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CentrePiece article

Deep trade agreements: proliferation, provisions, impact

Modern trade agreements between countries contain a host of provisions beyond simple tariff reductions on traded products. Research by Holger Breinlich, Valentina Corradi, Nadia Rocha, Michele Ruta, Jo?o Santos Silva and...Read more...

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Vox EU:

Using machine learning to assess the impact of deep trade agreements

Modern preferential trade agreements contain a host of provisions that go beyond tariff liberalisation. By adapting techniques from the machine learning literature, this column develops data-driven methods for selecting ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Trade, gravity and aggregation

Gravity regressions are a common tool in the empirical international trade literature and serve an important function for many policy purposes. We study to what extent micro-level parameters can be recovered from gravity...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Machine learning in international trade research - evaluating the impact of trade agreements

Modern trade agreements contain a large number of provisions besides tariff reductions, in areas as diverse as services trade, competition policy, trade-related investment measures, or public procurement. Existing resear...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Has the euro increased trade?

Joao Santos Silva and Silvana Tenreyro investigate whether the new currency has delivered the promised growth in trade between member countries...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Currency Unions in Prospect and Retrospect

We critically review the recent literature on currency unions, and discuss the methodological challenges posed by the empirical assessment of their costs and benefits. In the process, we provide evidence on the economic ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Trading Partners and Trading Volumes: Implementing the Helpman-Melitz-Rubinstein Model Empirically

Helpman, Melitz, and Rubinstein (2008)?HMR?present a rich theoretical model to study the determinants of bilateral trade flows across countries. The model is then empirically implemented through a two-stage estimation pr...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Further Simulation Evidence on the Performance of the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimator

We extend the simulation results given in Santos-Silva and Tenreyro (2006, `The Log of Gravity?, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 88, pp.641-658) by considering data generated as a finite mixture of gamma variates...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

On the Existence of the Maximum Likelihood Estimates for Poisson Regression

We note that the existence of the maximum likelihood estimates for Poisson regression depends on the data configuration. Because standard software does not check for this problem, the practitioner may be surprised to fin...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The Log of Gravity

Although economists have long been aware of Jensen's inequality, many econometric applications have neglected an important implication of it: the standard practice of interpreting the parameters of log-linearized models ...Read more...