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Author: Nicholas Oulton

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CEP discussion paper
Space-time (in)consistency in the national accounts: causes and cures

In early 2014 the World Bank published the main findings of the 2011 International Comparison Program (ICP). The result was surprising: the world is apparently richer and more equal than we would have expected based on e...Read more...

Nicholas Oulton

1 May 2015

CEP discussion paper
Integrated estimates of capital stocks and services for the United Kingdom: 1950-2013

This paper presents annual estimates of fixed capital stocks and capital services for the United Kingdom, 1950-2013, for the whole economy and for the market sector. Our estimates cover eight asset types (structures, mac...Read more...

Nicholas Oulton and Gavin Wallis

31 March 2015

CEP occasional paper
Medium and long run prospects for UK growth in the aftermath of the financial crisis

The productivity performance of the UK economy in the period 1990-2007 was excellent. Based entirely on pre-crisis data, and using a two-sector growth model, I project the future growth rate of GDP per hour in the market...Read more...

Nicholas Oulton

22 October 2013

CEP discussion paper
Long and Short-Term Effects of the Financial Crisis on Labour Productivity, Capital and Output

The behaviour of labour productivity in the United Kingdom since the onset of the recession in early 2008 constitutes a puzzle. Over four years after the recession began labour productivity is still below its previous pe...Read more...

Nicholas Oulton and Maria Sebastia-Barriel

31 January 2013

CEP occasional paper
Has the growth of real GDP in the UK been overstated because of mis-measurement of banking output?

If official figures overstated the growth of banking output in the UK in the recent boom, does this mean that GDP growth was overstated too? The answer is no. It is truer to say that if banking output was overstated then...Read more...

Nicholas Oulton

22 January 2013

CentrePiece article
Hooray for GDP!

The idea of having GDP growth as the main target of economic policy has been under attack in recent years. The article answers some of the criticisms and argues that continued GDP growth would be good for the UK - and no...Read more...

Nicholas Oulton

19 December 2012

CEP occasional paper
Hooray for GDP!

Should raising the growth rate of GDP per capita be a policy goal of governments in general, and of the British government in particular? Many people would say no, for the following reasons: 1) GDP is hopelessly flawed a...Read more...

Nicholas Oulton

6 August 2012

CEP discussion paper
The Wealth and Poverty of Nations: True PPPs for 141 Countries

I set out a new method for estimating true (Konus) PPPs. Household consumption per head deflated by these PPPs answers the question: by how much must the average expenditure per head of poor country A be increased to ena...Read more...

Nicholas Oulton

Revised February 2012

CEP discussion paper
Long Term Implications of the ICT Revolution: Applying the Lessons of Growth Theory and Growth Accounting

How big a boost to long run growth can countries expect from the ICT revolution? I use the results of growth accounting and the insights from a two-sector growth model to answer this question. The use of a two-sector rat...Read more...

Nicholas Oulton

November 2010

CEP discussion paper
Rates of Return and Alternative Measures of Capital Input: 14 Countries and 10 Branches, 1971-2005

We employ the EU KLEMS database to estimate the real rate of return to capital in 14 countries (11 in the EU, three outside the EU) in 10 branches of the market economy plus the market economy as a whole. Our measure of ...Read more...

Nicholas Oulton and Ana Rincon-Aznar

November 2009

CEP discussion paper
How to Measure Living Standards and Productivity

This paper sets out a general algorithm for calculating true cost-of-living indices or true producer price indices when demand is not homothetic, i.e. when not all expenditure elasticities are equal to one. In principle,...Read more...

Nicholas Oulton

Revised February 2012

CEP discussion paper
Convergence of Firm-Level Productivity, Globalisation, Information Technology and Competition: Evidence from France

Studies of firm-level data have shown that there is a huge dispersion of productivity across firms even when industries are narrowly defined. So there is a significant opportunity for the least productive firms to catch ...Read more...

Paul-Antoine Chevalier, Remy Lecat and Nicholas Oulton

March 2009

CentrePiece article
How to measure the rising cost of living

Nicholas Oulton explains the problems in creating an accurate measure of inflation - and shows how inflation hurts the poor more than the rich....Read more...

Nicholas Oulton

October 2008

CEP discussion paper
Jeremy Greenwood and Per Krusell, 'Growth Accounting with Investment-Specific Technological Progress: A Discussion of Two Approaches' A Rejoinder

The May 2007 issue of the Journal of Monetary Economics published a paper of mine entitled `Investment-Specific Technological Progress and Growth Accounting? which critiqued the work of Greenwood, Hercowitz and Krusell. ...Read more...

Nicholas Oulton

June 2007

CEP discussion paper
Chain Indices of the Cost of Living and the Path-Dependence Problem: An Empirical Solution

This paper proposes an empirically feasible method for correcting the path-dependence bias of chain indices of the cost of living. Chain indices are discrete approximations to Divisia indices and it is well known that th...Read more...

Nicholas Oulton

May 2007

EDS discussion paper
Productivity Growth and the Role of ICT in the UK: An Industry View, 1970-2000

Read more...

Nicholas Oulton and Sylaja Srinivasan

October 2005

CEP discussion paper
Ex Post Versus Ex Ante Measures of the User Cost of Capital

When doing growth accounting, should we use ex post or ex ante measures of user costs to calculate the contribution of capital? The answer, based on a simple model of temporary equilibrium, is that ex post is better in t...Read more...

Nicholas Oulton

July 2005

CEP discussion paper
Productivity Growth and the Role of ICT in the United Kingdom: An Industry View, 1970-2000

We use a new industry-level dataset to quantify the role of ICT in explaining productivity growth in the UK, 1970-2000. The dataset is for 34 industries covering the whole economy (31 in the market sector). Using growth ...Read more...

Nicholas Oulton and Sylaja Srinivasan

March 2005

CEP discussion paper
A Statistical Framework for the Analysis of Productivity and Sustainable Development

To analyse the consequences of the changing economic structure of the UK, we need a set of statistics broken down by industry that are consistent with the whole economy measures available from the national accounts. The ...Read more...

Nicholas Oulton

April 2004