch...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Local Economic Conditions and the Nature of New Housing Supply

We present a modified open monocentric city model that assumes that land is available for conversion into new housing throughout the city. The model predicts that positive local income shocks (i) increase the city?s shar...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Cultural Diversity, Cities and Innovation: firm Effects or City Effects?

Growing cultural diversity is seen as important for innovation. Research has focused on two potential mechanisms: a firm effect, with diversity at the firm level improving knowledge sourcing or ideas generation, and a ci...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Urban Escalators and Inter-regional Elevators: The Difference that Location, Mobility and Sectoral Specialisation make to Occupational Progression

This paper uses evidence from the (British) Longitudinal Study to examine the influence on occupational advancement of the city-region of residence (an escalator effect) and of relocation between city-regions (an elevato...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Top Team Demographics, Innovation and Business Performance: Findings from English Firms and Cities 2008-9

High levels of net migration to the UK have contributed to growing cultural diversity, and researchers are turning their attention to the long-term effects of diversity on productivity. Yet little is known about these is...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Immigration and the UK labour market

David Metcalf, chair of the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), outlines recent changes in the regulatory framework for immigrant workers....Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Ambition, Human Capital Acquisition and the Metropolitan Escalator

This paper examines the relation between ambition, as a form of dynamic human capital, and the escalator role of high order metropolitan regions, as originally identified by Fielding (1989). It argues that occupational p...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Accounting for Big City Growth in Low Paid Occupations: Immigration and/or Service Class Consumption

Growth of 'global cities' in the 1980s was supposed to have involved an occupational polarisation, including growth of low paid service jobs. Though held to be untrue for European cities, at the time, some such growth di...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Why Are Migrants Paid More?

In efficient global labour markets for very high wage workers one might expect wage differentials between migrant and domestic workers to reflect differences in labour productivity. However, using panel data on worker-fi...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Flexible Employment and Cross-Regional Adjustment

Employment flexibility is commonly associated to greater labour mobility and thus faster cross-regional adjustments. The literature however offers very little hard evidence on this and quite limited theoretical guidance....Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Does Skilled Migration Foster Innovative Performance? Evidence from British Local Areas

What is the effect of an increase in the stock of human capital on the innovative performance of a local economy? This paper tests the hypothesis of a causal link between an increase in the average stock of human capital...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Agglomeration in the Periphery

i. This discussion paper is a completely revised version of SERCDP0047, published April 2010....Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Does Cultural Diversity Help Innovation in Cities: Evidence from London Firms

London is one of the world?s major cities, and one of its most diverse. London?s cultural diversity is widely seen as a social asset, but there is little hard evidence on its importance for the city?s businesses. Theory ...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Economics of Super-Diversity: Findings from British Cities, 2001-2006

British cities have a surprisingly long history of cultural diversity. Recently they have become significantly more multicultural, with `super-diversity? emerging in many urban neighbourhoods. Public interest in these ch...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Long Term Impacts of Migration in British Cities: Diversity, Wages, Employment and Prices

British cities are becoming more culturally diverse, with migration a main driver. Is this growing diversity good for urban economies? This paper explores, using a new 16-year panel of UK cities. Over time, net migration...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Self-Reinforcing Shocks: Evidence from a Resettlement Policy

i. A completely revised version of this paper is available as SERCDP0080, May 2011....Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Networks in the Premodern Economy: the Market for London Apprenticeships, 1600-1749

This paper examines the importance of social and geographical networks in structuring entry into skilled occupations in premodern London. Using newly digitised records of those beginning an apprenticeship in London betwe...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Long-Term Effects of Forced Migration

We study the long-term effects of human displacement using individual level panel data on forced migrants and comparable non-migrants. After World War II, Finland ceded a tenth of its territory to the Soviet Union and re...Read more...

CEE/Education and skills discussion paper

Access, Choice and Participation in Higher Education

Geographical distance between parental home and college poses a potential barrier to higher education entry, and could be a deciding factor when choosing between institutions. Some students may be constrained in their ed...Read more...

CEP occasional paper

Assimilation of migrants into the British labour market

This paper discusses the extent to which migrants to Britain have been assimilated into the workforce. Migration into Britain has increased over the last 25 years, with a big increase in inflows in recent years. The pape...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Conflict-Induced Displacement and Labour Market Outcomes: Evidence from Post-War Bosnia and Herzegovina

This study uses a longitudinal data source to study the effects of conflict-induced displacement on labour market outcomes for Bosnians in post-war Bosnia and Herzegovina. To account for endogeneity in the displacement s...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The Returns to Temporary Migration to the United States: Evidence from the Mexican Urban Employment Survey

Mexican migration to the United States has been a very important issue throughout the twentieth century, and its relevance has reached unprecedented levels during the last two decades. Even though there is a huge body of...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Offshoring: General Equilibrium Effects on Wages, Production and Trade

A simple model of offshoring is used to integrate the complex gallery of results that exist in the theoretical offshoring/fragmentation literature. The paper depicts offshoring as `shadow migration? and shows that this a...Read more...

Manpower Human Resource Lab paper

Temporary Agency Workers and Workplace Performance in the Private Sector

Using nationally representative workplace data we identify the correlates of temporary agency working (TAW) in the private sector in Britain and its association with workplace labour productivity and financial performanc...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Immigrants at Retirement: Stay/Return or 'Va-et-Vient'

where labour considerations no longer matter, the location decisions are expected to depend not only on a comparison of standard-of-living between the origin and host countries, but should also be affected by the strengt...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The Self Selection of Migrant Workers Revisited

Work of low-skilled migrant workers from developing countries in developed economies is a growing phenomenon and a key political and economic issue. An extensive literature has found (for the most part) that these worker...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Short Job Tenures and Firing Taxes in the Search Theory of Unemployment

This paper studies the effects of firing taxes on the job destruction rate, when probation period - or temporary contract - policies are implemented in an otherwise exogenous job separation search model. It is shown that...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Is the Medical Brain Drain Beneficial? Evidence from Overseas Doctors in the UK

The ?beneficial brain drain? hypothesis suggests that skilled migration can be good for a sending country because the incentives it creates for training increase that country?s supply of skilled labour. To work, this hyp...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Self-Selection and the Performance of Return Migrants: the Source Country Perspective.

In this paper, using the framework of a Roy theoretical model, we examine the performance of return migrants in Albania. We ask two main questions: (i) Had they chosen not to migrate, what would be the performance of ret...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Workers' Transitions from Temporary to Permanent Employment: the Spanish Case

This paper studies the duration pattern of fixed-term contracts and the determinants of the transformation of these into permanent ones. To address this issue we estimate a duration model for temporary employment, with c...Read more...