Results

Journal article

Journal of Political Economy:

The economic dynamics of city structure: evidence from Hiroshima's recovery

We provide new theory and evidence on the resilience of the internal city structure after a large shock by analyzing the atomic bombing of Hiroshima. Exploiting newly digitized data, we document that the city structure r...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Marshall at the times of Marshall

In the late nineteenth century, Alfred Marshall identified three micro-foundations of agglomeration economies: labour pooling (LP), input sharing (IO), and knowledge spillovers (KS). An extensive literature has tested th...Read more...

Journal article

Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers:

Finding stars: mapping the geography of the world's scientific elites

This paper presents the first systematic city-level mapping of global scientific talent, analysing the top 200,000 star scientists across 3635 cities worldwide annually between 2019 and 2023. We use a novel Knowledge Gen...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Hiroshima: urban resilience after the atomic bomb

Why the city centre re-emerged from destruction....Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Hiroshima: Resilience of city structure after the atomic bombing

Cities have faced a host of shocks throughout history, including earthquakes, hurricanes, coastal flooding, and storm surges, as well as wartime destruction, such as in the current Russia-Ukraine conflict. This column lo...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Location choice when the number of jobs matters: matching in spatial equilibrium

The idea that people want to go to where the jobs are is intuitive yet is absent from the standard quantitative spatial modelling approach in which location choices are guided by prices, without reference to quantities (...Read more...

Blog

What works centre for local economic growth:

Thinking through multipliers: small numbers, big value

Last week we held the second in our current series of breakfast briefing webinars - Thinking through multipliers: Learning from BBC relocation. The event focused on what multipliers are and why local growth policymakers ...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Geography:

On the productivity advantage of cities

Agglomeration externalities are the key factor explaining the existence of cities and their size. However, while the various micro foundations of agglomeration externalities stress the importance of total factor producti...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Sports Economics:

Was Covid-19 a game changer for the Tokyo and Beijing Olympics?

No, it was not. We do not find evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic affected the distribution of medals in a systematic way. Countries that suffered a higher share of deaths due to the pandemic, or that imposed stricter l...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Identifying agglomeration shadows: long-run evidence from ancient ports

We examine "agglomeration shadows" that emerge around large cities, which discourage some economic activities in nearby areas. Identifying agglomeration shadows is complicated, however, by endogenous city formation and "...Read more...

Journal article

AEA Papers and Proceedings :

Negative weights are no concern in design-based specifications

Recent work shows that popular partially linear regression specifications can put negative weights on some treatment effects, potentially producing incorrectly signed estimands. We show that this is not an issue in desig...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The economic dynamics of city structure: evidence from Hiroshima's recovery

We provide new theory and evidence on the resilience of the internal city structure after a large shock by analyzing the atomic bombing of Hiroshima. Exploiting newly digitized data, we document that the city structure r...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Neighborhood effects: evidence from wartime destruction in London

We use the German bombing of London during the Second World War as an exogenous source of variation to provide evidence on neighborhood effects. We construct a newly-digitized dataset at the level of individual buildings...Read more...

Journal article

European Economic Review:

Remote talks: changes to economics seminars during Covid-19

This paper analyzes the consequences of the change in the presentation mode of economics seminars triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. The composition of seminar speakers changed significantly. The share of seminars held ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Urban-biased structural change

Using firm-level data from France, we document that the shift of economic activity from manufacturing to services over the last few decades has been urban-biased: structural change has been more pronounced in areas with ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The spillover effect of services offshoring on local labour markets

I provide new empirical evidence on the direct and indirect impact of services off-shoring on local employment and wages, using a unique dataset on firms in the UK for the period 2000-2015. Exploiting variation in firms'...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Consumption access and agglomeration: evidence from smartphone data

We provide new theory and evidence on the role of consumption access in understanding the agglomeration of economic activity. We combine smartphone data that records user location every 5 minutes of the day with economic...Read more...

Journal article

The Quarterly Journal of Economics:

The making of the modern metropolis: evidence from London

Using newly constructed spatially disaggregated data for London from 1801 to 1921, we show that the invention of the steam railway led to the first large-scale separation of workplace and residence. We show that a class ...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Geography:

Tales of the city: what do agglomeration cases tell us about agglomeration in general?

This article considers the heterogeneous microfoundations of agglomeration economies. It studies the co-location of industries to look for evidence of labour pooling, input sharing and knowledge spillovers. The novel con...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

On the productivity advantage of cities

Ever since Marshall (1890) agglomeration externalities have been viewed as the key factor explaining the existence of cities and their size. However, while the various micro foundations of agglomeration externalities str...Read more...

CentrePiece article

TV superstars: how a new technology disrupted the entertainment industry

The rollout of television to virtually every household in the United States in the mid-twentieth century created a potentially huge audience for people working in the entertainment industry. As Felix Koenig explains, thi...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Technical change and superstar effects: evidence from the roll-out of television

Technical change that improves economies of scale can generate fast income growth among top earners at the expense of everyone else. I test this classic ?superstar model? in the labor market for entertainers where the hi...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

When income effects are large: labor supply responses and the value of welfare transfers

I estimate the long-run income effect of welfare transfers on individual labor supply. Using Italian administrative data on the universe of survivor insurance recipients, I implement a regression discontinuity design aro...Read more...

Journal article

Economics of Transportation:

Quantifying wider economic impacts of agglomeration for transport appraisal: existing evidence and future directions

The Authors This paper is concerned with the Wider Economic Impacts (WEIs) of transport improvements that arise via scale economies of agglomeration. It reviews the background theory and empirical evidence on agglomerati...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Urban Economics:

Measuring urban economic density

At the heart of urban economics are agglomeration economies, which drive the existence and extent of cities. This paper estimates urban agglomeration effects, exploring simple and very nuanced measures of economic densit...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Tales of the city: what do agglomeration cases tell us about agglomeration in general?

This paper considers the heterogeneous microfoundations of agglomeration economies. It studies the co-location of industries to look for evidence of labor pooling, input sharing, and knowledge spillovers. The novel contr...Read more...

CentrePiece article

The making of the modern metropolis: evidence from London

Stephen Redding and colleagues examine how the introduction of steam railways shaped the emerging metropolitan area of London....Read more...

CentrePiece article

In brief... What the Berlin Wall can teach us about urban development

Award-winning CEP research considers what can be learned from the division and reunification of Berlin....Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The making of the modern metropolis: evidence from London

Modern metropolitan areas involve large concentrations of economic activity and the transport of millions of people each day between their residence and workplace. We use the revolution in transport technology from the i...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Quantifying wider economic impacts of agglomeration for transport appraisal: existing evidence and future directions

This paper is concerned with the Wider Economic Impacts (WEIs) of transport improvements that arise via scale economies of agglomeration. It reviews the background theory and empirical evidence on agglomeration, explains...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The billion pound drop: the blitz and agglomeration economies in London

This paper exploits locally exogenous variation in the location of bombs dropped during the Blitz to quantify the effect of density restrictions on agglomeration economies in London: an elite global city. Employing micro...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Geography:

From periphery to core: measuring agglomeration effects using high-speed rail

We analyze the economic impact of the German high-speed rail (HSR) connecting Cologne and Frankfurt, which provides plausibly exogenous variation in access to surrounding economic mass. We find a causal effect of about 8...Read more...

Journal article

Annual Review of Economics:

Quantitative spatial economics

The observed uneven distribution of economic activity across space is influenced by variation in exogenous geographical characteristics and endogenous interactions between agents in goods and factor markets. Until the pa...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Geography:

Agglomeration externalities and urban growth controls

How can land use policy enhance the exploitation of external urban agglomeration economies? In a system of heterogeneous cities, we show that the second-best land use policy constrains city creation, while subsidizing (t...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Stimulative Effect of an Unconditional Block Grant on the Decentralized Provision of Care

Understanding the impact of central government grants on decentralized health care provision is of crucial importance for the design of grant systems, yet empirical evidence on the prevalence of flypaper effects in this ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Quantitative spatial economics

The observed uneven distribution of economic activity across space is influenced by variation in exogenous geographical characteristics and endogenous interactions between agents in goods and factor markets. Until recent...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of International Economics:

The price of development: The Penn?Balassa?Samuelson effect revisited

The Penn?Balassa?Samuelson effect is the stylized fact about the positive correlation between cross-country price level and per-capita income. This paper provides evidence that the price?income relation is actually non-l...Read more...

Journal article

Regional Science and Urban Economics:

Local agglomeration, entrepreneurship and the 2008 recession: evidence from Italian industrial districts

We investigate whether the impact of recessions on entrepreneurship is affected by the presence of industrial districts, a source of local agglomeration economies. Using Italian Labour Force quarterly data from 2006 to 2...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Political Economy:

Carbon taxes, path dependency, and directed technical change: evidence from the auto industry

Can directed technical change be used to combat climate change? We construct new firm-level panel data on auto industry innovation distinguishing between ?dirty? (internal combustion engine) and ?clean? (e.g., electric, ...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Policy Paper

Powerhouse of Cards? Understanding the 'Northern Powerhouse'

The `Northern Powerhouse? is the UK government?s latest attempt to reduce regional disparities. By bringing together the cluster of cities in the North of England, the aim is to create an agglomeration with the scale to ...Read more...

Journal article

The Economic Journal:

Evaluating a decade of mobile termination rate regulation

We re-consider the impact that regulation of call termination on mobile phones has had on mobile customers' bills. Using a large panel covering 27 countries, we find that the 'waterbed' phenomenon, initially observed unt...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Big Plant Closures and Agglomeration Economies

This paper analyses the effects of large manufacturing plant closures on local employment. Specifically, we estimate the net employment effects of the closure of 45 large manufacturing plants in Spain, which relocated ab...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

What Makes Cities More Productive? Agglomeration Economies and the Role of Urban Governance: Evidence from 5 OECD Countries

This paper estimates agglomeration benefits across five OECD countries, and represents the first empirical analysis that combines evidence on agglomeration benefits and the productivity impact of metropolitan governance ...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

From Periphery to Core: Measuring Agglomeration Effects Using High-Speed Rail

We analyze the economic impact of the German high-speed rail (HSR) connecting Cologne and Frankfurt, which provides plausibly exogenous variation in access to surrounding economic mass. We find a causal effect of about 8...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

City of dreams

Higher ability workers benefit more from bigger cities while housing costs there are higher for everyone, and yet there is little sorting on ability. A possible explanation is that young individuals have an imperfect ass...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Spatial Methods

This paper is concerned with methods for analysing spatial data. After initial discussion on the nature of spatial data, including the concept of randomness, we focus most of our attention on linear regression models tha...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Evaluating a decade of mobile termination rate regulation

We re-consider the impact that regulation of call termination on mobile phones has had on mobile customers? bills. Using a large panel covering 27 countries, we find that the ?waterbed? phenomenon, initially observed unt...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Heterogeneous Agglomeration

Many prior treatments of agglomeration either explicitly or implicitly suppose that all industries agglomerate for the same reasons, with traditional Marshallian (1890) factors affecting all industries similarly. An impo...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Urban Escalators and Inter-regional Elevators: The Difference that Location, Mobility and Sectoral Specialisation make to Occupational Progression

This paper uses evidence from the (British) Longitudinal Study to examine the influence on occupational advancement of the city-region of residence (an escalator effect) and of relocation between city-regions (an elevato...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Risk and evidence of bias in randomized controlled trials in economics

The randomized controlled trial (RCT) has been a heavily utilized research tool in medicine for over 60 years. Since the early 2000?s, large-scale RCTs have been used in increasingly large numbers in the social sciences ...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Urban Wage Growth Premium: Sorting or Learning?

This paper is concerned with the urban wage premium and addresses two central issues about which the field has not yet reached a consensus. First, the extent to which sorting of high ability individuals into urban areas ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The marginal income effect of education on happiness: estimating the direct and indirect effects of compulsory schooling on well-being in Australia

Many economists and educators favour public support for education on the premise that education improves the overall well-being of citizens. However, little is known about the causal pathways through which education shap...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Rocketing Rents The magnitude and attenuation of agglomeration economies in the commercial property market

Rocketing rents in urban areas are likely explained by agglomeration economies. This paper measures the impact of these external economies on commercial property values using unique micro?]data on commercial rents and em...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Specialization and Regional Economic Development

Debates about urban growth and change often center on specialization.However, arguments linking specialization to metropolitan economic development contain diverse, and sometimes conflicting, claims. Is it better to be h...Read more...

Journal article

Regional Science and Urban Economics:

Agglomeration, trade and selection

This paper studies how firm heterogeneity in terms of productivity affects the balance between agglomeration and dispersion forces in the presence of pecuniary externalities through a selection model of monopolistic comp...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Economics of Density: Evidence from the Berlin Wall

This paper develops a quantitative model of city structure to separate agglomeration forces, dispersion forces and fundamentals as determinants of location choices. The model remains tractable and amenable to empirical a...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The Economics of Density: Evidence from the Berlin Wall

This paper develops a quantitative model of city structure to separate agglomeration forces, dispersion forces and fundamentals as determinants of location choices. The model remains tractable and amenable to empirical a...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Agglomeration, Trade and Selection

This paper studies how firm heterogeneity in terms of productivity affects the balance between agglomeration and dispersion forces in the presence of pecuniary externalities through a selection model of monopolistic comp...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Measuring the (Income) Effect of Disability Insurance Generosity on Labour Market Participation

We analyze the employment effect of a law that provides for a 36 percent increase in the generosity of disability insurance (DI) for claimants who are, as a result of their lack of skills and of the labour market conditi...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Geographic Concentration and the Temporal Scope of Agglomeration Economics: An Index Decomposition

The paper decomposes a geographical concentration index to examine the temporal scope of a spillover, which is the period of time over which one firm?s activity directly affects the location of other firms? activities. N...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Agglomeration Externalities and Urban Growth Controls

Should constraints on urban expansion be relaxed because of external agglomeration economies? In a system of heterogeneous cities, we demonstrate that second-best land use policy consists of a tax on city creation and a ...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

On the Relative Importance of Agglomeration Economies in the Location of FDI Across British Regions

The paper examines the relative importance for industrial location of production linkages and knowledge spillovers, distinguishing between intermediate and non-intermediate goods that are backwards or forwards in nature....Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

From Russia with Love: The Impact of Relocated Firms on Incumbent Survival

We identify the impact of local firm concentration on incumbent performance with a quasi natural experiment. When Germany was divided after World War II, many firms in the machine tool industry fled the Soviet occupied z...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Is the Sky the Limit? An Analysis of High-Rise Office Buildings

Modern central business districts are characterised by high-rise office buildings. Helsley and Strange (2008) argue that skyscrapers are caused by agglomeration economies and a prize for being the tallest, so a reputatio...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The Penn-Belassa-Samuelson Effect in Developing Countries: Price and Income Revisited

It is conventional wisdom that richer countries have a higher price level than poorer countries. This paper provides evidence that the price-income relationship is non-linear and that it turns negative, or at best flat, ...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Agglomeration in the Periphery

i. This discussion paper is a completely revised version of SERCDP0047, published April 2010....Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Investigating Agglomeration Economies in a Panel of European Cities and Regions

This paper investigates agglomeration economies in an annual panel of NUTS 2 and NUTS 3 city regions across France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Spain and the UK over 1980-2006 and comparing three sub-samples to see if the e...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Industry and the Urge to Cluster: A Study of the Informal Sector in India

This paper studies the determinants of firm location choice at the district-level in India to gauge the relative importance of agglomeration economies vis-a-vis good business environment. A peculiar characteristic of the...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Self-Reinforcing Shocks: Evidence from a Resettlement Policy

i. A completely revised version of this paper is available as SERCDP0080, May 2011....Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Agglomeration Elasticities and Firm Heterogeneity

This paper estimates the relationship between agglomeration and multi factor productivity at the one digit industry level and by region using longitudinal firm level data for New Zealand. A key focus of the paper is on m...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Impact of Aging and Technological Relatedness on Agglomeration Externalities: A Survival Analysis

We study localization, urbanization, and Jacobs? externality effects on plant survival in Sweden (1970-2004). We focus on two questions: (1) do agglomeration externalities change with the age of plants? (2) using new inf...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Dynamics of FDI Location: A Markov Analysis for British Regions

The paper uses the framework of Markov chains to examine convergence in the location of inward foreign direct investment across the regions of Great Britain over 1985-2005. An analysis is undertaken by industry group tha...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Agglomeration Economies and Labour Productivity: Evidence from Longitudinal Worker Data for GB's Travel-to-Work Areas

This paper analyzes the impact of agglomeration externalities on hourly earnings using longitudinal worker micro-level data from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings over the period 2002- 2006. We find that the effect...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

The Productivity Advantages of Large Cities: Distinguishing Agglomeration from Firm Selection

Firms are more productive on average in larger cities. Two explanations have been offered: agglomeration economies (larger cities promote interactions that increase productivity) and firm selection (larger cities toughen...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Assessing Agglomeration Economies in a Spatial Framework with Endogenous Regressors

This paper is concerned with the influence of agglomeration economies on economic outcomes across British regions. The concentration of economic activity in one place can foster economic performance due to the reduction ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Economic Geography: A Review of the Theoretical and Empirical Literature

This paper reviews the new economic geography literature, which accounts for the uneven distribution of economic activity across space in terms of a combination of love of variety preferences, increasing returns to scale...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Survival of the Fittest in Cities: Agglomeration, Selection and Polarisation

Empirical studies consistently report that labour productivity and TFP rise with city size. The reason is that cities attract the most productive agents, select the best of them, and make the selected ones even more prod...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Survival of the Fittest in Cities: Agglomeration, Selection, and Polarisation

Empirical studies consistently report that labour productivity and TFP rise with city size. The reason is that cities attract the most productive agents, select the best of them, and make the selected ones even more prod...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Evolution of Locations, Specialisation and Factor Returns with Two Distinct Waves of Globalisation

This paper presents an economic geography model with two differentiated sectors that exhibit weaker inter and stronger intra-industry input-output linkages. Labour is also differentiated according to skills in a hierarch...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Testing the 'Waterbed' Effect in Mobile Telephony

This paper examines the impact of regulatory intervention to cut termination rates of calls from fixed lines to mobile phones. Under quite general conditions of competition, theory suggests that lower termination charges...Read more...

CEE/Education and skills discussion paper

Urban Density and Pupil Attainment

We explore the association between urban density and pupil attainment using three cohorts of pupils in schooling in England. Although ? as widely recognised ? attainment in dense urban places is low on average, this is n...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The Plant Size-Place Effect: Agglomeration and Monopsony in Labour Markets

This paper shows, using data from both the US and the UK, that average plant size is larger in denser markets. However, many popular theories of agglomeration ? spillovers, cost advantages and improved match quality ? pr...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Rising Trade Costs? Agglomeration and Trade with Endogenous Transaction Costs

While transport costs have fallen, the empirical evidence also points at rising total trade costs. In a model of industry location with endogenous transaction costs, we show how and under which conditions a decline in tr...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Productivity Growth and Employment: Theory and Panel Estimates

Theoretical predictions of the effect of TFP growth on employment are ambiguous, and depend on the extent to which new technology is embodied in new jobs. We estimate a model for employment, wages and investment with an ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Evaluating Urban Transport Improvements: Cost Benefit Analysis in the Presence of Agglomeration and Income Taxation

There is a substantial empirical literature quantifying the positive relationship between city size and productivity. The paper draws out the implications of this productivity relationship for evaluations of urban transp...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Cities, Matching and the Productivity Gains of Agglomeration

The striking geographical concentration of economic activities suggests that there are substantial benefits to agglomeration. However, the nature of those benefits remains unclear. In this paper we take advantage of a ne...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Buzz: Face-to-Face Contact and the Urban Economy

This paper argues that existing models of urban concentrations are incomplete unless grounded in the most fundamental aspect of proximity; face-to-face contact. Face-to-face contact has four main features; it is an effic...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

City Size Distributions As A Consequence of the Growth Process

The size distribution of cities in many countries follows some broadly regular patterns. Any good theory of city size distributions should (i) be able to account for this regularity, but also (ii) rely on a plausible eco...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Trade and Industrial Location with Heterogeneous Labor

We show in the framework of a new economic geography model that when labor is heterogenous and productivity depends on the quality of the match between job and worker, trade liberalization may lead to industrial agglomer...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The Union Membership Wage Premium: An Analysis Using Propensity Score Matching

This paper estimates the size of the union membership wage premium by comparing wage outcomes for unionised workers with 'matched' non-unionised workers. The method assumes selection on observables. For this identifyin...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Labor Pooling, Labor Poaching and Spatial Clustering

When firms cluster in the same local labor market, they face a trade-off between the benefits of labor pooling (i.e., access to workers whose knowledge help reduce costs) and the costs of labor poaching (i.e., loss of so...Read more...