Results

CEP discussion paper

Defense promotion and industrial development

Major economies are rearming, and rearmament is itself industrial policy. I ask whether defense promotion?especially innovation policy?can drive industrial development beyond the defense sector. I synthesize evidence on ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Counting the costs: a quantitative assessment of Brexit?s effect on UK regional economies

This paper examines the implications of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) using a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model. Unlike previous studies that primarily projected potential impacts of Brexit base...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of the European Economic Association:

Innovation union: costs and benefits of innovation policy coordination

What is the scope for international cooperation in innovation policy in economies closely integrated via trade? We address this question by building a two-region innovation-driven growth model with endogenous technology ...Read more...

Journal article

Resources Policy:

The EV transition: the impact of the EU battery directive on critical material supply, recycling and battery costs

Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are central to the European Union's (EU) Net Zero strategies. Yet, rising regulatory pressures and geopolitical tensions have increased the risk of supply chain bottlenecks for strategic and ...Read more...

External report

Innovation in Green Technologies

Demand for cleaner, more efficient technologies is transforming global markets and with it, the geography of innovation. Over the last 15 years, markets for new energy technologies and climate resilience have outpaced gr...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Inequality:

Equivalence scales revisited: evidence from subjective data

Equivalence scales (ES) are widely used to compare income levels across different households. Yet the commonly used OECD and square-root scales rely on assumptions about household economies of scale that lack robust empi...Read more...

Blog

LSE Politics and Policy:

The UK deals with India, USA and the EU are symbolic

The Labour Government is on a trade deal spree. After signing a free trade agreement with India, the UK made a pact with the US to remove some of the tariffs on UK car and aerospace exports, and finally a new agreement w...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The global effects of carbon border adjustment mechanisms

Climate change poses a collective action problem: individual countries bear the costs of carbon regulation, while the benefits are shared globally. Carbon border adjustment mechanisms (CBAMs), which are currently being i...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

New approaches to measure (increasing) concentration in Europe

Concentration (the share of a market's output produced by its largest firms) is a key proxy for measuring market competition. This column introduces a cross-country dataset to measure concentration at the industry level ...Read more...

Blog

EGC Voices in Development:

Development Dialogue: How can emerging economies break free from the sidelines of global trade? (podcast)

This episode of Development Dialogues addresses how lower-income countries have engaged with global trade. How have their approaches to trade differed based on their underlying institutional and economic structure? What ...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

The EU has a transformative mechanism to reduce carbon leakage, but challenges loom ahead

When companies face steep carbon prices in a country, they often move production to places with lower or no pricing. To address this problem, the European Union created the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. But, for de...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

A political disconnect? Evidence from voting on EU trade agreements

We study votes of Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) on the approval of free trade agreements (FTAs). Against widespread Eurosceptic arguments, we find that MEPs are responsive to the interests of their electorate...Read more...

Blog

Promarket:

Does Domestic Competition Help EU Firms Compete Abroad?

In a survey of nearly 400 European firms that export abroad, Elena Argentesi, Livia De Simone, Stephan Paetz, Vincenzo Scrutinio find that most firms believe that competition forces them to produce cheaper and higher qua...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Immigration and political realignment

This paper examines how immigration reshapes political landscapes, centring on the influx of immigrants from the EU's 2004 enlargement and its implications for the UK. I use a new variation in exposure to immigration bas...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Global Britain has failed - what next?

The vision of post-Brexit Britain was one of international trade deals that would propel the country into a new era of prosperity. That vision of "Global Britain" is now dead. Thomas Sampson argues that the only viable a...Read more...

Journal article

Economics of Education Review:

The impact of incentivizing training on students? outcomes

This paper studies the effect on students? scores of incentivizing in-service teacher training in a system that conditions teacher promotions to in-service training take-up. In Ecuador, teachers need to pass a compulsory...Read more...

Chapter

Income inequality before, during, and after the transition in central and eastern Europe

in The Oxford Handbook of Post-Socialist Economies

This chapter explores the income inequality in Central and Eastern Europe before, during, and after the transition. It argues that the fall of communism and the transition to a market economy in Eastern Europe were landm...Read more...

CentrePiece article

How Brexit has raised UK food prices

Some products imported to the UK from the European Union have been more affected by the post-Brexit trading rules than others. Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh De Lyon, Luisa Opitz and Dilan Yang find that leaving th...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Trade disruptions in the wake of Brexit

A dramatic fall in the value of UK imports from the European Union relative to the rest of the world occurred when the post-Brexit Trade and Cooperation Agreement came into effect. What's more, according to research by R...Read more...

Blog

Economics Observatory:

Ukraine's accession to the European Union: what difference would it make?

Existing agreements between Ukraine and the EU have already promoted substantial trade flows. Accession would have bigger implications for freedom of movement of capital and workers - investment inflows and migration out...Read more...

Journal article

Energy for Sustainable Development :

Assessing reliability of electricity grid services from space: the case of Uttar Pradesh, India

While most households around the world have access to electricity, the number of hours per day when the grid supplies them with adequate voltage can be low. Improving the reliability of electricity is crucial to make pro...Read more...

External report

Post-Brexit imports, supply chains, and the effect on consumer prices

This report documents the decrease in imports and shows how the patterns of imports vary across sectors following the UK's departure from the Single Market and Customs Union at the end of 2020. The authors, Jan David Bak...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Brexit: the major trade disruption came after the UK-EU agreement took effect in 2021

The impact of Brexit on UK trade is a highly contested topic. Rebecca Freeman, Kalina Manova, Thomas Prayer, and Thomas Sampson summarise the findings of new research on how Brexit has affected the UK's goods trade with ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

UK trade in the wake of Brexit

This paper studies the impact of Brexit on the UK's trade with the EU relative to its trade with the rest of the world. We find no evidence that uncertainty and anticipation effects led to a significant decline in relati...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management:

Searching for carbon leaks in multinational companies

Does a unilateral climate change policy cause companies to shift the location of production, thereby creating carbon leakage? In this paper, we analyze the effect of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) o...Read more...

Journal article

International Economic Review:

The Brexit vote, inflation and UK living standards

This article studies how voting for Brexit affected living standards in the United Kingdom. Using heterogeneity in exposure to import costs across product groups, we analyze how the depreciation of sterling caused by the...Read more...

Journal article

International Journal of Manpower:

Eastern European immigrants in the UK

The paper aims at examining wage developments among Eastern European immigrants vs UK natives before and after the 2004 enlargement by measuring the extent to which inter-group wage differentials are explainable by these...Read more...

CEP occasional paper

Prices and inflation in the UK - A new dataset

This paper presents a new dataset of 41 million UK consumer prices, providing facts on the frequency, size and timing of price changes between 1988 and 2020. The micro data are the `price quotes? of individual consumer p...Read more...

Journal article

European Economic Review:

All these worlds are yours, except India: the effectiveness of cash subsidies to export in Nepal

This paper studies the impact of a `textbook? ad-valorem export subsidy on firm-level export performance. The Cash Incentive Scheme for Exports (CISE) program offered by the government of Nepal offers a cash subsidy to f...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

All these worlds are yours, except India: the effectiveness of cash subsidies to export in Nepal

This paper studies the impact of a `textbook' ad-valorem export subsidy on firm-level export performance. The Cash Incentive Scheme for Exports (CISE) program offered by the government of Nepal offers a cash subsidy to f...Read more...

Blog

LSE Brexit:

Three years on: the UK is paying a high economic price for its decision to leave the EU

How has the Leave vote affected the UK economy, ask Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson (LSE) in this second of two blogs based on the CEP Election Analysis briefing on Brexit. It summarizes CEP research on how the referend...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Brexit will leave the UK worse off economically in all scenarios

Since the UK voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, Brexit has dominated UK politics and economic policy. Three and a half years after the referendum, the UK is yet to leave the EU, there is no certainty over if...Read more...

Blog

LSE Brexit:

Economic consequences of Brexit are overwhelmingly negative

The economic consequences of Brexit are overwhelmingly negative, estimate Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson (LSE). The more the UK distances itself from the EU?s economic institutions and policies, the greater will be the...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Brexit economics

Since the UK voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, Brexit has dominated UK politics and economic policy. Three and a half years after the referendum, the UK is yet to leave the EU, there is no certainty over if...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Eurosceptic votes are less likely when EU interventions visibly boost local job markets

Eurosceptic votes are less likely when EU interventions visibly boost local job markets Anti-systemic political movements have emerged in recent years in a large number of countries across the globe. These parties genera...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Innovation union: costs and benefits of innovation policy coordination

We build a two-region endogenous growth model to analyse the gains from innovation policy cooperation in an economic union. The model is calibrated to two blocks of the EU: the old and new members. R&D subsidy coordinati...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

Trade and worker deskilling: how the post-Brexit pound has hurt Britain?s workers

The unexpected result of the Brexit referendum, working through the rapid depreciation of the sterling, has hurt British workers. New CEP work shows that the big drop in the value of the pound caused a rise in import pri...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Searching for carbon leaks in multinational companies

Does unilateral climate change policy cause companies to shift the location of production, thereby creating carbon leakage? In this paper, we analyse the effect of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) on ...Read more...

CentrePiece article

The price of Brexit

Writing in the summer 2018 issue of CentrePiece magazine, Thomas Sampson notes that the full economic consequences of the UK?s leave vote will not be realised for many years. But two years after the referendum, we can al...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

The Brexit vote, inflation and UK living standards

The vote to leave the European Union (EU) was an unanticipated shock to the UK economy that increased uncertainty and reduced the country?s expected future openness to trade, investment and immigration with the EU. Our r...Read more...

Journal article

National Institute Economic Review:

Local economic effects of Brexit

This paper studies local economic impacts of the increases in trade barriers associated with Brexit. Predictions of the local impact of Brexit are presented under two different scenarios, soft and hard Brexit, which are ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Goods and factor market integration: a quantitative assessment of the EU enlargement

The economic effects from labor market integration are crucially affected by the extent to which countries are open to trade. In this paper we build a multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model with trade in goods a...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Brexit as Climate Policy: The Agenda on Energy and the Environment

The Great Recession and a sluggish economic recovery were instrumental in meeting the legally binding climate change targets that the UK has set for itself. But without more drastic policy interventions, it is unlikely t...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Brexit and the UK Economy

This general election is pitched as the `Brexit Election?, one that will give the incoming government a mandate to negotiate the terms of the UK?s exit from the European Union (EU). The Conservatives and Labour have both...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Immigration and the UK Economy

Immigration to the UK has grown a lot over the last 20 years and a significant fraction of this growth has been from other EU countries, especially after 2004 and the accession of the eight East European countries (`A8?)...Read more...

Journal article

Oxford Review of Economic Policy:

A hitch-hiker's guide to post-Brexit trade negotiations: options and principles

Brexit will require the UK to negotiate new trade arrangements with the EU. After summarizing the main options for future UK-EU trade relations, this article reviews the purpose of trade agreements. We highlight that tra...Read more...

Journal article

IZA Journal of Labor and Development:

Pathways from school to work in the developing world

This paper uses novel micro data from the ILO-STWT surveys to provide evidence on the duration, endpoint, and determinants of the transition from school to work in a sample of 23 low- and middle-income countries around t...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Who voted Leave?

If EU immigration had remained at its 1991 level, the Leave vote share may have been considerably lower. That is one of the conclusions of CEP research by Monica Langella and Professor Alan Manning, which explores the ef...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Brexit and the UK labour market

Following the referendum vote to leave the European Union, the UK faces a trade-off between retaining access to the Single Market and restricting free movement of labour. Barbara Petrongolo considers the likely impact of...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of International Economics:

The price of development: The Penn?Balassa?Samuelson effect revisited

The Penn?Balassa?Samuelson effect is the stylized fact about the positive correlation between cross-country price level and per-capita income. This paper provides evidence that the price?income relation is actually non-l...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Who voted Leave: the characteristics of individuals mattered, but so did those of local areas

Individual demographics had a huge effect in determining the outcome of the referendum, but the characteristics of local areas mattered as well, explain Monica Langella and Alan Manning. Immigration, the decline in manuf...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

BREXIT 2016: policy analysis from the Centre for Economic Performance

On June 23rd, the British people will vote in a referendum over whether or not to remain in the European Union. It is the most important vote that most of us will have in our lifetimes. And one that will have major reper...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Brexit: the final assessment

John Van Reenen summarises the economic impact of a vote to leave the EU....Read more...

CentrePiece article

Why immigration is no reason to leave the EU

A major argument of Brexit campaigners is that leaving the European Union would give the UK more control over the flow of immigrants, who they claim hurt the jobs and pay of native-born workers. CEP research shows that E...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Foreign investors love Britain - but Brexit would end the affair

Investment from overseas brings many benefits to the UK economy, including higher pay and productivity. According to CEP research, leaving the European Union could lead to a fall in inward foreign direct investment in th...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Brexit: the impact on UK trade and living standards

For over two years, a CEP research team has been studying the likely impact on the living standards of UK households of a referendum vote to leave the European Union. The first of three reports summarised here focuses on...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

Brexit and the impact of immigration on the UK

A reduction in immigration from the European Union (EU) following a vote for Brexit would not lead to any improvement in living standards for those born in the UK. Cuts in EU immigration would not offset the big fall in ...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

The UK Treasury analysis of 'The long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives': CEP Commentary

Overly cautious assumptions in the Treasury?s recent report on the long-run consequences for the UK economy of leaving the European Union (EU) mean that it has probably underestimated the economic costs. That is one of t...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK

The third in a series of Brexit reports from the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP), examines how leaving the EU would affect UK incomes through changes in foreign investment in the UK. Leaving the European Union (EU)...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

The question is not whether Brexit will cost the UK in economic terms but how much

For over two years, a research team at the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) has been studying the likely impact of the UK leaving the European Union. Their latest report focuses on the impact of `Brexit? through cha...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

The economic consequences of leaving the EU will depend on what policies the UK adopts following Brexit. But lower trade due to reduced integration with EU countries is likely to cost the UK economy far more than is gain...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

How have EU's trade agreements impacted consumers?

Over the past two decades, the European Commission has negotiated a number of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) which contain both traditional elements of bilateral tariff reductions, as well as additional liberalisation meas...Read more...

Journal article

The Review of Economics and Statistics:

Environmental policy and directed technological change: evidence from the European carbon market

This paper investigates the impact of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) on technological change, exploiting installations level inclusion criteria to estimate the System's causal impact on firms' paten...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

Life after Brexit : what are the UK?s options outside the European Union?

Suppose the UK votes to leave the European Union (EU): what happens next? This report outlines some of the options for the UK outside the EU and discusses the costs and benefits of each alternative....Read more...

CEP election analysis

#ElectionEconomics: The Research Evidence on Key Issues for Voters in the 2015 UK General Election

Please see the CEP #ElectionEconomics report(Paper 1)and the Executive Summary (Paper 2) that cover all the election 2015 briefings, discussing the research evidence on 15 of the UK's key policy battlegrounds: immigratio...Read more...

Blog

LSE European Politics and Policy Blog:

Leaving the European Union would likely have a significant negative impact on the UK?s economy

How would leaving the EU affect the UK's economy? Gianmarco Ottaviano, Joao Paulo Pessoa, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen outline findings from a new report on the economic consequences of a Brexit. They indicate that...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Immigration and the UK labour market

David Metcalf, chair of the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), outlines recent changes in the regulatory framework for immigrant workers....Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Industry Compensation Under Relocation Risk: A Firm-Level Analysis of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme

When industry compensation is offered to prevent relocation of regulated firms, efficiency requires that payments be distributed across firms so as to equalize marginal relocation probabilities, weighted by the damage ca...Read more...

CentrePiece article

The polluter-doesn't-pay principle

By granting discounts on environmental taxes to heavy polluting firms, the government is missing out on significant tax revenues and achieving considerably less in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. That is the central c...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Environmental Policy and Directed Technological Change: Evidence from the European Carbon Market

This paper investigates the impact of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on technological change. We exploit installations-level inclusion criteria to estimate the impact of the EU ETS on firms patenting. We find t...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The Penn-Belassa-Samuelson Effect in Developing Countries: Price and Income Revisited

It is conventional wisdom that richer countries have a higher price level than poorer countries. This paper provides evidence that the price-income relationship is non-linear and that it turns negative, or at best flat, ...Read more...

CEP policy analysis

Still time to reclaim the European Union Emissions Trading System for the European tax payer

The criteria proposed by the EU Commission to identify industries that will receive free emission permits in the third phase of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) are not restrictive enough. Evidence fr...Read more...

Journal article

The Economic Journal:

The part-time pay penalty for women in Britain

Women in Britain who work part-time have, on average, hourly earnings about 25% less than that of women working full-time. This gap has widened greatly over the past 30 years. This article tries to explain this part-time...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The Maastricht Convergence Criteria and Optimal Monetary Policy for the EMU Accession Countries

The EMU accession countries are obliged to fulfill the Maastricht convergence criteria prior to entering the EMU. What should be the optimal monetary policy satisfying these criteria? To answer this question, the paper p...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Gross Worker Flows in the Presence of Informal Labor Markets. The Mexican Experience 1987-2002

This paper applies recent advances in the study of labor market dynamics to a representative developing country with a large unregulated of ?informal? sector, Mexico. It finds, first, that the formal salaried sector show...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Capital Mobility and Unemployment Dynamics: Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries

We use a panel of 20 OECD countries over a 30-year period to estimate the implications of international capital mobility for unemployment. We find that the increase in capital flows since the mid1980s has contributed to ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The Part-Time Pay Penalty

In 2003, women working part-time in the UK earned, on average, 22% less than women working full-time. Compared to women who work FT, PT women are more likely to have low levels of education, to be in a couple, to have yo...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Are European Labor Markets As Awful As All That?

?The standard explanation of why advanced Europe has generated less work per adult than the US is that something is seriously amiss with EU labor markets. The theme of this piece is simple. Compared to an ideal competiti...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Spatial Disparities in Developing Countries: Cities, Regions and International Trade

Spatial inequality in developing countries is due to the natural advantages of some regions relative to others and to the presence of agglomeration forces, leading to clustering of activity. This paper reviews and develo...Read more...