Results

Journal article

The Review of Economic Studies: Forthcoming

Conversations at scale: robust AI-led interviews

The advent of large language models (LLMs) creates new opportunities to conduct qualitative interviews at scale, with thousands of respondents, thereby bridging qualitative and quantitative methods. We develop a simple, ...Read more...

Blog

IMF Finance and Development magazine :

Innovation's Unseen Frontier

Notwithstanding Plato's 2,400-year-old proverb, necessity alone is not the mother of invention. It also requires opportunity. An individual's likelihood of becoming an innovator reflects parental background in terms of i...Read more...

Blog

LSE Impact of Social Sciences:

The next innovation revolution should be democratisation

Innovators are most likely to be men from privileged backgrounds. Xavier Jaravel argues that democratisation and widening of access to innovative careers worldwide is key to boosting long-term growth and addressing today...Read more...

CentrePiece article

in brief... Do try this at work: the AI chatbot that can interview at scale

Large language models can conduct interviews at speed and at scale. Friedrich Geiecke and Xavier Jaravel present a new open source platform to support this innovative form of qualitative research....Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Distributional consumer price indices and the measurement of inequality

Differences in consumption patterns between lower- and higher-income households suggest the potential for inflation inequality, but evidence on the scale and drivers of this disparity remains scarce. This column uses 'di...Read more...

Blog

Project Syndicate:

What AI Means for Growth and Jobs

While many commentators warn that AI will undermine employment and offer only modest productivity gains, empirical studies continue to suggest otherwise. With the right policies in place, the technology holds immense pot...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Economic Perspectives:

A practical guide to shift-share instruments

A recent econometric literature shows two distinct paths for identification with shift-share instruments, leveraging either many exogenous shifts or exogenous shares. We present the core logic of both paths and practical...Read more...

Journal article

American Economic Review:

Five facts about MPCs: evidence from a randomized experiment

We present five facts from an experiment on the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of transitory transfers: (1) the one-month MPC on a cash-like transfer is 23 percent; (2) it is substantially higher (61 percent) o...Read more...

Journal article

The Econometrics Journal:

Design-based identification with formula instruments: a review

Many studies in economics use instruments or treatments that combine a set of exogenous shocks with other predetermined variables via a known formula. Examples include shift-share instruments and measures of social or sp...Read more...

Blog

Project Syndicate:

The missing monetary-policy tool

Central banks should prepare - both legally and operationally - to carry out direct transfers to households when conventional monetary policy fails. Recent research shows that stimulus payments would increase consumption...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Design-based fiscal stimulus transfers: Evidence and macro implications

In recent years, and during Covid-19 in particular, many countries have experimented with innovative approaches to fiscal stimulus. This column reports on an experiment in France in which individuals were given a debit c...Read more...

Journal article

The Review of Economic Studies:

Revisiting event study designs: robust and efficient estimation

We develop a framework for difference-in-differences designs with staggered treatment adoption and heterogeneous causal effects. We show that conventional regression-based estimators fail to provide unbiased estimates of...Read more...

Blog

LSE Impact of Social Sciences:

AI can carry out qualitative research at unprecedented scale

The interactional skill of large language models enables them to carry out qualitative research interviews at speed and scale. Demonstrating the ability of these new techniques in a range of qualitative enquiries, Friedr...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of International Economics:

Are trade wars class wars? The importance of trade-induced horizontal inequality

What is the nature of the distributional effects of trade? This paper demonstrates conceptually and empirically the importance of ?trade-induced horizontal inequality,? i.e. inequality that occurs among workers with the ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Five facts about MPCs: evidence from a randomized experiment

We present experimental evidence on the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of transitory transfers, distributing prepaid debit cards with different features. The one-month MPC is substantially higher with a card ex...Read more...

Journal article

The Quarterly Journal of Economics:

Measuring growth in consumer welfare with income-dependent preferences: nonparametric methods and estimates for the United States

How should we measure changes in consumer welfare given observed data on prices and expenditures? This article proposes a nonparametric approach that holds under arbitrary preferences that may depend on observable consum...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The distributional effects of trade: theory and evidence from the United States

How much do consumption patterns matter for the impact of international trade on inequality? In neoclassical trade models, the effects of trade shocks on consumers' purchasing power are governed by the shares of imports ...Read more...

Journal article

AEA Papers and Proceedings:

The local labor market effects of modern manufacturing capital: evidence from France

Using an event study methodology and comprehensive micro data from the French manufacturing sector, we analyze the local labor market effects of investments in modern manufacturing capital, including modern automation te...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Are trade wars class wars? The importance of trade-induced horizontal inequality

What is the nature of the distributional effects of trade? This paper demonstrates conceptually and empirically the importance of "trade-induced horizontal inequality," i.e., inequality brought about by trade shocks that...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Modern manufacturing capital, labor demand and product market dynamics: evidence from France

We use comprehensive micro data in the French manufacturing sector between 1995 and 2017 to document the effects of a fall in the cost of investments in modern manufacturing capital, including modern automation technolog...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Social push and the direction of innovation

Innovators are intrinsically-motivated individuals who use ideas to create new goods and services. This raises the possibility that their social backgrounds may affect the direction of their innovative activity. Consiste...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Nonparametric measurement of long-run growth in consumer welfare

How should we measure long-run changes in consumer welfare? This paper proposes a nonparametric approach that is valid under arbitrary preferences that depend on observable consumer characteristics, e.g. when expenditure...Read more...

Chapter

The effects of automation on labor demand: a survey of the recent literature

in Robots and AI - a new economic era

Robots and artificial intelligence (AI) are powerful forces that will likely have large impacts on the size, direction, and composition of international trade flows. This book discusses how industrial robots, automation,...Read more...

Journal article

Annual Review of Economics:

Inflation inequality: measurement, causes, and policy implications

Does inflation vary across the income distribution? This article reviews the growing literature on inflation inequality, describing recent advances and opportunities for further research in four areas. First, new price i...Read more...

Journal article

The Review of Economic Studies:

Quasi-experimental shift-share research designs

Many studies use shift-share (or "Bartik") instruments, which average a set of shocks with exposure share weights. We provide a new econometric framework for shift-share instrumental variable (SSIV) regressions in which ...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

Trade with China benefited US consumers

International trade is widely viewed as creating winners and losers in an economy. Influential work has documented that US labour markets were heavily disrupted by the surge of imports following China?s joining the World...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

What are the price effects of trade? Evidence from the US and implications for quantitative trade models

This paper finds that U.S. consumer prices fell substantially due to increased trade with China. With comprehensive price micro-data and two complementary identification strategies, we estimate that a 1pp increase in imp...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of the European Economic Association:

Joseph Schumpeter Lecture, EEA Annual Congress 2017: do tax cuts produce more Einsteins? The impacts of financial incentives versus exposure to innovation on the supply of inventors

Many countries provide financial incentives to spur innovation, ranging from tax incentives to research and development grants. In this paper, we study how such financial incentives affect individuals' decisions to pursu...Read more...

Journal article

The Quarterly Journal of Economics:

Who becomes an inventor in America? The importance of exposure to innovation

We characterize the factors that determine who becomes an inventor in the United States, focusing on the role of inventive ability (?nature?) versus environment (?nurture?). Using deidentified data on 1.2 million invento...Read more...

Journal article

The Quarterly Journal of Economics:

The unequal gains from product innovations: evidence from the US retail sector

This article examines how product innovations led to inflation inequality in the United States from 2004 to 2015. Using scanner data from the retail sector, I find that annual inflation for retail products was 0.661 (std...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Do tax cuts produce more Einsteins? The impacts of financial incentives vs. exposure to innovation on the supply of inventors

Many countries provide financial incentives to spur innovation, ranging from tax incentives to research and development grants. In this paper, we study how such financial incentives affect individuals' decisions to pursu...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Lost Einsteins: who becomes an inventor in America?

Who are America?s most successful inventors ? and what can we learn from their experiences in designing policies to stimulate innovation? To answer these questions, former CEP director John Van Reenen and his colleagues ...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Lost Einsteins: How exposure to innovation influences who becomes an inventor

Article by Alex Bell, Raj Chetty, Xavier Jaravel, Neviana Petkova and John Van Reenen: Relatively little is known about the factors that induce people to become inventors. Using data on the lives of over one million inv...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Who becomes an inventor in America? The importance of exposure to innovation

We characterize the factors that determine who becomes an inventor in the United States, focusing on the role of inventive ability ('nature') vs. environment ('nurture'). Using de-identified data on 1.2 million inventors...Read more...