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Carbon taxes, path dependency, and directed technical change: evidence from the auto industry

Philippe Aghion, Antoine Dechezlepretre, David Hemous, Ralf Martin and John Van Reenen


Can directed technical change be used to combat climate change? We construct new firm-level panel data on auto industry innovation distinguishing between ?dirty? (internal combustion engine) and ?clean? (e.g., electric, hybrid, and hydrogen) patents across 80 countries over several decades. We show that firms tend to innovate more in clean (and less in dirty) technologies when they face higher tax-inclusive fuel prices. Furthermore, there is path dependence in the type of innovation (clean/dirty) both from aggregate spillovers and from the firm?s own innovation history. We simulate the increases in carbon taxes needed to allow clean technologies to overtake dirty technologies. ? 2016 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.


1 February 2016


Journal of Political Economy 124(1) , pp.1-51, 2016


DOI: 10.1086/684581

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/684581?journalCode=jpe

This Journal article is published under the centre's Growth programme.