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Author: John Muellbauer

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SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper
House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the U.S. Experience

Most US house price models break down in the mid-2000's, due to the omission of exogenous changes in mortgage credit supply (associated with the sub-prime mortgage boom) from house price-to-rent ratio and inverted housin...Read more...

John V. Duca, John Muellbauer and Anthony Murphy

March 2011

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper
Shifting Credit Standards and the Boom and Bust in U.S. House Prices

The U.S. house price boom has been linked to an unsustainable easing of mortgage credit standards. However, standard time series models of US house prices omit credit constraints and perform poorly in the 2000’s. We inco...Read more...

John V. Duca, John Muellbauer and Anthony Murphy

March 2011

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper
Modelling and Forecasting with County Court Data: Regional Mortgage Possession Claims and Orders in England and Wales

This paper presents new quarterly panel data models for county court claims and orders for mortgage possession for seven regions of England plus Wales. Different types of data on mortgage possessions are compared. The in...Read more...

Janine Aron and John Muellbauer

February 2011

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper
Modelling and Forecasting UK Mortgage Arrears and Possessions

This paper presents new models for aggregate UK data on mortgage possessions (foreclosures) and mortgage arrears (payment delinquencies). The innovations include the treatment of difficult to observe variations in loan q...Read more...

Janine Aron and John Muellbauer

August 2010

SERC/Urban and Spatial Programme Discussion Paper
Housing Markets and the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the Future

An unsustainable weakening of credit standards induced a US mortgage and housing bubble whose consumption impact was amplified by innovations altering the collateral role of housing. In countries with more stable credit ...Read more...

John V. Duca, John Muellbauer and Anthony Murphy

April 2010