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LSE British Politics and Policy blog:
The aftermath of the Brexit vote - the verdict from a derided expert

2 August 2016

John Van Reenen was disappointed but not surprised by the UK's vote to Leave the EU. Whilst his own research predicts serious economic and political damage in the case of Brexit, he thought a Leave vote was a real possibility ever since David Cameron committed to a vote in 2013. In his last post as Director of LSE's Centre for Economic Performance, he gives his verdict on the campaigns, the media, politicians, and being a derided expert.

There are multiple reasons for the Brexit vote, but by far the most important one can be summarised in a single word: immigration. In the last few weeks before the vote, the Leave campaign was ruthless in focusing on our fears of foreigners. Sadly, with the exception of London, this has been shown time and time again to be a great vote winner all over the world. The British people have suffered tremendously since the financial crisis. The real wages of the average person fell by about 10 per cent between 2007 and 2015. This is not about inequality - poor, middle and rich have all lost out. It has been the longest sustained fall in average pay since the Great Depression and it has made people very angry with the establishment - and rightly so. As LSE's Professor Stephen Machin, the new Director of the Centre for Economic Performance has shown, the areas with the biggest falls in average wages were the places most likely to vote for Brexit.

This article was published by the LSE British Politics and Policy blog on August 2, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
The complete set of CEP Brexit Analysis papers is available in one publication. Download from here.

Related links
John Van Reenen webpage
Growth Programme webpage

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