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CEP Election Analysis:
The complete Series, discussing research on some of the key policy battlegrounds of the 2010 General Election

4 May 2010

The 2010 General Election is shaping up to be the closest in living memory with a three-horse race between the main parties. It is also an extremely important election as there are tremendous economic problems facing the UK, and the victors of the election will face a series of major challenges as the economy tries to climb out of the deepest recession since the war.

At this critical juncture, it is important to give UK voters the hard information based on rigorous economic analysis that they need to make a reasoned decision on whom to vote for. There is a surfeit of spin from the parties, lobbyists, newspapers and pressure groups with axes to grind and agendas to push. At the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP), we want to give, to the best of our ability an informed and balanced view of the evidence on the major issues facing the electorate. The CEP has no 'corporate view' and each of the 11 election analyses expresses the independent views of the authors.

The mission of the CEP since it was established two decades ago has been to conduct world-class and policy-relevant research. We have drawn on our work and on the best of other research to identify and carefully interpret the facts.

We do not ask you to vote for any particular party, but we would urge you to vote; and to vote wisely considering some of the research evidence we present here.

CEP Election Analyses
Each analysis begins with a single page of bullet points summarising key findings followed by 5-10 pages of more in-depth briefing.

Dedicated readers are encouraged to follow the references at the end with even more information regularly updated from the CEP Election Analysis Site

You may also download CEP Election Analysis 2010 - The complete Series, discussing research on some of the key policy battlegrounds of the 2010 General Election (in Adobe PDF)

For further information, contact Romesh Vaitilingam on 07768 661095 (Email: romesh@vaitilingam.com).

The following summary draws out some key facts across all the election analyses.

Summary of Election Analyses

  • Debt and deficits: The greatest challenge facing the next government is how to reduce the budget deficit and stabilise net public debt, which currently stands at £890 billion (£14,500 per person). No party has outlined more than £10 billion of spending cuts when cuts of £37 billion will be needed by 2014 to halve the deficit. Read more...

  • Getting and spending: Before the recession, Labour increased taxes (by 2.3 per cent of GDP between 1997 and 2007) and spending (by 1.2 per cent of GDP). The higher spending on police, education and hospitals has reduced crime and improved schools and healthcare - but public sector productivity has fallen. Read more...

  • Financial regulation: The roots of the global crisis lie in the financial sector where governments were forced to bail out banks deemed 'too big to fail'. Bankruptcy risk must be made credible by reducing the systemic risk of large banks, for example, through steeply progressive taxes on bank size. Read more...

  • Inequality: Global forces such as technological change have pushed up inequality pressures. Labour's policies have constrained the growth of inequality, but not reduced its level. The richest 10 per cent have increased their share of income by £20 billion since 1998 - largely because of bankers' bonuses. Read more...

  • Jobs: Since the recession began, unemployment has risen from 5 per cent to 8 per cent - far less than expected given the huge fall in GDP (over 6 per cent). Unemployment rose faster for youths than adults, but this always happens in recessions. Although the New Deal has helped to contain unemployment, youth joblessness started rising from 2004 - four years before the recession began. Read more...

  • Education: A pupil premium for disadvantaged pupils would help raise standards. City academies and Swedish-style 'free schools' are unlikely to raise overall school performance. Read more...

  • Health: Since 1997, huge increases in NHS spending have helped reduce the inequality of health outcomes by social class. Reforms that increased competition improved hospital quality. Read more...

  • Crime: Crime has fallen since 1997, although 75 per cent of people think it is rising. More police and targeting prolific offenders have helped reduce crime, as have improved opportunities at the lower end of the labour market. Read more...

  • Immigration: The proportion of immigrants of working age rose from 8 per cent in 1995 to 14 per cent by 2009. Immigrants are less likely to be in social housing than the UK-born and are, on average, younger and better educated. Read more...

  • Urban renewal: There is no convincing evidence that area-based initiatives, such as the New Deal for Communities, have reduced differences between rich and poor areas. Read more...

  • Environment. In line with the Kyoto protocol, compared with 1990, UK emissions have been reduced by more than 12.5 per cent since 1990. But the UK has failed to meet its own target of a 20 per cent cut by 2010. To meet the targets efficiently, carbon prices must rise. Read more...
Download CEP Election Analysis 2010 - The complete Series, discussing research on some of the key policy battlegrounds of the 2010 General Election (in Adobe PDF)