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Election analyses

Readable, informed and unbiased summaries of economic research to inform debate on key election issues, such as crime, the economy and the environment.

CEP election series graphic
Housing and planning

The fundamental cause of our housing crisis is not building enough houses, supply side reform is the only effective solution.
Immigration

Immigration is a significant political issue. But the impact on wages and employment for UK-born citizens seems to be minimal.
Spatial disparities in productivity and income

Improving productivity requires choosing cities for investment.
Growth and productivity

The UK's record on growth and productivity - what underlies its poor performance, and what can be done about it?

All Election analyses

CEP election analysis
Research evidence on key issues in the 2024 UK General Election

A collection of 11 briefings produced by CEP during the 2024 general election campaign providing a snapshot of the UK economy....Read more...

8 July 2024

CEP election analysis
Energy and climate change

The scale of change and investment required for net zero is challenging, but early action is the most cost-effective way to achieve the 2050 target and could bring opportunities....Read more...

Leo Mercer, Esin Serin and Anna Valero

3 July 2024

CEP election analysis
Real wages, inequality and living standards

Real wage growth has stagnated. Policies which boost productivity or halt and reverse the trend to more employer power in wage bargaining are important in getting the UK out of the stagnation trap....Read more...

Stephen Machin

2 July 2024

CEP election analysis
Further and higher education

There are not enough graduates for sectors in which the UK has a comparative advantage and there are too few people educated to sub-degree level compared to other countries....Read more...

Sandra McNally, Guglielmo Ventura and Gill Wyness

1 July 2024

CEP election analysis
Schools

Schools in England, and the UK as a whole, need greater investment. Failure to do so puts economic growth in jeopardy as well as worsening social mobility....Read more...

Lee Elliot Major, Stephen Gibbons, Sandra McNally and Shqiponja Telhaj

1 July 2024

CEP election analysis
Wellbeing

Wellbeing should be the overarching aim of government. Assessing policies by showing the wellbeing benefit relative to cost would mean mental health becoming a top priority for policy development....Read more...

Richard Layard

28 June 2024

CEP election analysis
Immigration

In 2023, the majority of migrants were workers or students, and their dependants. Humanitarian immigration also increased - with visa schemes set up for those fleeing Ukraine and Hong Kong....Read more...

Tessa Hall and Alan Manning

26 June 2024

CEP election analysis
Housing and planning

The housing affordability crisis not only restricts access to decent housing, or housing at all, but it has adverse effects on equality, social cohesion, retirement planning, productivity and economic growth....Read more...

Paul Cheshire and Christian A. L. Hilber

25 June 2024

CEP election analysis
Work, wages and inactivity

The recent aggregate performance of the UK labour market looks good. But aggregate performance often obscures important changes around averages. Inequality along several dimensions remains a persistent feature of the UK ...Read more...

Jonathan Wadsworth

24 June 2024

CEP election analysis
Spatial disparities in productivity and income

This briefing looks at the causes and consequences of UK spatial disparities and what, if anything, policy can do to address them....Read more...

Will Brett-Harding and Henry G. Overman

20 June 2024

CEP election analysis
Brexit and UK trade

This briefing summarises the evidence about how leaving the European Union (EU) has affected UK trade. Overall, Brexit has had a negative effect on UK trade. But, so far, this effect has been smaller than economists expe...Read more...

Dennis Novy, Thomas Sampson and Catherine Thomas

17 June 2024

CEP election analysis
Growth and productivity

The collapse in productivity growth underlies many of the problems of the UK economy – from squeezed public services to stagnant living standards. Productivity growth in the UK has been weak relative to its own past and...Read more...

Anna Valero and John Van Reenen

12 June 2024

CEP election analysis
#GE2019Economists: the research evidence on key issues for voters in the 2019 UK General Election

The general election of 2019 was called after negotiations over how the UK should leave the European Union became increasingly tortuous. While Brexit may have been the trigger for the election, it was far from being the ...Read more...

4 December 2019

CEP election analysis
Policing and crime

A long period of austerity and budget cuts in policing that started when Theresa May became Home Secretary may be coming to an end. As austerity bit and budget cuts were implemented, this considerably reduced the size of...Read more...

Tom Kirchmaier

29 November 2019

CEP election analysis
Energy and climate change

UK greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are declining and have been declining for some time. As of 2018, the UK emitted 449 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e). That corresponds to a reduction of 43% relative to 1990 lev...Read more...

Ralf Martin, Petra Sarapatkova and Dennis Verhoeven

29 November 2019

CEP election analysis
Health and social care

The National Health Service (NHS) is arguably the one national institution that unifies the country in terms of general public support. But there is growing concern about the long-term sustainability of the NHS, with 57%...Read more...

Michael Anderson, Alistair McGuire and Elias Mossialos

28 November 2019

CEP election analysis
Immigration

Immigration remains a highly contentious issue and its purported effects on the labour market and the wider economy are still highly contested. The discussion in this briefing is intended as a short overview of what we k...Read more...

Jonathan Wadsworth

28 November 2019

CEP election analysis
Housing

Housing affordability is a key concern of an ever-larger fraction of UK voters who are crammed into artificially limited space. It also underlies the sense of being shut out of prosperity and unable to escape declining l...Read more...

Paul Cheshire and Christian A. L. Hilber

27 November 2019

CEP election analysis
Education and skills

Debates about how to improve education and skills are likely to be an important theme in the run-up to the general election. This briefing summarises evidence on education and skills from the Centre for Economic Performa...Read more...

Jo Blanden, Sandra McNally and Gill Wyness

27 November 2019

CEP election analysis
The UK economy: policies for investment and productivity growth

Since the global financial crisis, the UK has been grappling with persistent poor productivity performance. While a number of factors have been at play, reduced investment due to austerity harmed growth in the early year...Read more...

Anna Valero and John Van Reenen

25 November 2019

CEP election analysis
Brexit economics

Since the UK voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, Brexit has dominated UK politics and economic policy. Three and a half years after the referendum, the UK is yet to leave the EU, there is no certainty over if...Read more...

Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson

25 November 2019

CEP election analysis
People, places and politics

Economic performance varies widely between the towns, cities and regions of the UK. On some measures, this variation has widened since the financial crisis. These disparities have already proved to be a key theme in the ...Read more...

Henry G. Overman

22 November 2019

CEP election analysis
The labour market

The UK labour market, at first glance, seems to be playing at Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde. Employment (in terms of both levels and rates) is at record highs, yet wage growth has been extraordinarily weak. One view is that thes...Read more...

Rui Costa and Stephen Machin

21 November 2019

CEP election analysis
Social mobility

Debates over how to improve life prospects for people irrespective of their family background promise to be a key theme in the run-up to the 2019 General Election. This briefing summarises evidence on social mobility fro...Read more...

Lee Elliot Major and Stephen Machin

20 November 2019

CEP election analysis
#GE2017Economists: The Research Evidence on Key Issues for Voters in the 2017 UK General Election

The unexpected UK general election of 2017 was intended to be all about Brexit, one that will give the incoming government a mandate to negotiate the terms of the UK’s exit from the European Union (EU). But many other pu...Read more...

Stephen Machin and Romesh Vaitilingam

7 June 2017

CEP election analysis
Brexit as Climate Policy: The Agenda on Energy and the Environment

The Great Recession and a sluggish economic recovery were instrumental in meeting the legally binding climate change targets that the UK has set for itself. But without more drastic policy interventions, it is unlikely t...Read more...

Ralf Martin

5 June 2017

CEP election analysis
The UK's Regional Divide: Can Policy Make a Difference

There are large variations in economic performance across the cities and regions of the UK. There is a broad North-South pattern to these disparities. But there is also substantial variation within those broad areas: som...Read more...

Henry G. Overman

2 June 2017

CEP election analysis
Education and Skills: The UK Policy Agenda

The UK’s overall school budget has been protected in real terms but does not provide for funding per pupil to increase in line with inflation. Because pupil numbers are increasing, large falls in expenditure per pupil ar...Read more...

Sandra McNally and Gill Wyness

1 June 2017

CEP election analysis
Brexit and the UK Economy

This general election is pitched as the ‘Brexit Election’, one that will give the incoming government a mandate to negotiate the terms of the UK’s exit from the European Union (EU). The Conservatives and Labour have both...Read more...

Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson

31 May 2017

CEP election analysis
Immigration and the UK Economy

Immigration to the UK has grown a lot over the last 20 years and a significant fraction of this growth has been from other EU countries, especially after 2004 and the accession of the eight East European countries (‘A8’)...Read more...

Jonathan Wadsworth

30 May 2017

CEP election analysis
The UK's New Industrial Strategy

‘Industrial strategy’ has returned to the policy agenda, with the government recently setting out its plans in a Green Paper, and dedicated sections appearing in the election manifestos of all three main parties. Until r...Read more...

Anna Valero

26 May 2017

CEP election analysis
The NHS and Social Care: Prospects for Funding, Staffing and Performance into the 2020s

Health featured prominently in the 2016 referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union (EU), with the Leave campaign’s claim that Brexit would mean that £350 million extra money per week could be transferred fro...Read more...

Alistair McGuire

25 May 2017

CEP election analysis
Real Wages and Living Standards in the UK

Since the global financial crisis of 2007/08, workers’ real wages and family living standards in the UK have suffered to an extent unprecedented in modern history. Real wages of the typical (median) worker have fallen by...Read more...

Rui Costa and Stephen Machin

19 May 2017

CEP election analysis
A New Priority for Mental Health

Mental illness (especially depression and chronic anxiety) is the biggest single cause of misery in advanced countries. But only one quarter of those who are ill receive treatment. Mental health is crucial for wellbeing ...Read more...

Richard Layard

1 May 2015

CEP election analysis
#ElectionEconomics: The Research Evidence on Key Issues for Voters in the 2015 UK General Election

Please see the CEP #ElectionEconomics report(Paper 1)and the Executive Summary (Paper 2) that cover all the election 2015 briefings, discussing the research evidence on 15 of the UK's key policy battlegrounds: immigratio...Read more...

Ghazala Azmat, Brian Bell, Jonathan Colmer, Antoine Dechezleprêtre, Swati Dhingra, Christian A. L. Hilber, Stephen Machin, Alan Manning, Ralf Martin, Alistair McGuire, Sandra McNally, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, Henry G. Overman, Isabelle Roland, Thomas Sampson, Anna Valero, John Van Reenen, Jonathan Wadsworth, Gill Wyness and Gabriel Zucman

30 April 2015

CEP election analysis
UK Housing and Planning Policies: the evidence from economic research

Housing affordability is a key concern of an ever-larger fraction of UK voters who are crammed into artificially limited space. At the same time, a lot of wealth lies in housing assets and there are many vested interests...Read more...

Christian A. L. Hilber

24 April 2015

CEP election analysis
Energy and the Environment: a cold climate for climate change policies?

The UK's main political parties have all pledged to combat climate change whatever the result of the general election. Yet according to a new report from the CEP, much of the discussion is largely rhetoric, with limited ...Read more...

Jonathan Colmer, Antoine Dechezleprêtre and Ralf Martin

23 April 2015

CEP election analysis
Fighting Crime: Can the Police do more with less?

The coalition government's austerity programme has resulted in some sizeable reductions in the police workforce, yet crime has continued to fall. A key question for the next Parliament is whether further real-terms reduc...Read more...

Brian Bell

21 April 2015

CEP election analysis
Inequality: Are we really 'all in this together'?

The UK's top 1% have between 12.5% and 15.5% of all income. This is mid-way between the United States (20%) and Continental Europe (8%). This share has been rising steadily since the late 1970s, mainly due to labour inco...Read more...

Gabriel Zucman

16 April 2015

CEP election analysis
Top Rate of Income Tax

The main political parties disagree about the appropriate rate of income Tax on the highest incomes. This note lays out the economic principles surrounding the top rate of income tax and considers the evidence that high ...Read more...

Alan Manning

16 April 2015

CEP election analysis
Health: How Will the NHS Fare in a Cold Climate?

With the NHS a central issue of the 2015 general election, the parties are debating funding, the form of provision, quality and productivity. This paper looks at the NHS record under the coalition government and consider...Read more...

Alistair McGuire and John Van Reenen

10 April 2015

CEP election analysis
Gender Gaps in the UK Labour Market: jobs, pay and family-friendly policies

Differences in the labour market experiences of men and women have fallen over the last 20 years, but there are still sizeable ‘gender gaps’ in employment and wages. Certain factors help to explain a good part of gender ...Read more...

Ghazala Azmat

1 April 2015

CEP election analysis
Paying for Higher Education

The UK Higher Education sector has changed radically as a result of Coalition Policies – most obviously through the dramatic increase in the tuition fee cap from £3,375 to £9,000 per year. However, the greatest issue ari...Read more...

Gill Wyness

27 March 2015

CEP election analysis
The Economic Performance of UK Cities: Can Urban and Regional Policy Make a Difference to the North-South Divide

There are large variations in economic performance across UK cities and on some measures, they have widened since the global financial crisis. All main parties promise action to reduce them, but there is little differenc...Read more...

Henry G. Overman

26 March 2015

CEP election analysis
Real Wages and Living Standards

Real wages and living standards have taken a hard hit in the UK in the recent past. Real wages of the typical (median) UK worker have fallen by almost 10% since 2008 and median family incomes have significantly fallen fo...Read more...

Stephen Machin

25 March 2015

CEP election analysis
Schools: The Evidence on Academies, Resources and Pupil Performance

England’s performance in international tests of student achievement continues to be disappointing. Further improvement is essential not only for students’ themselves but also for economic growth. This briefing considers ...Read more...

Sandra McNally

24 March 2015

CEP election analysis
Should We Stay or Should We Go? The economic consequences of leaving the EU

We analyze the effects of Brexit on the UK economy. The most important economic consequence of Brexit would likely be reduced trade with EU countries. We consider an optimistic scenario with relatively small increases in...Read more...

Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano and Thomas Sampson

23 March 2015

CEP election analysis
Productivity and Business Policies

UK productivity stagnated after the Great Recession of 2008-09 and remains about 15 percent below historical trends. This 'productivity puzzle' is due to a mixture of cyclical and structural effects - the fall is not ent...Read more...

Isabelle Roland and Anna Valero

18 March 2015

CEP election analysis
Austerity: Growth Costs and Post-Election Plans

The austerity programme of the coalition government knocked at least one percent per year off growth in the first two years of this Parliament. In retrospect, this looks like a mistake and the slower pace of austerity in...Read more...

John Van Reenen

11 March 2015

CEP election analysis
Immigration and the UK Labour Market

During periods of strong economic growth, migration is and has always been important for filling gaps in the labour market. Perceptions do not seem to line up with the existing academic evidence. On balance, the evidence...Read more...

Jonathan Wadsworth

26 February 2015

CEP election analysis
The Scottish Referendum: Breaking Up is Hard – and expensive - to Do

The Scottish Referendum: CEP Director John Van Reenen on why with a 'YES' vote, the Scottish people will be poorer. A lot poorer...Read more...

John Van Reenen

15 September 2014

CEP election analysis
CEP Election Analysis 2010 - The complete Series, discussing research on some of the key policy battlegrounds of the 2010 General Election

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April 2010

CEP election analysis
Climate Change: Consensus on the Long-Run Targets - But Will We Get Policies that Deliver?

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Ralf Martin

April 2010

CEP election analysis
Inequality: Still Higher, But Labour's Policies Kept it Down

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Stephen Machin and John Van Reenen

April 2010

CEP election analysis
Urban Renewal and Regional Growth: Muddled Objectives and Mixed Progress

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Henry G. Overman

April 2010

CEP election analysis
Macroeconomics and Public Finances: The worst is yet to come

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Tom Cunningham and Ethan Ilzetzki

April 2010

CEP election analysis
Jobs and Youth Unemployment: It's bad, but not as bad as you might think

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Barbara Petrongolo and John Van Reenen

Revised November 2011

CEP election analysis
Financial Regulation: Can We Avoid Another Great Recession?

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Luis Garicano

April 2010

CEP election analysis
Bankers' Bonuses

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Brian Bell

April 2010

CEP election analysis
Health: Higher Spending has Improved Quality, But Productivity Must Increase

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Zack Cooper and Alistair McGuire

April 2010

CEP election analysis
Evaluating Education Policies: The Evidence from Economic Research

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Sandra McNally

April 2010

CEP election analysis
Reducing Crime: More Police, More Prisons or More Pay?

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Olivier Marie

April 2010

CEP election analysis
Immigration and the UK Labour Market: The Evidence from Economic Research

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Jonathan Wadsworth

April 2010

CEP election analysis
Immigration: The Evidence from Economic Research

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Jonathan Wadsworth

27 June 2013

CEP election analysis
Life Opportunities: The Evidence on the UK’s Declining Social Mobility

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Jo Blanden

27 June 2013

CEP election analysis
Macroeconomic Assessment: Interest Rates, Taxes and Spending

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Christopher Crowe

27 June 2013

CEP election analysis
Reducing Crime: More Police, More Prisons or More Pay?

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Olivier Marie

27 June 2013

CEP election analysis
Health Care: Evidence on the Impact of Increased Spending and Patient Choice

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Alistair McGuire and John Van Reenen

27 June 2013

CEP election analysis
Welfare to Work: The Evidence on Labour’s New Deal Policies

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John Van Reenen

27 June 2013