Results

CEP discussion paper

Teachers' leniency: experimental evidence

Two teachers grading the same student can reach very different conclusions? yet little is known about which teacher characteristics drive such disagreement. We investigate this question through a large-scale online exper...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The broken ladder: AI, remote work, and early-career hiring

Is generative AI replacing junior workers? A growing literature answers yes, citing large declines in early-career hiring concentrated in GenAI-exposed occupations. We argue that this verdict is premature because GenAI e...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Measuring systematic gaps in teacher judgement: a new approach

We propose a new approach to test for systematic biases in subjective evaluations. We exploit a setting where teachers were required to assign students both grades and rankings within each grade. Comparing students immed...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The lifecycle of judicial bias

How does judicial bias arise and persist in the legal system? We trace the lifecycle of judicial bias in India's criminal courts, leveraging the quasi-random assignment of judges to courts and cases. We first document su...Read more...

Journal article

Energy Economics:

Firm climate investment: a glass half-full

The green transition will require large investments from firms, yet little is known about the scale and drivers of climate-related capital expenditure across the UK economy. To address this gap, we draw on a large, repre...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of International Economics:

Paper tiger? Chinese science and home bias in citations

We investigate the phenomenon of home bias in scientific citations, where researchers disproportionately cite work from their own country. We develop a benchmark for expected citations based on the relative size of count...Read more...

Journal article

American Economic Review:

Fighting climate change: international attitudes toward climate policies

This paper explores global perceptions and understanding of climate change and policies, examining factors that influence support for climate action and the impact of different types of information. We conduct large-scal...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Advice to young women economists: learn to say no and protect your time

How are women making their mark in economics? To celebrate Women's History Month, Swati Dhingra shares her experiences, from India to British academia and the Bank of England. It took her a while to learn to say no and p...Read more...

Journal article

Small Business Economics :

Realizing expectations? High-impact entrepreneurship across countries

Comparative international entrepreneurship research has often used measures of high-growth expectations entrepreneurship to proxy for the construct of high-impact entrepreneurship. We revisit this practice by assessing t...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Paper tiger? Chinese science and home bias in citations

We investigate the phenomenon of home bias in scientific citations, where researchers disproportionately cite work from their own country. We develop a benchmark for expected citations based on the relative size of count...Read more...

Journal article

American Economic Review:

Five facts about MPCs: evidence from a randomized experiment

We present five facts from an experiment on the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of transitory transfers: (1) the one-month MPC on a cash-like transfer is 23 percent; (2) it is substantially higher (61 percent) o...Read more...

Journal article

Behavioural Public Policy:

Affective paternalism

Many decisions are curated, incentivised or nudged by a third party. Despite this, only a handful of studies have looked at paternalistic decision-makers and the psychological processes by which they arrive at their deci...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of the European Economic Association :

Formation of college plans: expected returns, preferences and adjustment process

We exploit a large exogenous shock to study the formation, and updating, of educational plans, and to examine how these plans ultimately impact later educational attainment. Using novel, longitudinal, microdata on cohort...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Firm inflation expectations in quantitative and text data

Inflation rates and short-term inflation expectations in the UK have increased significantly since 2021. This column uses quantitative and text data from the Decision Maker Panel to analyse the factors affecting inflatio...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Gender stereotypes in the family

We investigate gender-stereotyped beliefs about children's academic abilities among parents. Leveraging survey and school administrative data, we document that parents underestimate girls' mathematical skills and overest...Read more...

Journal article

NEJM Catalyst Innovations in Care Delivery:

How health care professionals view their organizations' governance and decision-making

A survey of the NEJM Catalyst Insights Council finds that health care organizations' strategic priorities have held steady - with even more emphasis on financial returns. Now including global data....Read more...

Journal article

Energy for Sustainable Development :

Assessing reliability of electricity grid services from space: the case of Uttar Pradesh, India

While most households around the world have access to electricity, the number of hours per day when the grid supplies them with adequate voltage can be low. Improving the reliability of electricity is crucial to make pro...Read more...

Blog

VoxEU:

Covid-19 uncertainty: a tale of two tails

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a massive spike in uncertainty. This column uses data from panel surveys of US and UK business executives to document how uncertainty over own-firm sales growth rates over the...Read more...

Journal article

International Economic Review:

Estimating border effects: the impact of spatial aggregation

Trade data are typically aggregated across space. In this article, we investigate the sensitivity of gravity estimation to spatial aggregation. We build a model in which micro regions are aggregated into macro regions. W...Read more...

Blog

VoxEU:

Covid-19 and structural change

Covid-19 has had a sizeable impact on where people work and how they shop. This column uses data from the Decision Maker Panel business survey of 3,000 UK firms to assess the longer-run impact. The pandemic is expected t...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

If you lie down with clones you will stagnate your career

We have a tendency to surround ourselves with and ask advice from people just like ourselves, putting us at risk of confirmation bias. When we want personal growth, Grace Lordan writes that we must think again about who ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Heterogeneity in criminal behaviour after child birth: the role of ethnicity

This paper documents behavioral differences in parental criminality between majority and minority ethnic groups after child birth. The particular effect we exploit is that of the gender of the first-born child on fathers...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

What?s in a name? Expectations, heuristics and choice during a period of radical school reform

Education policy worldwide has sought to incentivize school improvement and facilitate pupil-school matching by introducing reforms that promote autonomy and choice. Understanding the way in which families form preferenc...Read more...

Journal article

The Economic Journal:

My precious! The location and diffusion of scientific research: evidence from the synchrotron Diamond Light Source

We analyse the impact of the establishment of the Diamond Light Source synchrotron, a large basic scientific research facility in the UK, on the geographic distribution of related research. To account for the potentially...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics:

Political favoritism in China's capital markets and its effect on city sizes

This paper examines political favoritism of cites in national capital markets and the effect of that favoritism on city sizes. The paper estimates the city-by-city variation in the prices of capital across cities in Chin...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

A unified approach to estimating demand and welfare

The measurement of price changes, economic welfare, and demand parameters is currently based on three disjoint approaches: macroeconomic models derived from time-invariant utility functions, microeconomic estimation base...Read more...

Journal article

Psychological Science:

Models of affective decision making: how do feelings predict choice?

Intuitively, how you feel about potential outcomes will determine your decisions. Indeed, an implicit assumption in one of the most influential theories in psychology, prospect theory, is that feelings govern choice. Sur...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Estimating border effects: the impact of spatial aggregation

Trade data are typically reported at the level of regions or countries and are therefore aggregates across space. In this paper, we investigate the sensitivity of standard gravity estimation to spatial aggregation. We bu...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Models of affective decision-making: how do feelings predict choice?

Intuitively, how we feel about potential outcomes will determine our decisions. Indeed, one of the most influential theories in psychology, Prospect Theory, implicitly assumes that feelings govern choice. Surprisingly, h...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Risk and evidence of bias in randomized controlled trials in economics

The randomized controlled trial (RCT) has been a heavily utilized research tool in medicine for over 60 years. Since the early 2000?s, large-scale RCTs have been used in increasingly large numbers in the social sciences ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Estimating Bayesian decision problems with heterogeneous priors

In many areas of economics there is a growing interest in how expertise and preferences drive individual and group decision making under uncertainty. Increasingly, we wish to estimate such models to quantify which of the...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Decision-making and implementation in teams

We use a mechanism?design approach to study a team whose members choose a joint project and exert individual efforts to execute it. Members have private information about the qualities of alternative projects. Informatio...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Is the International Border Effect Larger than the Domestic Border Effect? Evidence from U.S. Trade

Many studies have found that international borders represent large barriers to trade. But how do international borders compare to domestic border barriers? We investigate international and domestic border barriers in a u...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

How Experts Decide: Identifying Preferences versus Signals from Policy Decisions

A large theoretical literature assumes that experts di ffer in terms of preferences and the distribution of their private signals, but the empirical literature to date has not separately identi ed them. This paper propos...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Autoregressions in Small Samples, Priors about Observables and Initial Conditions

We propose a benchmark prior for the estimation of vector autoregressions: a prior about initial growth rates of the modelled series. We first show that the Bayesian vs frequentist small sample bias controversy is driven...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

A Task-Based Approach to Organization: Knowledge, Communication and Structure

We bridge a gap between organizational economics and strategy research by developing a task-based approach to analyze organizational knowledge, process and structure, and deriving testable implications for the relation b...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Educational Returns, Ability Composition and Cohort Effects: Theory and Evidence for Cohorts of Early-Career UK Graduates

An increase over time in the proportion of young people obtaining a degree is likely to impact on the relative ability compositions (i) of graduates and non-graduates and (ii) across graduates with different classes of d...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Was Germany Ever United? Evidence from Intra- and International Trade 1885-1933

This paper asks whether Germany was ever an economically integrated area. I explore the geography of trade costs in a new data set of about 40,000 observations on regional trade flows within and across the borders of Ger...Read more...

CEE/Education and skills discussion paper

Returns to Apprenticeship Training in Austria: Evidence from Failed Firms

Little is known about the payoffs to apprenticeship training in the German speaking countries for the participants. OLS estimates suggest that the returns are similar to those of other types of schooling. However, there ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy

This paper analyses optimal monetary policy in response to shocks using a model that avoids making specific assumptions about the stickiness of prices, and thus the nature of the Phillips curve. Nonetheless, certain robu...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Is Distance Dying at Last? Falling Home Bias in Fixed Effects Models of Patent Citations

We examine the ?home bias? of international knowledge spillovers as measured by the speed of patent citations (i.e. knowledge spreads slowly over international boundaries). We present the first compelling econometric evi...Read more...