The year 2025 was unprecedented in the frequency, complexity, and volatility of US trade policy interventions. This column uses a new database tracking US tariff announcements during the year to show that confusion about the current state of tariff policy led to a decline in US imports that was similar in size to the reduction caused by tariff increases alone, meaning that confusion doubled the negative impact of tariffs. Product customisation, relationship trust, and partner reputation can help firms maintain trade activity during information shocks.

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8 September 2026

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VoxEU

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https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/tariff-confusion

This Blog is published under the centre's Trade programme.