Predicting migration is notoriously difficult but unavoidable if, for example, we want projections of future population. We present a new 'bottom-up' approach to projecting net migration, whereby emigration is estimated separately for each migrant category as a function of past immigration levels and the length of stay of migrants. This approach is applied to the UK context to project net migration to 2030. Based on the assumptions that (i) roughly current immigration levels continue, where this is plausible; and (ii) migrants stay in the UK at the same rate that Migrant Journey data has suggested they have done in the past, the model suggests that net migration will fall over the coming years. The largest part of this fall is due to emigration rising: high immigration today leads to higher emigration in future and hence a mechanical decline in net migration.

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16 October 2023     Paper Number CEPOP60

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This CEP occasional paper is published under the centre's Labour programme.