Results

Blog

Vox EU:

The battle for trade currency dominance: The dollar vs the renminbi in Argentina

The US dollar has traditionally dominated the invoicing of international trade. But could other currencies one day replace it? This column examines a unique policy experiment in Argentina in 2023. Amid a severe dollar sh...Read more...

Blog

Promarket:

Does Domestic Competition Help EU Firms Compete Abroad?

In a survey of nearly 400 European firms that export abroad, Elena Argentesi, Livia De Simone, Stephan Paetz, Vincenzo Scrutinio find that most firms believe that competition forces them to produce cheaper and higher qua...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Brexit and investment

In 2016, the UK voted to leave the European Union and growth in UK manufacturing investment ground to a halt. This paper uses administrative trade data to investigate the causal relationship between these events. We expl...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of the European Economic Association:

Vehicle currency pricing and exchange rate pass-through

Using detailed firm-level transactions data for UK imports, we find that invoicing in a vehicle currency is pervasive, with more than half of the transactions in our sample invoiced in neither sterling nor the exporter?s...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Common Market Studies:

The effect on foreign direct investment of membership in the European Union

This article explores the impact of EU membership on foreign direct investment (FDI). It analyses empirically how the effects of such deep integration differ from other forms and investigates what drives these effects. U...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Place-based policies and spatial disparities across European cities

Spatial disparities in income levels and worklessness in the European Union are profound, persistent and may be widening. We describe disparities across metropolitan regions and discuss theories and empirical evidence th...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Brexit will leave the UK worse off economically in all scenarios

Since the UK voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, Brexit has dominated UK politics and economic policy. Three and a half years after the referendum, the UK is yet to leave the EU, there is no certainty over if...Read more...

Blog

LSE Brexit:

Economic consequences of Brexit are overwhelmingly negative

The economic consequences of Brexit are overwhelmingly negative, estimate Swati Dhingra and Thomas Sampson (LSE). The more the UK distances itself from the EU?s economic institutions and policies, the greater will be the...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Brexit economics

Since the UK voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, Brexit has dominated UK politics and economic policy. Three and a half years after the referendum, the UK is yet to leave the EU, there is no certainty over if...Read more...

Journal article

Economica:

Who got the Brexit blues? The effect of Brexit on subjective Wellbeing in the UK

We use the 2015?16 waves of the UK Household Longitudinal Study (Understanding Society) to look at subjective wellbeing around the time of the June 2016 EU membership Referendum in the UK (Brexit). We employ measures of ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Vehicle currency pricing and exchange rate pass-through

Using detailed firm-level transactions data for UK imports, we find that invoicing in a vehicle currency is pervasive, with more than half of transactions in our sample invoiced in neither sterling nor the exporter's cur...Read more...

Journal article

European Journal of Political Economy:

Who voted for Brexit? Individual and regional data combined

Previous analyses of the 2016 Brexit referendum used region-level data or small samples based on polling data. The former might be subject to ecological fallacy and the latter might suffer from small-sample bias. We use ...Read more...

Journal article

ILR Review:

The impact of acquiring unrestricted work authorization on Romanian and Bulgarian migrants in the United Kingdom

When Romania and Bulgaria (the so-called A2 countries) joined the European Union in 2007, the United Kingdom imposed temporary restrictions on the employment and welfare entitlements of A2 citizens that lasted until Janu...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Currency unions, trade and heterogeneity

How do trade costs affect international trade? This paper offers a new approach. We rely on a flexible gravity equation that predicts variable trade cost elasticities, both across and within country pairs. We apply this ...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Brexit: the economics of international disintegration

Pro-Brexit rhetoric mixes up two distinct interpretations of what made people vote to Leave the European Union ? and they have very different policy implications. As Thomas Sampson explains, those voters wanting to recla...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

Cohesion Policy Incentives for Collaborative Industrial Research. The Evaluation of a Smart Specialisation Forerunner Programme

This paper evaluates a program of subsidies for Collaborative Industrial Research (co-) funded by the EU Cohesion Policy in Italy mobilizing over 1 billion euros. This program anticipated in the 2007-2013 funding cycle s...Read more...

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper

One or Many Cohesion Policies of the European Union? On the Diverging Impacts of Cohesion Policy across Member States

Do regions in all Member States (MSs) of the European Union (EU) benefit from Cohesion Policy? Are regional impacts persistently diversified across countries? In order to answer these questions this paper explores how th...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Economic integration, foreign investment and international trade: the effects of membership of the European Union

This paper investigates the importance of economic integration in simultaneously fostering foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade. These have rarely been analyzed jointly using contemporary econometric m...Read more...

Journal article

Economic Policy:

Who voted for Brexit? A comprehensive district-level analysis

On 23 June 2016, the British electorate voted to leave the European Union (EU). We analyse vote and turnout shares across 380 local authority areas in the United Kingdom. We find that exposure to the EU in terms of immig...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Perspectives:

Brexit: the economics of international disintegration

On June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom held a referendum on its membership in the European Union. Although most of Britain's establishment backed remaining in the European Union, 52 percent of voters disagreed and handed a...Read more...

Journal article

Economic Policy:

The costs and benefits of leaving the EU: trade effects

This paper estimates the welfare effects of Brexit in the medium to long run, focusing on trade and fiscal transfers.We use a standard quantitative general equilibrium trade model with many countries and sectors and trad...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Brexit: the economics of international disintegration

This paper reviews the literature on the likely economic consequences of Brexit and considers the lessons of the Brexit vote for the future of European and global integration. Brexit will make the United Kingdom poorer b...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Brexit as Climate Policy: The Agenda on Energy and the Environment

The Great Recession and a sluggish economic recovery were instrumental in meeting the legally binding climate change targets that the UK has set for itself. But without more drastic policy interventions, it is unlikely t...Read more...

Journal article

Applied Economics Letters:

Industrial structure and preferences for a common currency ? the case of the EURO referendum in Sweden

Attitudes for a common currency differ from nation to nation, or from region to region. We analyse regionally differing voting results of a referendum held in Sweden in lieu of joining the European Monetary Union. We put...Read more...

Journal article

Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Journal of Economic and Human Geography:

The geography of foreign investments in the EU neighbourhood

This paper aims at investigating the drivers of Multinational Enterprise (MNE) investment in countries linked to the `core? of the European Union (EU 15) by different degrees of functional, economic and political integra...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Foreign direct investment and the relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union

This paper investigates whether and to what extent foreign direct investment inflows into the United Kingdom are caused by its membership in the European Union (EU). It reports two main sets of econometric estimates: (a)...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards

The economic consequences of leaving the EU will depend on what policies the UK adopts following Brexit. But lower trade due to reduced integration with EU countries is likely to cost the UK economy far more than is gain...Read more...

CEP Brexit analysis

Life after Brexit : what are the UK?s options outside the European Union?

Suppose the UK votes to leave the European Union (EU): what happens next? This report outlines some of the options for the UK outside the EU and discusses the costs and benefits of each alternative....Read more...

Journal article

Review of Environmental Economics and Policy:

The impact of the European Union emissions trading scheme on regulated firms: what is the evidence after ten years?

This article reviews the recent literature on ex post evaluation of the impacts of the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) on regulated firms in the industrial and power sectors. We summarize the findings ...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Should We Stay or Should We Go? The economic consequences of leaving the EU

We analyze the effects of Brexit on the UK economy. The most important economic consequence of Brexit would likely be reduced trade with EU countries. We consider an optimistic scenario with relatively small increases in...Read more...

CEP election analysis

Immigration and the UK Labour Market

During periods of strong economic growth, migration is and has always been important for filling gaps in the labour market. Perceptions do not seem to line up with the existing academic evidence. On balance, the evidence...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Not so dissatisfied after all? The impact of union coverage on job satisfaction

The links between unionisation and job satisfaction remain controversial. In keeping with the existing literature we find strong statistically significant negative correlations between unionisation and overall job satisf...Read more...

CEP policy analysis

Brexit or Fixit? The Trade and Welfare Effects of Leaving the European Union

Since a speech by the Prime Minister in January 2013 , the Conservative party has been committed to holding a referendum on the UK?s membership of the European Union (EU) in 2017. So this is a good moment to consider wha...Read more...

CEP policy analysis

Immigration, the European Union and the UK Labour Market

During periods of strong economic growth, migration is and has always been important for filling gaps in the labour market. On balance, the evidence for the UK labour market suggests that fears about adverse consequences...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Union Density and Varieties of Coverage: The Anatomy of Union Wage Effects in Germany

Collective bargaining in Germany takes place either at the industry level or at the firm level; collective bargaining coverage is much higher than union density; and not all employees in a covered firm are necessarily co...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Challenges for the dollar as a reserve currency

Gianluca Benigno examines the extent to which the financial crisis has undermined the dollar's pre-eminence....Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Is the WTO Article XXIV Bad?

This paper shows that the WTO's Article XXIV increases the likelihood of free trade, but may worsen world welfare when free trade is not reached and customs unions (CUs) form. We consider a model of many countries. Artic...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Currency Unions in Prospect and Retrospect

We critically review the recent literature on currency unions, and discuss the methodological challenges posed by the empirical assessment of their costs and benefits. In the process, we provide evidence on the economic ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Crisis? What Crisis? Currency vs. Banking in the Financial Crisis of 1931

This paper examines the role of currency and banking in the German financial crisis of 1931 for both Germany and the U.S. We specify a structural dynamic factor model to identify financial and monetary factors separately...Read more...

CEP policy analysis

Still time to reclaim the European Union Emissions Trading System for the European tax payer

The criteria proposed by the EU Commission to identify industries that will receive free emission permits in the third phase of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) are not restrictive enough. Evidence fr...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Slip Sliding Away: Further Union Decline in Germany and Britain

This paper presents the first comparative analysis of the decline in collective bargaining in two European countries where that decline has been most pronounced. Using workplace-level data and a common model, we present ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The Extent of Collective Bargaining and Workplace Representation: Transitions between States and their Determinants. A Comparative Analysis of Germany and Great Britain

Industrial relations are in flux in many nations, perhaps most notably in Germany and Britain. That said, comparatively little is known in any detail of the changing pattern of the institutions of collective bargaining a...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Unions and Workplace Performance in Britain and France

Using nationally representative workplace surveys we examine the relationship between unionization and workplace financial performance in Britain and France. We find that union bargaining is detrimental to workplace perf...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

International Trade Integration: A Disaggregated Approach

This paper investigates the sources and size of trade barriers at the industry level. We derive a micro-founded measure of industry-specific bilateral trade integration that has an in-built control for time-varying multi...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Vulnerability of Currency Pegs: Evidence from Brazil

This paper analyses predictions of a simple model of currency crises in which the peg will be abandoned when the currency overvaluation hits a certain threshold, unknown to the agents. Due to learning about the threshold...Read more...

Manpower Human Resource Lab paper

Performance Pay and Within-Firm Wage Inequality

This paper examines the impact of performance-related pay on wage differentials within firms. Our theoretical framework predicts that, compared to a fixed pay system, pay schemes based on individual effort increase withi...Read more...

Manpower Human Resource Lab paper

From the Two Faces of Unionism to the Facebook Society: Union Voice in a 21st Century Context

Union membership has declined precipitously in the US over the past 40 years. Can anything be done to stem this decline? This paper argues that union voice is an attribute (among others) of union membership that is exper...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Union Organization in Great Britain

Union membership and density in Britain has experienced substantial decline since 1979. The fall in private sector membership and density has been much greater than in the public sector. The size of the union sector, mea...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Accounting for Collective Action: Resource Acquisition and Mobilization in British Unions

The paper uses two data sources to map trends in resource availability for trade unions in Britain. Union resources exist on the one hand in the form of subscription income and accumulated assets shown in union accounts ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Union Free-Riding in Britain and New Zealand

The percentage of workers who choose not to join the union available to them at their workplace has been rising in Britain and New Zealand. Social custom, union instrumentality, the fixed costs of joining, employee perce...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The Union Wage Premium in the US and the UK

This paper presents evidence of both counter-cyclical and secular decline in the union membership wage premiu m in the US and the UK over the last couple of decades. The premium has fallen for most groups of workers, the...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Why Have Workers Stopped Joining Unions?

This paper tracks the rise in the percentage of employees who have never become union members (?nevermembers?) since the early 1980s and shows that it is the reduced likelihood of ever becoming a member rather than the h...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The Spatial Distribution of Economic Activities in the European Union

Abstract This paper considers the spatial distribution of economic activities in the European Union. It has three main aims. (i) To describe the data that is available in the EU and give some idea of the rich spatial dat...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Segmentation, Switching Costs and the Demand for Unionization in Britain

This paper explains why some employees who favor unionization fail to join, and why others who wish to abandon union membership continue paying dues. Our explanation is based on a model where employees incur switching (s...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Cross-Generation Correlations of Union Status For Young People in Britain

In this paper we investigate whether young people whose fathers are union members are themselves more likely to join a union. The work builds upon a large social science literature on intergenerational mobility that, to ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Influences on Trade Union Organising Effectiveness in Great Britain

This paper brings together data from the 1998 Workplace Employee Relations Survey, National Survey of Unions and TUC focus on recognition survey to investigate influences on union organising effectiveness. Organising eff...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Explaining Currency Crises: A Duration Model Approach

This paper is an empirical investigation into the duration of exchange rate episodes characterized by the absence of speculative attacks. We estimate a duration model for OECD countries during the 1970-1997 period. Speci...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

A Simple Model of the Transformational Recession Under a Limited Mobility Constraint

This paper considers the impact on sectoral outputs and employments of rapid and large changes in relative prices, such as those which occurred in transition economies during the 1990s. A simple general equilibrium model...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Optimal Currency Areas: Why Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter? (With an Application to UK Membership in EMU)

Microeconomic efficiency and market transparency argue in favour of UK membership in EMU and for Scotland's membership in the UK monetary union and also in EMU. UK seigniorage (government revenues from money issuance) w...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Union Decline in Britain

In this paper I consider the rapid decline in the unionization rate that has occurred in Britain since the late 1970s. An establishment based analysis reports that the overwhelming factor in explaining falling unionizati...Read more...