Causes of crime

CEP discussion paper

Gangs of London and public housing

Novel spatial data on London street gangs between 1990 and 2015 are combined with local housing characteristics to produce a newly constructed data source that shows how social housing and its architectural design relate...Read more...

Richard Disney, Tom Kirchmaier, Stephen Machin and Carmen Villa

28 January 2026

CEP discussion paper

A familiar offence: how households shape juvenile reoffending

In this paper we focus on how the criminal history of a household affects juvenile reoffending. Using detailed administrative data from Greater Manchester Police for 2007-2018, we construct a matched sample of 15,548 juv...Read more...

Tobias Auer and Tom Kirchmaier

3 November 2025

CEP discussion paper

Better stealing than dealing: how do felony theft thresholds impact crime?

From 2005 to 2019, forty US states raised the dollar value threshold delineating misdemeanor and felony theft, reducing the expected punishment for a subset of property crimes. Using an event study framework, we observe ...Read more...

Stephen B. Billings, Michael D. Makowsky, Kevin Schnepel and Adam Soliman

24 October 2025

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Higher workload for police officers correlates with victims withdrawing statements

In the UK, partners or family members are responsible for nearly half of all female homicides. But there is an increasing rate of statement withdrawal from victims in high-risk domestic abuse cases. Tom Kirchmaier and Ek...Read more...

Tom Kirchmaier and Ekaterina Oparina

15 April 2024

Blog

Economics Observatory:

How does compulsory school attendance affect youth violence?

Keeping young people in education can provide them with protection from crime as well as limiting opportunities for them to engage in criminal activities. But a policy of raising the age of compulsory attendance may also...Read more...

Matteo Sandi

1 November 2023

Blog

Economics Observatory:

Youth custody: who ends up there and how does it affect their later lives?

There are severe long-term consequences for young people in the UK who spend time in youth custody, the majority of whom are boys. Those with very low grades, in special education facilities and with additional education...Read more...

Stephen Machin, Sandra McNally and Jenifer Ruiz-Valenzuela

31 October 2023

Journal article

Labour Economics:

The gender reveal: the effect of sons on young fathers' criminal behavior and labor market activities

Based on New Zealand's administrative court charges data, we document child gender-specific differences in future criminal behavior of young fathers. The deterrent impact of having a son on the future likelihood of recei...Read more...

Kabir Dasgupta, Andre Diegmann, Tom Kirchmaier and Alexander Plum

1 October 2022

CentrePiece article

Covid-19: the impact on local crime rates

The pandemic changed the way people worked, shopped, socialised and travelled. Patterns of crime and policing changed too. Shubhangi Agrawal, Tom Kirchmaier and Carmen Villa-Llera reveal how different parts of the UK are...Read more...

Tom Kirchmaier and Carmen Villa-Llera

21 June 2022

CentrePiece article

Football, alcohol and domestic abuse

Reports of domestic abuse rise after football matches. Ria Ivandic, Tom Kirchmaier and Neus Torres-Blas find that binge drinking is the key factor - with alcohol-linked violence against live-in partners happening more of...Read more...

Ria Ivandic, Tom Kirchmaier and Neus Torres-Blas

22 February 2022

Blog

English Premier League podcast: EPLpod:

Football, alcohol and domestic abuse

Domestic abuse increases following football games - and this increase is driven by alcohol-related abuse, a new study from the London School of Economics and Political Science finds. The research from the LSE's Centre fo...Read more...

Ria Ivandic

11 October 2021

Journal article

Journal of the European Economic Association:

Prices, policing and policy: the dynamics of crime booms and busts

In many historical episodes, the extent of criminal activity has displayed booms and busts. One very clear example is the case of metal crime, where in the face of big increases in value driven by world commodity prices,...Read more...

Tom Kirchmaier, Stephen Machin, Matteo Sandi and Robert Witt

1 April 2020

Journal article

The Review of Economic Studies:

The changing returns to crime: do criminals respond to prices?

To what extent does crime follow the pattern of potential gains to illegal activity? This article presents evidence on how criminals respond to this key incentive by reporting crime-price elasticities estimated from a co...Read more...

Mirko Draca, Theodore Koutmeridis and Stephen Machin

1 May 2019

Journal article

Review of Economics and Statistics:

Crime scars: recessions and the making of career criminals

Recessions lead to short-term job loss, lower levels of happiness and decreasing income levels. There is growing evidence that workers who first join the labour market during economic downturns suffer from poor job match...Read more...

Brian Bell, Anna Bindler and Stephen Machin

1 July 2018

CentrePiece article

Metal crime: the impact of prices, policing and policy

Metal prices are strong drivers of metal crime, according to research by Tom Kirchmaier and colleagues. Their study traces how, over the past ten years, big rises in commodity prices led to a boom in metal crime in the U...Read more...

Tom Kirchmaier, Stephen Machin, Matteo Sandi and Robert Witt

29 June 2018

CentrePiece article

Larrikin youth: can education cut crime?

If young people spend longer in school, are they less likely to commit crimes? Stephen Machin and international collaborators examine the impact on youth crime of an educational reform in Australia that raised the minimu...Read more...

Tony Beatton, Michael P. Kidd, Stephen Machin and Dipa Sarkar

1 March 2017

CentrePiece article

Lessons from the economics of crime

Olivier Marie explains the value of an economic approach to the analysis, design and evaluation of crime-fighting policies....Read more...

Philip J. Cook, Stephen Machin, Olivier Marie and Giovanni Mastrobuoni

5 February 2014

Journal article

Review of Economics and Statistics:

Crime and immigration: evidence from large immigrant waves

This paper focuses on empirical connections between crime and immigration, studying two large waves of recent UK immigration (the late 1990s/early 2000s asylum seekers and the post-2004 inflow from EU accession countries...Read more...

Brian Bell, Francesco Fasani and Stephen Machin

1 October 2013

Book

Lessons from the Economics of Crime
What Reduces Offending?

Read more...

Edited by Philip J. Cook, Stephen Machin, Olivier Marie and Giovanni Mastrobuoni

1 October 2013

Journal article

Journal of Human Resources:

Crime and economic incentives

We explore the role that economic incentives, particularly changes in wages at the bottom end of the wage distribution, play in determining crime rates. We use data on the police force areas of England and Wales between ...Read more...

Stephen Machin and Costas Meghir

2 September 2004