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The Financial Times:
Annual FT economists' survey: UK unemployment forecast to fall

1 January 2015

Britain will not run out of scope to create jobs in 2015 and will therefore not reach full employment, a slender majority of economists believe. But the number of people in work is likely to rise and unemployment will fall.

Q: Will the UK reach full employment in 2015? What would this look like?

John Van Reenen, Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics and Political Science
Unemployment should continue to fall, but I do not think we will reach full employment as a lot of spare capacity remains. Of course, full employment depends on structural/supply side changes in the labour market. Improving skills, especially around apprenticeships, keeping strong in-work incentives through the benefit system and in-work tax credits; making sure people can continue to work longer in their working lives, etc. Main thing is that we keep trying to reduce equilibrium unemployment rates.

Sir Christopher Pissarides, Regius Professor of Economics, LSE and Associate of the Macro Programme at the Centre for Economic Performance
Full employment is difficult to define in the new equilibrium but I expect unemployment to go down further. It might reach 5 per cent before inflationary pressures develop. Employment will be high. Overall the labour market will perform well in job creation.

This article was published as part of a series by The Financial Times on January 1, 2015
Link to article here

Related links
Christopher Pissarides webpage
Macro Programme webpage
John Van Reenen webpage
Productivity and Innovation Programme webpage

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