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Blog

LSE Business Review:

World trade remains dangerously dependent on a handful of shipping lanes

The conflict in Iran has been reignited by disagreements about control of a critical shipping lane. But the Strait of Hormuz is not the only chokepoint making global trade vulnerable. Ferdinand Rauch, Stephan Maurer and ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The fragility of the global trading system

We use a parsimonious gravity framework to simulate and compare five potential shocks to the global shipping system: closures of the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, and the Strait of Malacca, and openings of the Northwest ...Read more...

Journal article

Regional Science and Urban Economics:

Using the past to understand cities: transportation before the Industrial Revolution in urban economics

We study the role of historic transportation in Urban Economics. First, we summarize the literature on transport cost before the Industrial Revolution and how they have influenced the shape and location of cities until t...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of International Economics:

Networks in trade - evidence from the legacy of the Hanseatic league

We study trade networks following the decline of the Hanseatic League, using a novel trade data set that covers cities and captains in Northern Europe over 190 years. By the time of its dissolution in 1669, trade on form...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Geography:

When market access gains do not spur urban growth

We revisit the natural experiments of division and unification of Germany. The negative shock to local market access following the division of Germany led to a fast and strong downward adjustment of the size of West Germ...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Regional Science:

Within-city roads and urban growth

In this paper we study the role of within-city roads layout in fostering city growth. Within-city roads networks have not been studied extensively in economics although they are essential to facilitate human interactions...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Identifying agglomeration shadows: long-run evidence from ancient ports

We examine "agglomeration shadows" that emerge around large cities, which discourage some economic activities in nearby areas. Identifying agglomeration shadows is complicated, however, by endogenous city formation and "...Read more...

Journal article

Oxford Economic Papers:

Economic geography aspects of the Panama Canal

This paper studies how the opening of the Panama Canal in 1914 changed counties? market potential and influenced the economic geography of the USA. We compute shipment effective distances with and without the canal from ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Trade persistence and trader identity - evidence from the demise of the Hanseatic League

How do trade networks persist following disruptions of political networks? We study different types of persistence following the decline of the Hanseatic League using a panel of 21,590 city-level trade flows over 190 yea...Read more...

Journal article

Regional Science and Urban Economics:

What future for history dependence in spatial economics?

History (sometimes) matters for the location and sizes of cities and neighborhood segregation patterns within cities. Together with evidence on rapid neighborhood change and self-fulfilling expectations, this implies tha...Read more...

Journal article

The Review of Economics and Statistics:

Of mice and merchants: connectedness and the location of economicactivity in the Iron Age

We study the causal relationship between geographic connectedness and development using one of the earliest massive trade expansions: the first systematic crossing of open seas in the Mediterranean during the time of the...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Political Economy:

Planning ahead for better beighborhoods: long-run evidence from Tanzania

Africa?s demand for urban housing is soaring, even as it faces a proliferation of slums. In this setting, can modest infrastructure investments in greenfield areas where people subsequently build their own houses facilit...Read more...

Journal article

World Bank Economic Review:

Migration and urbanization in post-apartheid South Africa

Although Africa has experienced rapid urbanization in recent decades, little is known about the process of urbanization across the continent. This paper exploits a natural experiment, the abolition of South African pass ...Read more...

Journal article

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics:

Flooded cities

Does economic activity move away from areas that are at high risk of recurring shocks? We examine this question in the context of floods, which displaced more than 650 million people worldwide in the last 35 years. We st...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

How the Panama Canal reshaped the economic geography of the United States

In the early 20th century a ship travelling from San Francisco to New York or on to Europe first had to travel over 13,000 miles around the entirety of South America. That all changed in August of 1914 with the opening o...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Economic geography aspects of the Panama Canal

This paper studies how the opening of the Panama Canal in 1914 changed market access and influenced the economic geography of the United States. We compute shipment distances with and without the canal from each US count...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of the European Economic Association:

Task specialization in US cities from 1880 to 2000

We develop a new methodology for quantifying the tasks undertaken within occupations using over 3,000 verbs from more than 12,000 occupational descriptions in the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOTs). Using micro dat...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Trade and growth in the Iron Age

Stephan Maurer and colleagues investigate the growth effects of one of the first trade expansions in history: the crossing of the Mediterranean by the Phoenicians ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Of mice and merchants: trade and growth in the Iron Age

We study the causal connection between trade and development using one of the earliest massive trade expansions: the first systematic crossing of open seas in the Mediterranean during the time of the Phoenicians. We cons...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic History:

A dissection of trading capital: trade in the aftermath of the fall of the Iron Curtain

We study trade in Europe after the fall of the Iron Curtain, and show that the countries of the former Austro-Hungarian monarchy trade significantly more with one another after 1989 than predicted by a standard gravity m...Read more...

Journal article

The Economic Journal:

Resetting the urban network: 117-2012

Do fixed geographic features such as coastlines and rivers determine town locations, or can historical events trap towns in unfavourable locations for centuries? We examine the effects on town locations of the collapse o...Read more...

Journal article

The Quarterly Journal of Economics:

The benefits of forced experimentation: striking evidence from the London underground network

We present evidence that a significant fraction of commuters on the London Underground do not travel on their optimal route. We show that a strike on the Underground, which forced many commuters to experiment with new ro...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Planning Ahead for Better Neighborhoods: Long Run Evidence from Tanzania

What are the long run consequences of planning and providing basic infrastructure in neighborhoods, where people build their own homes? We study "Sites and Services" projects implemented in seven Tanzanian cities during ...Read more...

Journal article

Review of International Economics:

The geometry of the distance coefficient in gravity equations in international trade

Gravity equations in trade imply that trade flows are proportional to the size of a country and inversely proportional to distance. This paper develops the analogy of gravity in physics with gravity in trade and provides...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Flooded cities

Economic activity tends to return to flood-prone areas after floods rather than relocating to higher ground. What?s more, cities built in flood-prone areas are locking in exposure to flood risk for the long term. These a...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Flooded cities

Does economic activity relocate away from areas that are at high risk of recurring shocks? We examine this question in the context of floods, which are among the costliest and most common natural disasters. Over the past...Read more...

CentrePiece article

The upside of London Tube strikes

In February 2014, strikes by staff on London's underground network enabled a sizeable fraction of commuters to find better routes, according to research by Shaun Larcom, Ferdinand Rauch and Tim Willems. Many commuters w...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The benefits of forced experimentation: striking evidence from the London Underground network

We estimate that a significant fraction of commuters on the London underground do not travel their optimal route. Consequently, a tube strike (which forced many commuters to experiment with new routes) taught commuters a...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Can cities be trapped in bad locations?

After the fall of the Roman Empire, urban life in France became a shadow of its former self, but in Britain it completely disappeared. Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch use these contrasting experiences as a natural exper...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Resetting the urban network: 117-2012

Do locational fundamentals such as coastlines and rivers determine town locations, or can historical events trap towns in unfavourable locations for centuries? We examine the effects on town locations of the collapse of ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Task Specialization in U.S. Cities from 1880-2000

We develop a new methodology for quantifying the tasks undertaken within occupations using 3,000 verbs from around 12,000 occupational descriptions in the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOTs). Using micro-data from t...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Advertising Expenditure and Consumer Prices

This paper studies the effect of a change in the marginal costs of advertising on advertising expenditures of firms and consumer prices across industries. It makes use of a unique policy change that caused a decrease of ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Success and Failure of African Exporters

Using a novel dataset with transactions level exports data from four African countries (Malawi, Mali, Senegal and Tanzania), this paper uncovers evidence of a high degree of experimentation at the extensive margin associ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Trade as an Engine of Creative Destruction: Mexican Experience with Chinese Competition

This paper exploits the surge in Chinese exports from 1994 to 2004 as a natural experiment to evaluate the effects of a unilateral low wage trade and competition shock to producers in Mexico. We find that this shock caus...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Urbanisation and Structural Transformation

This paper presents new evidence on urbanization using sub-county data for the United States from 1880-2000 and municipality data for Brazil from 1970-2000. We show that the two central stylized features of population gr...Read more...