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Ferdinand Rauch.

Ferdinand Rauch

Associate

Expertise: Urban Economics, International Economics, Economic History

Email:
ferdinand.rauch@unisg.ch
Connect:
Website
Links:
CEP Urban

Biography

Professor Ferdinand Rauch is Professor of Economics at the University of St Gallen, Switzerland. He is Associate at the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics. He is a Fellow of CEPR and a director of the Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economic Research.

Current areas of research include:

  • Economic Development of the Alps
  • How market access shaped history
  • Sorting in urban areas
  • Sorting in the neighborhood of cities

Publications

Blog
World trade remains dangerously dependent on a handful of shipping lanes

The conflict in Iran has been reignited by disagreements about control of a critical shipping lane. But the Strait of Hormuz is not the only chokepoint making global trade vulnerable. Ferdinand Rauch, Stephan Maurer and ... Read more...

Stephan Maurer, Luke Milsom and Ferdinand Rauch

09 July 2026

CEP discussion papers
The fragility of the global trading system

We use a parsimonious gravity framework to simulate and compare five potential shocks to the global shipping system: closures of the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, and the Strait of Malacca, and openings of the Northwest ... Read more...

Stephan Maurer, Luke Milsom and Ferdinand Rauch

27 May 2026

Journal article
Using the past to understand cities: transportation before the Industrial Revolution in urban economics

We study the role of historic transportation in Urban Economics. First, we summarize the literature on transport cost before the Industrial Revolution and how they have influenced the shape and location of cities until t... Read more...

Jan David Bakker and Ferdinand Rauch

14 May 2026

Journal article
Networks in trade - evidence from the legacy of the Hanseatic league

We study trade networks following the decline of the Hanseatic League, using a novel trade data set that covers cities and captains in Northern Europe over 190 years. By the time of its dissolution in 1669, trade on form... Read more...

Max Marczinek, Stephan Maurer and Ferdinand Rauch

01 September 2025

Journal article
When market access gains do not spur urban growth

We revisit the natural experiments of division and unification of Germany. The negative shock to local market access following the division of Germany led to a fast and strong downward adjustment of the size of West Germ... Read more...

Marius Klein and Ferdinand Rauch

01 November 2024

Journal article
Within-city roads and urban growth

In this paper we study the role of within-city roads layout in fostering city growth. Within-city roads networks have not been studied extensively in economics although they are essential to facilitate human interactions... Read more...

Paul Brandily and Ferdinand Rauch

01 September 2024

CEP discussion papers
Identifying agglomeration shadows: long-run evidence from ancient ports

We examine "agglomeration shadows" that emerge around large cities, which discourage some economic activities in nearby areas. Identifying agglomeration shadows is complicated, however, by endogenous city formation and "... Read more...

Richard Hornbeck, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch

26 June 2024

Journal article
Economic geography aspects of the Panama Canal

This paper studies how the opening of the Panama Canal in 1914 changed counties? market potential and influenced the economic geography of the USA. We compute shipment effective distances with and without the canal from ... Read more...

Stephan Maurer and Ferdinand Rauch

25 March 2022

CEP discussion papers
Trade persistence and trader identity - evidence from the demise of the Hanseatic League

How do trade networks persist following disruptions of political networks? We study different types of persistence following the decline of the Hanseatic League using a panel of 21,590 city-level trade flows over 190 yea... Read more...

Max Marczinek, Stephan Maurer and Ferdinand Rauch

02 February 2022

Journal article
What future for history dependence in spatial economics?

History (sometimes) matters for the location and sizes of cities and neighborhood segregation patterns within cities. Together with evidence on rapid neighborhood change and self-fulfilling expectations, this implies tha... Read more...

Jeffrey Lin and Ferdinand Rauch

05 January 2022

Journal article
Of mice and merchants: connectedness and the location of economicactivity in the Iron Age

We study the causal relationship between geographic connectedness and development using one of the earliest massive trade expansions: the first systematic crossing of open seas in the Mediterranean during the time of the... Read more...

Jan David Bakker, Stephan Maurer, Jorn-Steffen Pischke and Ferdinand Rauch

01 October 2021

Journal article
Planning ahead for better beighborhoods: long-run evidence from Tanzania

Africa?s demand for urban housing is soaring, even as it faces a proliferation of slums. In this setting, can modest infrastructure investments in greenfield areas where people subsequently build their own houses facilit... Read more...

Neeraj Baruah, Amanda Dahlstrand, Guy Michaels, Dzhamilya Nigmatulina, Ferdinand Rauch and Tanner Regan

01 July 2021

Journal article
Migration and urbanization in post-apartheid South Africa

Although Africa has experienced rapid urbanization in recent decades, little is known about the process of urbanization across the continent. This paper exploits a natural experiment, the abolition of South African pass ... Read more...

Jan David Bakker, Christopher Parsons and Ferdinand Rauch

01 June 2020

Journal article
Flooded cities

Does economic activity move away from areas that are at high risk of recurring shocks? We examine this question in the context of floods, which displaced more than 650 million people worldwide in the last 35 years. We st... Read more...

Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K.J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch

01 April 2020

Blog
How the Panama Canal reshaped the economic geography of the United States

In the early 20th century a ship travelling from San Francisco to New York or on to Europe first had to travel over 13,000 miles around the entirety of South America. That all changed in August of 1914 with the opening o... Read more...

Stephan Maurer and Ferdinand Rauch

27 July 2019

CEP discussion papers
Economic geography aspects of the Panama Canal

This paper studies how the opening of the Panama Canal in 1914 changed market access and influenced the economic geography of the United States. We compute shipment distances with and without the canal from each US count... Read more...

Stephan Maurer and Ferdinand Rauch

09 July 2019

Journal article
Task specialization in US cities from 1880 to 2000

We develop a new methodology for quantifying the tasks undertaken within occupations using over 3,000 verbs from more than 12,000 occupational descriptions in the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOTs). Using micro dat... Read more...

Guy Michaels, Ferdinand Rauch and Stephen J. Redding

01 June 2019

CentrePiece - The magazine of the Centre for Economic Performance
Trade and growth in the Iron Age

Stephan Maurer and colleagues investigate the growth effects of one of the first trade expansions in history: the crossing of the Mediterranean by the Phoenicians ... Read more...

Jan David Bakker, Stephan Maurer, Jorn-Steffen Pischke and Ferdinand Rauch

01 March 2019

CEP discussion papers
Of mice and merchants: trade and growth in the Iron Age

We study the causal connection between trade and development using one of the earliest massive trade expansions: the first systematic crossing of open seas in the Mediterranean during the time of the Phoenicians. We cons... Read more...

Jan David Bakker, Stephan Maurer, Jorn-Steffen Pischke and Ferdinand Rauch

12 July 2018

Journal article
A dissection of trading capital: trade in the aftermath of the fall of the Iron Curtain

We study trade in Europe after the fall of the Iron Curtain, and show that the countries of the former Austro-Hungarian monarchy trade significantly more with one another after 1989 than predicted by a standard gravity m... Read more...

Matthias Beestermoller and Ferdinand Rauch

29 June 2018

Journal article
Resetting the urban network: 117-2012

Do fixed geographic features such as coastlines and rivers determine town locations, or can historical events trap towns in unfavourable locations for centuries? We examine the effects on town locations of the collapse o... Read more...

Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch

01 February 2018

Journal article
The benefits of forced experimentation: striking evidence from the London underground network

We present evidence that a significant fraction of commuters on the London Underground do not travel on their optimal route. We show that a strike on the Underground, which forced many commuters to experiment with new ro... Read more...

Shaun Larcom, Ferdinand Rauch and Tim Willems

01 November 2017

SERC Discussion Papers
Planning Ahead for Better Neighborhoods: Long Run Evidence from Tanzania

What are the long run consequences of planning and providing basic infrastructure in neighborhoods, where people build their own homes? We study "Sites and Services" projects implemented in seven Tanzanian cities during ... Read more...

Neeraj Baruah, Amanda Dahlstrand, Guy Michaels, Dzhamilya Nigmatulina, Ferdinand Rauch and Tanner Regan

27 September 2017

Journal article
The geometry of the distance coefficient in gravity equations in international trade

Gravity equations in trade imply that trade flows are proportional to the size of a country and inversely proportional to distance. This paper develops the analogy of gravity in physics with gravity in trade and provides... Read more...

Ferdinand Rauch

01 November 2016

CentrePiece - The magazine of the Centre for Economic Performance
Flooded cities

Economic activity tends to return to flood-prone areas after floods rather than relocating to higher ground. What?s more, cities built in flood-prone areas are locking in exposure to flood risk for the long term. These a... Read more...

Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K.J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch

22 February 2016

CEP discussion papers
Flooded cities

Does economic activity relocate away from areas that are at high risk of recurring shocks? We examine this question in the context of floods, which are among the costliest and most common natural disasters. Over the past... Read more...

Adriana Kocornik-Mina, Thomas K.J. McDermott, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch

17 December 2015

CentrePiece - The magazine of the Centre for Economic Performance
The upside of London Tube strikes

In February 2014, strikes by staff on London's underground network enabled a sizeable fraction of commuters to find better routes, according to research by Shaun Larcom, Ferdinand Rauch and Tim Willems. Many commuters w... Read more...

Shaun Larcom, Ferdinand Rauch and Tim Willems

06 November 2015

CEP discussion papers
The benefits of forced experimentation: striking evidence from the London Underground network

We estimate that a significant fraction of commuters on the London underground do not travel their optimal route. Consequently, a tube strike (which forced many commuters to experiment with new routes) taught commuters a... Read more...

Shaun Larcom, Ferdinand Rauch and Tim Willems

21 September 2015

CentrePiece - The magazine of the Centre for Economic Performance
Can cities be trapped in bad locations?

After the fall of the Roman Empire, urban life in France became a shadow of its former self, but in Britain it completely disappeared. Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch use these contrasting experiences as a natural exper... Read more...

Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch

05 February 2014

CEP discussion papers
Resetting the urban network: 117-2012

Do locational fundamentals such as coastlines and rivers determine town locations, or can historical events trap towns in unfavourable locations for centuries? We examine the effects on town locations of the collapse of ... Read more...

Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch

27 November 2013

CEP discussion papers
Task Specialization in U.S. Cities from 1880-2000

We develop a new methodology for quantifying the tasks undertaken within occupations using 3,000 verbs from around 12,000 occupational descriptions in the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOTs). Using micro-data from t... Read more...

Guy Michaels, Ferdinand Rauch and Stephen J. Redding

05 February 2013

CEP discussion papers
Advertising Expenditure and Consumer Prices

This paper studies the effect of a change in the marginal costs of advertising on advertising expenditures of firms and consumer prices across industries. It makes use of a unique policy change that caused a decrease of ... Read more...

Ferdinand Rauch

26 August 2011

CEP discussion papers
Success and Failure of African Exporters

Using a novel dataset with transactions level exports data from four African countries (Malawi, Mali, Senegal and Tanzania), this paper uncovers evidence of a high degree of experimentation at the extensive margin associ... Read more...

Olivier Cadot, Leonardo Iacovone, Denisse Pierola and Ferdinand Rauch

01 June 2011

CEP discussion papers
Trade as an Engine of Creative Destruction: Mexican Experience with Chinese Competition

This paper exploits the surge in Chinese exports from 1994 to 2004 as a natural experiment to evaluate the effects of a unilateral low wage trade and competition shock to producers in Mexico. We find that this shock caus... Read more...

Leonardo Iacovone, Ferdinand Rauch and L. Alan Winters

01 September 2010

CEP discussion papers
Urbanisation and Structural Transformation

This paper presents new evidence on urbanization using sub-county data for the United States from 1880-2000 and municipality data for Brazil from 1970-2000. We show that the two central stylized features of population gr... Read more...

Guy Michaels, Ferdinand Rauch and Stephen J. Redding

01 October 2008

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