Results

CEP discussion paper

A wartime labor market: the case of Ukraine

Wars disrupt labor markets, yet systematic evidence on how markets for labor services operate during conflicts is almost entirely absent. Ukraine is a rare exception: despite the full-scale Russian invasion, timely data ...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

The US-China trade war created jobs (elsewhere)

In June 2016, Donald Trump justified the protectionist policies during his first administration as "the quickest way to bring our jobs back to our country". This column shows that while the trade war with China failed to...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Trade with nominal rigidities: understanding the unemployment and welfare effects of the China shock

We present a dynamic quantitative trade and migration model that incorporates downward nominal wage rigidities and show how this framework can generate changes in unemployment and labor participation that match those unc...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Accounting for the evolution of China's production and trade patterns

This paper studies the evolution of China's production and trade patterns during its integration into the global economy. We document and explain new facts concerning changes in production and exports at the industry and...Read more...

Journal article

Oxford Economic Papers:

Economic geography aspects of the Panama Canal

This paper studies how the opening of the Panama Canal in 1914 changed counties? market potential and influenced the economic geography of the USA. We compute shipment effective distances with and without the canal from ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Opposing firm-level responses to the China shock: horizontal competition versus vertical relationships

We decompose the "China shock" into two components that induce different adjustments for firms exposed to Chinese exports: a horizontal shock affecting firms selling goods that compete with similar imported Chinese goods...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Import liberalization as export destruction? Evidence from the United States

How does import protection affect export performance? In trade models with scale economies, import liberalization can reduce an industry's exports by cutting domestic production. We find this export destruction mechanism...Read more...

Journal article

Review of Economics and Statistics:

Trade and uncertainty

We offer a new explanation as to why international trade is so volatile in response to economic shocks. Our approach combines the idea of uncertainty shocks with international trade. Firms order inputs from home and fore...Read more...

CEP industrial strategy paper

Has the Financial Crisis Undermined Credit Reallocation in the United Kingdom?

The global financial crisis and its aftermath heightened awareness of the role of credit frictions in affecting aggregate economic performance. An important question is whether capital is being allocated to its most prod...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Trade shocks and credit reallocation

The effect of trade liberalization on welfare and economic activity remains one of the most important questions in economics. The literature identifies a number of key determinants that reduce the potential gains from tr...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Economic geography aspects of the Panama Canal

This paper studies how the opening of the Panama Canal in 1914 changed market access and influenced the economic geography of the United States. We compute shipment distances with and without the canal from each US count...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Trade and uncertainty

We offer a new explanation as to why international trade is so volatile in response to economic shocks. Our approach combines the uncertainty shock idea of Bloom (2009) with a model of international trade, extending the ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Trade as an Engine of Creative Destruction: Mexican Experience with Chinese Competition

This paper exploits the surge in Chinese exports from 1994 to 2004 as a natural experiment to evaluate the effects of a unilateral low wage trade and competition shock to producers in Mexico. We find that this shock caus...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Talking Less and Moving the Market More: Is this the Recipe for Monetary Policy Effectiveness? Evidence from the ECB and the Fed

This paper examines and compares the communication strategies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, and their effectiveness. First we do a comparative study exercise. We find that on monetary policy commi...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The Impact of Central Bank Announcements on Asset Prices in Real Time: Testing the Efficiency of the Euribor Futures Market

This paper examines the effect of European Central Bank communication on the price discovery process in the Euribor futures market using a new tick-by-tick dataset. First, we show that two pieces of news systematically h...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Is ECB Communication Effective?

In its Monthly Bulletin of November 2002, the European Central Bank (ECB) stated that the monthly press conference held by its President represents one of its most important communication channels and that it provides a ...Read more...

Journal article

The Review of Economic Studies:

Job creation and job destruction in the theory of unemployment

In this paper we model a job-specific shock process in the matching model of unemployment with non-cooperative wage behaviour. We obtain endogenous job creation and job destruction processes and study their properties. W...Read more...