Results

CEP discussion paper

What happens in Paris, does not stay in Paris: trade fairs and search and matching frictions

Search and matching frictions keep firms from forming international trade links. Trade fairs are a common, often subsidized remedy, yet causal evidence is scarce. We study Hungarian firms at the 1900 Paris World Exhibiti...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Empirical welfare analysis with hedonic budget constraints

We analyze demand settings where heterogeneous consumers maximize utility for product attributes subject to a nonlinear budget constraint. We develop nonparametric methods for welfare-analysis of interventions that chang...Read more...

Journal article

Review of Economics and Statistics:

Trade, gravity and aggregation

Gravity equations are an important tool in empirical international trade research. We study to what extent sector-level parameters can be recovered from aggregate gravity equations estimated via Poisson pseudo maximum li...Read more...

Journal article

AEA Papers and Proceedings :

Negative weights are no concern in design-based specifications

Recent work shows that popular partially linear regression specifications can put negative weights on some treatment effects, potentially producing incorrectly signed estimands. We show that this is not an issue in desig...Read more...

Journal article

Annual Review of Economics:

Labor market insurance policies in the Twenty-First Century

The COVID-19 crisis was a stress test for unemployment insurance schemes as it involved a sudden and unexpected shutdown of a very large set of activities. This forced countries to introduce, often from scratch, income s...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Labor market insurance policies in the XXI century

The recovery from the Covid-19 crisis will force governments to accelerate transformation in their menu of labor market policy tools. The crisis was a stress test for unemployment insurance schemes as it involved a sudde...Read more...

Journal article

The Economic Journal:

Gravity and heterogeneous trade cost elasticities

How do trade costs affect international trade? This paper offers a new approach. We rely on a flexible gravity equation that predicts variable trade cost elasticities, both across and within country pairs. We apply this ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Trade, gravity and aggregation

Gravity regressions are a common tool in the empirical international trade literature and serve an important function for many policy purposes. We study to what extent micro-level parameters can be recovered from gravity...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Gravity with granularity

We evaluate the consequences of oligopolistic behavior for the estimation of gravity equations for trade flows. With oligopolistic competition, firm-level gravity equations based on a standard CES demand framework need t...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Globalisation and pandemics: surprising interactions

Pandemics are only possible because of international travel. But perhaps surprisingly, in the absence of social distancing, a more globalised country will not necessarily suffer a worse outbreak. Pol Antras, Stephen Redd...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Globalization and pandemics

We develop a model of human interaction to analyze the relationship between globalization and pandemics. Our framework provides joint microfoundations for the gravity equation for international trade and the Susceptible-...Read more...

Journal article

European Economic Review:

All these worlds are yours, except India: the effectiveness of cash subsidies to export in Nepal

This paper studies the impact of a `textbook? ad-valorem export subsidy on firm-level export performance. The Cash Incentive Scheme for Exports (CISE) program offered by the government of Nepal offers a cash subsidy to f...Read more...

Journal article

World Economy:

The not-so-generalised effects of the Generalized System of Preferences

We use an empirical gravity equation to study how non-reciprocal trade preferences (NRTPs), enacted mainly through the Generalized System of Preferences, affect the exports of the beneficiary nations. In line with existi...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

All these worlds are yours, except India: the effectiveness of cash subsidies to export in Nepal

This paper studies the impact of a `textbook' ad-valorem export subsidy on firm-level export performance. The Cash Incentive Scheme for Exports (CISE) program offered by the government of Nepal offers a cash subsidy to f...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Aggregation and the gravity equation

One of the most successful empirical relationships in international trade is the gravity equation, which relates bilateral trade flows between an origin and destination to bilateral trade frictions, origin characteristic...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The not-so-generalized effects of the generalized system of preferences

We use an empirical gravity equation approach to study how nonreciprocal trade preferences (NRTPs), enacted mainly through the Generalized System of Preferences, affect the exports of the beneficiary nations. In line wit...Read more...

Journal article

Review of International Economics:

The geometry of the distance coefficient in gravity equations in international trade

Gravity equations in trade imply that trade flows are proportional to the size of a country and inversely proportional to distance. This paper develops the analogy of gravity in physics with gravity in trade and provides...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Do Homeowners Benefit Urban Neighborhoods? Evidence from Housing Prices

Homeownership is heavily subsidized in many countries mainly through the tax code. The adverse effects of lenient tax treatment of owner-occupied housing on economic efficiency and growth are large and well documented in...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

If We Build, Will They Pay? Predicting Property Price Effects of Transport Innovations

In this study I develop a partial equilibrium approach for the prediction of property price effects of transport network extensions. It combines a gravity-type labor market accessibility indicator with a transport decisi...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Trade, Wages and Productivity

We develop a new general equilibrium model of monopolistic competition with heterogeneous firms, variable demand elasticity and multiple asymmetric regions, in which trade integration induces wage and productivity change...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Trade, Wages and Productivity

We develop a new general equilibrium model of monopolistic competition with heterogeneous firms, variable demand elasticity and multiple asymmetric regions, in which trade integration induces wage and productivity change...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Trading Partners and Trading Volumes: Implementing the Helpman-Melitz-Rubinstein Model Empirically

Helpman, Melitz, and Rubinstein (2008)?HMR?present a rich theoretical model to study the determinants of bilateral trade flows across countries. The model is then empirically implemented through a two-stage estimation pr...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Further Simulation Evidence on the Performance of the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimator

We extend the simulation results given in Santos-Silva and Tenreyro (2006, `The Log of Gravity?, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 88, pp.641-658) by considering data generated as a finite mixture of gamma variates...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

On the Existence of the Maximum Likelihood Estimates for Poisson Regression

We note that the existence of the maximum likelihood estimates for Poisson regression depends on the data configuration. Because standard software does not check for this problem, the practitioner may be surprised to fin...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Relative Factor Endowments and International Portfolio Choice

This paper presents a model of international portfolio choice based on cross-country differences in relative factor abundance. Countries have varying degrees of similarity in their factor endowment ratios, and are subjec...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The Log of Gravity

Although economists have long been aware of Jensen's inequality, many econometric applications have neglected an important implication of it: the standard practice of interpreting the parameters of log-linearized models ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Mind the Gaps: the Evolution of Regional Inequalities in the UK, 1982-1997

In this paper we apply earnings equations for UK regions over 1982-1997. We find strong evidence of rapid convergence across regions regarding the determinants of individual wages (ie regional fixed-effects, gender gaps ...Read more...