The Financial Times:
Weaker pound expected to reduce immigration
2 January 2017
Slower economic growth also predicted to deter new migrants
Question: ‘What do you think will happen to immigration?’
Stephen Machin, professor of economics, London School of Economics
It does not seems likely to change much and therefore not much impact to follow. A worry is that high skill immigration is slowed down by current events and attitudes.
John Van Reenen, professor of economics, MIT
Since negotiations will be still be going on after Article 50 triggered, there will not be much effect. Levels will probably remain high (net migration above 300k) until we exit in 2018 and more controls are then introduced. More EU immigrants will come in 2017 to avoid the 2018 controls. The reduction in immigration will reduce overall growth significantly and reduce GDP per capita a bit. The loss of deep access to Single Market due to ending free movement will be the main negative effect over long-run. Lower immigration will do nothing to help UK workers — see http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf
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