Results

CEP discussion paper

Explaining the predictive performance of police in cases of domestic abuse

Police in England and Wales are asked to predict the likelihood of serious recidivism in domestic abuse cases, with little support beyond a flawed questionnaire. To analyze their decisions, we first develop methods to de...Read more...

CEP policy analysis

Domestic abuse: improving risk assessment and response by the police (policy brief)

Domestic abuse remains a pervasive challenge worldwide. According to data from the Office for National Statistics, domestic abuse affects one in five people aged 16 and above in the UK. In 2021, the then Conservative gov...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The global effects of carbon border adjustment mechanisms

Climate change poses a collective action problem: individual countries bear the costs of carbon regulation, while the benefits are shared globally. Carbon border adjustment mechanisms (CBAMs), which are currently being i...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Police workload linked to victim statement withdrawals

Partners or family members are responsible for nearly half of the women killed each year in the UK, and many of these deaths follow long periods of domestic abuse. Yet in recent years, the rate of statement withdrawal by...Read more...

Journal article

Cambridge Journal of Evidence-Based Policing:

Can social media reach isolated domestic abuse victims? Evidence from a randomized control trial during the Covid-19 lockdown

Research Questions Can social media reach isolated domestic abuse victims? Secondly, does providing victims with more information and a safer means of contacting police change their likelihood of domestic abuse reporting...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics and Policy:

Higher workload for police officers correlates with victims withdrawing statements

In the UK, partners or family members are responsible for nearly half of all female homicides. But there is an increasing rate of statement withdrawal from victims in high-risk domestic abuse cases. Tom Kirchmaier and Ek...Read more...

Journal article

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics:

Measuring absolute income mobility: lessons from North America and Europe

We use linked parent-child administrative data for five countries in North America and Europe, as well as detailed survey data for two more, to investigate methodological challenges in the estimation of absolute income m...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Public Economics:

Football, alcohol, and domestic abuse

We study the role of alcohol and emotions in explaining the dynamics in domestic abuse following major football games. We match confidential and uniquely detailed individual call data from Greater Manchester with the tim...Read more...

Journal article

American Economic Review:

Globalization and pandemics

We provide theory and evidence on the relationship between globalization and pandemics. Business travel facilitates trade and travel leads to human interactions that transmit disease. Trade-motivated travel generates an ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Criminal charges, risk assessment and violent recidivism in cases of domestic abuse

Domestic abuse is a pervasive global problem. Here we analyze two approaches to reducing violent DA recidivism. One involves charging the perpetrator with a crime; the other provides protective services to the victim on ...Read more...

CEP Insights

Crime

What can economics tell us about crime? Economists have discovered that young people who leave school during a recession are more likely to end up in prison than those who enter the labour market when the economy is buoy...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Football, alcohol and domestic abuse

Reports of domestic abuse rise after football matches. Ria Ivandic, Tom Kirchmaier and Neus Torres-Blas find that binge drinking is the key factor - with alcohol-linked violence against live-in partners happening more of...Read more...

Blog

English Premier League podcast: EPLpod:

Football, alcohol and domestic abuse

Domestic abuse increases following football games - and this increase is driven by alcohol-related abuse, a new study from the London School of Economics and Political Science finds. The research from the LSE's Centre fo...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Football, alcohol and domestic abuse

We study the role of alcohol and emotions in explaining the dynamics in domestic abuse following major football games. We match confidential and uniquely detailed individual call data from Greater Manchester with the tim...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Empirical Legal Studies:

Comparing conventional and machine-learning approaches to risk assessment in domestic abuse cases

We compare predictions from a conventional protocol-based approach to risk assessment with those based on a machine-learning approach. We first show that the conventional predictions are less accurate than, and have simi...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

Disunited Kingdom? Brexit, trade and Scottish independence

Scotland is a small, open economy that mostly trades with the rest of the UK. There is around six times more trade between Scotland and the rest of the UK than predicted by a standard gravity trade model. Scottish indepe...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Changing patterns of domestic abuse during Covid-19 lockdown

The effects of preventing a COVID-19 health crisis have had unintended consequences on domestic abuse (DA) victimization. We contribute to the literature on domestic abuse in lockdown by providing insight on how changing...Read more...

CentrePiece article

In brief... Tackling domestic violence using machine learning

Artificial intelligence could help to protect victims of domestic violence, according to research by Jeffrey Grogger, Ria Ivandic and Tom Kirchmaier...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Domestic abuse in times of quarantine

Crime economists Ria Ivandic and Tom Kirchmaier look at data on domestic abuse calls to the police in London....Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Comparing conventional and machine-learning approaches to risk assessment in domestic abuse cases

We compare predictions from a conventional protocol-based approach to risk assessment with those based on a machine-learning approach. We first show that the conventional predictions are less accurate than, and have simi...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Brexit will leave the UK worse off economically in all scenarios

Since the UK voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, Brexit has dominated UK politics and economic policy. Three and a half years after the referendum, the UK is yet to leave the EU, there is no certainty over if...Read more...

Blog

LSE Brexit:

Economic consequences of Brexit are overwhelmingly negative

The economic consequences of Brexit are overwhelmingly negative, estimate Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson (LSE). The more the UK distances itself from the EU?s economic institutions and policies, the greater will be the...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Brexit economics

Since the UK voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, Brexit has dominated UK politics and economic policy. Three and a half years after the referendum, the UK is yet to leave the EU, there is no certainty over if...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Perspectives:

The economic consequences of family policies: lessons from a century of legislation in high-income countries

By the early 21st century, most high-income countries have put into effect a host of generous and virtually gender-neutral parental leave policies and family benefits, with the multiple goals of gender equity, higher fer...Read more...

Journal article

The Economic Journal:

Unemployment and domestic violence: theory and evidence

Does rising unemployment really increase domestic violence as many commentators expect? The contribution of this article is to examine how changes in unemployment affect the incidence of domestic abuse. Theory predicts t...Read more...

Journal article

The Economic Journal:

Income and population growth

Do populations grow as countries become richer? In this study we estimate the effects on population growth of shocks to national income that are plausibly exogenous and unlikely to be driven by technological change. For ...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Unemployment and domestic violence

Contrary to popular belief, the incidence of domestic violence in Britain does not seem to have risen during the recession. But according to research by Jonathan Wadsworth and colleagues, men and women have experienced d...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Unemployment and domestic violence: theory and evidence

Is unemployment the overwhelming determinant of domestic violence that many commentators expect it to be? The contribution of this paper is to examine, theoretically and empirically, how changes in unemployment affect th...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Is the International Border Effect Larger than the Domestic Border Effect? Evidence from U.S. Trade

Many studies have found that international borders represent large barriers to trade. But how do international borders compare to domestic border barriers? We investigate international and domestic border barriers in a u...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Discussion Sessions Coupled with Microfinancing May Enhance the Roles of Women in Household Decision-Making in Burundi

The empowerment of women within households remains a major issue around the world including in Africa. We have conducted a study in Burundi coupling discussion sessions with microfinancing to determine if they enhance th...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Capital Flows and Asset Prices

After liberalizing international transactions of financial assets, many countries experience large swings in asset prices, capital flows, and aggregate production. This paper studies how the adjustment to capital account...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Was Germany Ever United? Evidence from Intra- and International Trade 1885-1933

This paper asks whether Germany was ever an economically integrated area. I explore the geography of trade costs in a new data set of about 40,000 observations on regional trade flows within and across the borders of Ger...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The Determinants Of Cross-Border Equity Flows

We apply a new approach to a new panel data set on bilateral gross cross-border equity flows between 14 countries, 1989-96. The remarkably good results have strong implications for theories of asset trade. We find that t...Read more...