LSE British Politics and Policy blog:
Who voted Leave: the characteristics of individuals mattered, but so did those of local areas
6 July 2016
The UK's vote to leave the EU on 23 June has induced much speculation about the factors behind people's decision. From opinion polls (e.g. the Ashcroft Polls) we know that the old and the less educated were more likely to vote Leave. But it's likely that voting was not just determined by individual characteristics but by those of local areas. Indeed, the main hypotheses put forward for the Leave vote are that it represents the reaction of those who have been left behind because of globalization (as Gordon Brown argued) or immigration.
This article reports the result of an exercise in which the vote share for Leave in the 380 areas of England, Wales and Scotland are regressed on a variety of area characteristics largely drawn from the census for 2011 and earlier decades. These characteristics are for the population as a whole - not for those eligible to vote (British citizens), registered to vote and actual voters in the referendum. Nevertheless the variables we use can explain 90 per cent of the variation in the vote share across areas.
This article was published by the LSE British Politics and Policy blog on July 6, 2016
Link to article here
Related links
Monica Langella webpage
Alan Manning webpage
Community Programme webpage