This paper examines the impact of credit frictions arising from firm-level default risk on aggregate economic performance. We build a micro-to-macro model with heterogeneous firms and sector-specific production functions, showing that perceived default risk is a sufficient statistic for credit frictions. Using UK administrative data (2004?2019) matched to S&P risk measures, counterfactual estimates reveal that relaxing frictions raises output by 25% and wages by 23%. Ignoring equilibrium wage adjustments overstates output gains, while fixed-capital misallocation approaches understate them. Most gains reflect aggregate capital accumulation. Credit frictions remain above pre-crisis levels, reshape firm size dynamics, increase misallocation across firms, and dampen productivity growth over time.

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29 July 2026     Paper Number CEPDP2201

Download PDF - The equilibrium impact of credit frictions: evidence from default risk using firm-level data

This CEP discussion paper is published under the centre's Growth programme.