CEP News: The New York Times: Factbox: How did Osborne calculate his 'Brexit hit' for households?

The New York Times:
Factbox: How did Osborne calculate his 'Brexit hit' for households?

18 April 2016

British finance minister George Osborne said on Monday that a vote to leave the European Union could cost each household 4,300 pounds ($6,100) a year by the early 2030s.

Following is a look at how he reached this conclusion:
Few studies have looked at the long-term impact on productivity caused by a loss of trade. One, by the London School of Economics, suggested that if Britain reached a trade deal with the EU similar to Norway's, GDP would be 6.3 percent to 9.5 percent lower after 10 years, twice the hit assumed by the finance ministry.

This article was published online by The New York Times on April 18, 2016
Link to article here

Related publications
The BREXIT 2016 Policy Analysis Series from the Centre for Economic Performance can be found here

Related links
John Van Reenen webpage
Growth Programme webpage
Trade Programme webpage

The New York Times:Factbox: How did Osborne calculate his 'Brexit hit' for households?

The New York Times:
Factbox: How did Osborne calculate his 'Brexit hit' for households?