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Peace and the pope
Mathieu Couttenier, Sophie Hatte, Lucile Laugerette and Tommaso Sonno
How do public speeches by global leaders affect conflict?
How do public speeches by global leaders affect conflict? This figure shows the weekly average effect of the pope's speeches - revealing that, overall, papal speeches are associated with a reduction in violence.
The research uses data from 85 peace-promoting speeches made by Pope John Paul II, Pope Benedict XVI and Pope Francis between 1997 and 2022. Each event study covers five weeks before until eight weeks after the speech, with the red lines representing the mean effects.
The results indicate a clear and immediate decline in conflict incidence after a speech. The figure shows that in the first week after the speech there is a drop of around 0.7 in the number of weekly conflicts compared to the baseline. As the average number of conflicts per week before a speech is 1.734, this means a reduction of 40% (-0.7/1.734). In the second and third weeks the decrease ranges from 18% and 22%. And, on average, conflict incidence decreases by approximately 27% over the three weeks following a papal speech.
Figure 1: Average effect of pope speeches on conflict
This article summarises "Dear brothers and sisters: pope's speeches and the dynamics of conflicts in Africa" by Mathieu Couttenier, Sophie Hatte, Lucile Laugerette and Tommaso Sonno, CEP Discussion Paper No. 2094.
Mathieu Couttenier is a professor of economics at Ecole Normale Superieure de Lyon. Sophie Hatte is an associate professor of economics at Ecole Normale Superieure de Lyon. Lucile Laugerette is a PhD candidate at Ecole Normale Superieure de Lyon. Tommaso Sonno is an associate professor of economics at the University of Bologna and a research associate in CEP's trade programme.
21 October 2025 Paper Number CEPCP719