From 2005 to 2019, forty US states raised the dollar value threshold delineating misdemeanor and felony theft, reducing the expected punishment for a subset of property crimes. Using an event study framework, we observe significant and growing increases in theft after a state reform is passed. We then show that reduced sanctions for theft have broader effects in the market for illegal activity. Consistent with a mechanism of substitution across income-generating crimes, we find decreases in both drug distribution crimes and the probability that a released offender previously convicted of drug distribution is reincarcerated for a new drug conviction.

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24 October 2025     Paper Number CEPDP2130

Download PDF - Better stealing than dealing: how do felony theft thresholds impact crime?

This CEP discussion paper is published under the centre's Crime programme.

This publication comes under the following theme: Causes of crime